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Wednesday, November 27

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today include: US Dollar Index -0.6%. Ethereum +4.8%. US 10Y Treasury Bond +0.4%.

Recent economic data from the United States has shown mixed signals, with wholesale inventories rising unexpectedly by 0.2% in October and a significant narrowing of the goods trade deficit to $99.1 billion for the same month, down from over $108 billion previously. These figures come ahead of key releases expected later today that include revised GDP growth estimates confirming an annualized rate of 2.8%, durable goods orders, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation metrics.

In Europe, market sentiment is being influenced by comments from ECB official Isabel Schnabel regarding limited scope for further interest rate cuts amid signs of stagnation in the Eurozone economy. This dovish stance contributed to fluctuations in European equity markets as investors weigh potential impacts on monetary policy against ongoing geopolitical tensions related to U.S.-China tariffs announced by President-elect Donald Trump.

Additionally, there are notable movements within global currencies; specifically, USD/JPY fell significantly due to expectations surrounding Fed policies contrasted with those anticipated from Japan's central bank amidst tariff threats affecting broader risk sentiments across financial assets globally. The dollar index continues its downward trend while gold prices have seen modest gains reflecting safe-haven buying behavior among investors during this period marked by uncertainty.

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) [-0.6%]
The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) has declined by 0.6%, coinciding with a 0.53% drop in the U.S. Dollar Index, which has reached a one-week low of 106.45. This weakening of the dollar is attributed to President Trump's tariff pledges and mixed performance in global markets, as U.S. futures have also shown declines. Commodities such as gold have risen, reflecting broader economic concerns, particularly following a significant drop in new single-family home sales and a decrease in the S&P Case-Shiller index growth rate. Additionally, traders are cautious ahead of key economic data releases concerning inflation and employment trends. The USD/JPY pair has also dropped, suggesting a mild inverse correlation that may be influencing the recent decline in the U.S. Dollar Index.

iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) [+2.6%]
The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) has seen a notable increase of 2.6% in pre-market trading. This uptick follows significant gains in Chinese stocks, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising and the Hang Seng Index surging. Notably, the ETF's performance was buoyed by strong returns from key holdings such as JD, TCOM, and LI. Additionally, the broader recovery in the sector was supported by a less severe decline in industrial profits for October compared to previous months. Nonetheless, concerns linger regarding geopolitical tensions and tariff threats impacting trade flows, which have raised caution among market participants. Social media discussions highlight challenges facing China's industrial base, including intense domestic competition and declining foreign smartphone sales, further contextualizing FXI's performance amid ongoing economic concerns.

HPQ | -8.1% | -2.9B
HP Inc | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
HP Inc. reported its fiscal Q4 results on November 26, 2024, revealing earnings per share of $0.93, which met analyst expectations, alongside revenues of $14.05 billion, exceeding estimates. The company's guidance for Q1 projected adjusted EPS between $0.70 and $0.76, below the consensus estimate of $0.86. Additionally, fiscal year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance was set at $3.45 to $3.75, compared to the expected $3.60. Following the announcements, HP's stock price dropped significantly. The personal systems segment reported revenue of $9.6 billion, with commercial sales rising by 5% year-over-year, while consumer sales declined by 4%. The operating margin was noted at 8.5%, slightly below the estimated 8.66%. These results have contributed to ongoing discussions regarding HP's financial performance and market outlook on social media platforms.

ADSK | -7.9% | -5.0B
Autodesk Inc | Application Software
Autodesk Inc. reported its third-quarter results on November 26, 2024, with a non-GAAP EPS of 2.17, exceeding estimates of 2.12. Revenue reached 1.57 billion, slightly above the consensus of 1.56 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase. The company provided full-year guidance for FY25, projecting non-GAAP EPS between 8.29 and 8.35 and revenue between 6.115 billion and 6.130 billion. Despite these results, Autodesk's shares declined by approximately 6.5% following the earnings announcement, attributed to ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges. Additionally, Janesh Moorjani was appointed as CFO, effective December 16. In after-hours trading, the stock dropped by over 7%, despite a reported GAAP operating margin of 22% and net income of 275 million, which marked a 14% increase year-over-year. Guidance for Q4 FY2025 includes revenue projections of 1.6 billion.

DELL | -11.8%| -10.5B
Dell Technologies Inc | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Dell Technologies Inc. saw a substantial decline in its stock price following the release of its third-quarter financial results and a disappointing fourth-quarter revenue forecast. The company reported Q3 revenue of $24.37 billion, which fell short of the analyst consensus estimate of $24.65 billion. Despite adjusted earnings per share of $2.15 exceeding expectations, the guidance for Q4 revenue, projected between $24 billion and $25 billion, was below the anticipated $25.59 billion. Social media discussions highlighted concerns over a slowdown in spending on AI servers, contributing to a pre-market drop of 13%. The Infrastructure Solutions Group showed a robust year-over-year revenue increase of 34%, while the Client Solutions Group faced challenges, notably an 18% decline in consumer revenue. Additionally, Dell's CFO sold $1.15 million worth of shares shortly before the earnings report, raising eyebrows amid significant stock volatility.

WDAY | -11.7%| -7.4B
Workday Inc | Application Software
Workday Inc reported its third-quarter results on November 26, 2024, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.89, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.76. Revenue reached $2.16 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.13 billion and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.8%. Subscription revenue also increased to $1.96 billion, up 15.8% year-over-year. Despite these positive earnings, the company revised its fiscal 2025 subscription revenue outlook downward to $7.703 billion from a previous range of $7.70 billion to $7.725 billion, which disappointed investors. Following the earnings announcement, Workday's stock experienced a significant decline in after-hours trading, dropping nearly 10%. Analysts expressed concerns regarding the company's fiscal 2026 guidance, which indicated a weaker subscription growth forecast of around 14%.

CRWD | -2.2% | -1.9B
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc | Systems Software
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc reported a net loss of $16.8 million for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, a stark contrast to a profit of $26.67 million in the same period last year. Despite this, revenue increased to $1.01 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $982.36 million, reflecting a 29% year-over-year growth. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.93, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.81. The company anticipates fourth-quarter revenue between $1.03 billion and $1.04 billion, with adjusted earnings projected at $0.84 to $0.86 per share. Following these results, several analysts raised their price targets significantly, with Needham setting a new target at $420 and Evercore ISI increasing its target to $400. Social media discussions highlighted the strong earnings performance, but also noted concerns regarding lingering effects from a previous outage that may have impacted sales cycles.

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