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Friday, April 25

Noteworthy macro moves today: Gold -1.5%. Oil (WTI) -1.3%. United States Copper Index Fund -3.2%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) +3.3%. Alphabet Inc (GOOG) +3.3%. Meta Platforms Inc (META) +2.4%. 

Recent market movements are significantly influenced by ongoing developments in U.S.-China trade relations. President Trump's comments regarding potential tariff levels have created mixed sentiment, with some optimism about easing tensions as China considers suspending tariffs on certain U.S. imports; however, contradictory statements from Chinese officials indicate that no formal negotiations are currently taking place.

In the economic landscape, key data releases show a decline in consumer confidence and retail sales figures across major economies. The GfK Consumer Confidence Index for the UK dropped to -23 amid rising living costs and global trade concerns, while Canadian retail sales showed signs of recovery but still reflect underlying weaknesses following previous declines.

Additionally, central bank policies remain pivotal as markets anticipate further monetary policy adjustments due to inflationary pressures linked to tariffs. ECB members express concern over disinflation risks stemming from these external factors which may lead them toward rate cuts later this year amidst an uncertain growth outlook within Europe.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) [-1.1%]
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) experienced a decline of over 1%. Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions persist, with China denying any current negotiations with the U.S., potentially affecting the sector. Intel reported better-than-expected first-quarter revenue but issued a weak second-quarter forecast, contributing to negative sentiment. Among SMH's holdings, Intel was the top detractor, alongside Broadcom, Applied Materials, Analog Devices, and Lam Research, all posting losses. Social media discussions highlighted concerns over the absence of references to AI chips and anticipated decreased demand for certain stocks linked to SMH due to a decline in DRAM growth. Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 Index also fell, reflecting broader market sentiment that may be influencing SMH's performance.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [-1.4%]
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has seen a price decline of 1.4% in the pre-market session, coinciding with a notable drop in June gold prices, which are down approximately 1% to around 3,315 per ounce. This decrease reflects broader market fluctuations influenced by currency valuations against the USD amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Additionally, reports indicate that China is contemplating suspending some U.S. imports from high tariffs, which has not provided support for gold prices. Earlier social media discussions noted a slip in GLD gold prices related to potential trade negotiations, while a recent surge in another gold-related ETF highlighted the volatility and shifting dynamics within the precious metals market.

KNSL | -10.8% | -1.1B
Kinsale Capital Group Inc | Property & Casualty Insurance
Kinsale Capital Group Inc reported its Q1 financial results on April 24, 2025. The company posted operating earnings of $3.71 per diluted share, exceeding the analyst estimate of $3.24. Revenue for the quarter was $423.4 million, slightly below the expected $425.4 million but up from $372.8 million a year earlier. Net income declined to $89.2 million, or $3.83 per diluted share, from $98.9 million, or $4.24 per diluted share, in the same period of 2024. The report indicated a 7.9% increase in gross written premiums to $484.3 million and a combined ratio of 82.1%. Notably, the company faced after-tax catastrophe losses of $17.8 million related to the Palisades Fire. Social media discussions highlighted concerns regarding a significant decline in pricing for Kinsale's commercial property book, which constitutes 25% of their premiums, raising questions about market conditions and their business model.

INTC | -7.2% | -6.1B
Intel Corp | Semiconductors
Intel Corp reported its first-quarter financial results, revealing revenue of 12.67 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of 12.3 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were reported at 0.13, exceeding expectations of 0.01. Despite this, the company issued a cautious second-quarter forecast, projecting revenue between 11.2 billion and 12.4 billion, below the anticipated 12.84 billion, alongside an expected loss of 0.32 per share compared to a projected loss of 0.16. Additionally, Intel plans to lay off 20,000 employees as part of restructuring efforts and aims to reduce operating expenses by 500 million by 2025. Following the mixed earnings report and disappointing guidance, Intel shares dropped significantly in after-hours trading.

GOOGL | +4.2% | +85.5B
Alphabet Inc | Interactive Media & Services
Alphabet Inc. has experienced a notable price increase, aligning with a significant upward movement in the Interactive Media & Services sector. The company recently reported robust first-quarter results, showcasing earnings per share of 2.81, which exceeded the consensus estimate of 2.01. Revenue reached 90.23 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of 89.32 billion. Google Cloud revenue also saw substantial growth, rising to 12.26 billion from 9.57 billion year-over-year. Additionally, Alphabet announced a share repurchase authorization of up to 70 billion and declared a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend to 0.21 per share, payable on June 16, 2025. Social media discussions highlighted the positive reception of these announcements, particularly the share buyback program, which contributed to a sharp increase in stock price following the earnings report.

TMUS | -4.8% | -13.9B
T-Mobile US Inc | Wireless Telecommunication Services
T-Mobile US Inc. reported its Q1 2025 earnings, revealing earnings per share of 2.58, surpassing the consensus estimate of 2.47, and revenue of 20.89 billion, exceeding expectations of 20.62 billion. Despite these positive results, the company fell short of analyst estimates for postpaid phone net additions, reporting only 495,000 against expectations of 506,400. Additionally, postpaid churn increased to 0.91% from 0.86% year-over-year. Following the earnings announcement, T-Mobile's stock declined approximately 5%. The company raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of 33.20 billion to 33.70 billion while maintaining its forecast for postpaid net customer additions between 5.5 million and 6 million for the year. The broader Wireless Telecommunication Services sector is also experiencing significant downward movement.

META | +2.8% | +38.6B
Meta Platforms Inc | Interactive Media & Services
Meta Platforms Inc. is experiencing a price increase, coinciding with significant upward movement in the Interactive Media & Services sector. The company has recently laid off an unspecified number of employees in its Reality Labs division, particularly affecting the Oculus Studios unit, as part of a restructuring aimed at improving efficiency in mixed reality content development. The stock's rise follows earnings that exceeded expectations, aligning with similar gains seen in Alphabet Inc., which reported strong Q1 earnings and announced a substantial share repurchase plan. Social media discussions highlight Meta's recent price movements, noting a surge in ad revenue and optimism regarding future performance amid ongoing tech sector strength.

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