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Thursday, April 24

Noteworthy macro moves today: Gold +1.5%. US 2Y Treasury Bond +0.1%. US 10Y Treasury Bond +0.5%. 

Recent economic data from the United States indicates a mixed outlook, with initial jobless claims rising slightly to 222,000 while durable goods orders surged by 9.2% in March, significantly exceeding expectations of a mere 2% increase. This robust growth in manufacturing orders is attributed to businesses rushing to place purchases ahead of impending tariffs.

In Europe, Germany's Ifo Business Climate index improved unexpectedly amid increased public spending aimed at stimulating growth despite ongoing tariff threats from the U.S., suggesting some resilience within its economy. Conversely, sentiment among UK manufacturers continues to decline sharply as evidenced by negative readings on new orders and output forecasts amidst escalating costs and uncertainty surrounding trade policies.

The broader market remains sensitive due to heightened geopolitical tensions stemming from renewed U.S.-China tariff disputes that have escalated dramatically this month; China has retaliated against recent American tariffs with significant increases on various imports. As these developments unfold alongside fluctuating commodity prices—gold reaching record highs—the overall investor mood reflects caution amid fears of potential recessionary impacts linked directly back to these trade conflicts.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) [+2.3%, +575.5M]
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has experienced a price increase of 2.3% in pre-market trading on Thursday. This rally coincides with President Donald Trump's remarks regarding potential tariff reductions on Chinese imports, which have positively influenced U.S. stock markets, particularly within technology sectors crucial to the semiconductor industry. Additionally, strong economic data released today revealed a significant rise in durable goods orders and a slight uptick in initial jobless claims, both of which align with favorable market sentiment towards technology equities. Among SMH's holdings, Texas Instruments reported robust Q1 results, while Nvidia faces challenges from export restrictions affecting its chip deliveries to Chinese firms. Lam Research Corporation also exceeded financial expectations, expressing confidence in future growth despite tariff uncertainties. Applied Materials is set to announce its fiscal Q2 earnings report, reinforcing its leadership in semiconductor manufacturing solutions.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [+1.3%]
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) experienced a price increase of 1.3% in the pre-market session on Thursday. This movement coincides with a significant rise in gold prices, with June gold futures advancing notably amid heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning the U.S.-China trade situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Gold traded above 3,300, reflecting investor interest as concerns about inflation and economic stability mount. The U.S. Treasury Secretary's remarks regarding tariffs have further intensified these anxieties. Additionally, gold's appeal has been bolstered by a weaker dollar.

CMCSA | -4.5% | -5.8B
Comcast Corp | Cable & Satellite
Comcast Corporation reported its first-quarter 2025 results, revealing an adjusted EPS of 1.09, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of 0.98 by over 11%. Revenue for the quarter was 29.89 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of 29.76 billion, though it marked a decline from 30.06 billion in the same period last year. The company experienced a loss of 199,000 domestic broadband customers, which was worse than the FactSet estimate of a loss of 146,100. Net income decreased to 3.375 billion from 3.857 billion year-over-year, while operating income fell to 5.658 billion from 5.810 billion last year. Discussions on social media highlighted these figures and Comcast's market capitalization at approximately 130.33 billion, contributing to the recent price movement. Following the earnings announcement, CMCSA saw a decline of nearly 5%.

IBM | -6.5% | -13.7B
International Business Machines Corp | IT Consulting & Other Services
International Business Machines Corp reported its first-quarter results on April 23, 2025, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.60, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.42 but down from $1.68 year-over-year. Revenue increased by 0.5% to $14.54 billion, surpassing expectations of $14.39 billion. However, consulting revenue fell by 2% to $5.07 billion, while infrastructure revenue declined by 6% to $2.89 billion. The company guided for second-quarter revenue between $16.4 billion and $16.75 billion, ahead of the consensus estimate of $16.31 billion. Following the earnings announcement, shares slid in after-hours trading, reflecting mixed performance indicators amidst ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. Social media discussions highlighted the software revenue increase of 7%, despite the overall decline in after-hours trading of approximately 7%. CEO Arvind Krishna noted strong demand for generative AI but expressed caution regarding potential impacts from government contract cuts.

LUV | -3.3% | -480.6M
Southwest Airlines Co | Passenger Airlines
Southwest Airlines Co has withdrawn its earnings guidance for 2025 and 2026 due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, as reported late Wednesday. The airline plans capacity reductions starting in the second half of 2025 to align with anticipated lower travel demand. In its first quarter results, Southwest reported an adjusted loss of $0.13 per share, better than the expected loss of $0.18, while operating revenue was $6.43 billion, slightly above consensus estimates. Despite these results, concerns about declining consumer spending have led to a notable drop in stock value during after-hours trading, reversing earlier gains. Additionally, the company anticipates second-quarter revenue per seat mile to be flat to down 4% year-over-year, reflecting challenges in the current demand environment.

NOK | -7.6% | -2.1B
Nokia Oyj | Communications Equipment
Nokia Oyj reported a decline in its Q1 performance, with net sales of EUR 4.39 billion, down from EUR 4.44 billion a year earlier. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were EUR 0.03, falling short of the expected EUR 0.05 and significantly lower than last year's EPS of EUR 0.09. The company indicated that new tariffs could reduce its comparable operating profit by EUR 20 to 30 million in Q2, complicating the path to achieving the upper limit of its profit guidance for 2025. Furthermore, Nokia experienced a substantial year-over-year decline of 74% in operating profit to EUR 156 million, which was below estimates of EUR 280 million, alongside a EUR 120 million charge in mobile networks. These factors have coincided with a significant drop in share price, with NOK shares declining by approximately 8%.

TXN | +9.0% | +13.5B
Texas Instruments Inc | Semiconductors
Texas Instruments reported strong Q1 financial results, with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.28, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.07. Revenue reached $4.07 billion, exceeding expectations of $3.91 billion. The company provided optimistic guidance for Q2, projecting EPS between $1.21 and $1.47 and revenue in the range of $4.17 billion to $4.53 billion. This performance reflects a year-over-year revenue increase of 11%, driven by a 13% rise in analog revenue to $3.21 billion. Following the announcements, shares increased significantly in pre-market trading, reflecting positive market sentiment. Additionally, discussions on social media emphasized the company's return to growth after a nine-quarter decline, although JPMorgan lowered its price target for Texas Instruments from $230 to $195, citing tariff risks and a muted margin outlook despite the favorable earnings report.

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