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Thursday, March 12

Noteworthy macro moves today: Oil (WTI) +5.3%. USD/CNH -0.2%. Oil (Brent) +5.7%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) -1.3%. Broadcom Inc (AVGO) -1.1%. Alphabet Inc (GOOG) -1.0%. 

Global equity markets are trading lower following a significant surge in oil prices driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly related to Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. The Brent crude price briefly exceeded $100 per barrel, raising concerns about inflation and potential rate hikes from central banks, which has negatively impacted market sentiment across various regions.

In the U.S., Initial Jobless Claims released this morning showed a slight decrease to 213K, slightly below expectations of 215K, indicating stability in the labor market despite ongoing economic uncertainties. Additionally, the Goods Trade Balance reported a deficit of $54.5 billion for January, significantly better than the anticipated $66 billion deficit, suggesting stronger export performance that may help mitigate inflationary pressures.

The housing sector also presented mixed signals, with Housing Starts rising to an annualized rate of 1.487 million units—well above forecasts—but Building Permits fell sharply by 5.4%, raising concerns about future construction activity amid fluctuating economic conditions influenced by rising energy costs and geopolitical tensions affecting consumer confidence and spending patterns.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [+5.9%]
Crude oil prices surged, with Brent approaching $100 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate nearing $94, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. U.S. forces engaged Iranian naval assets, raising supply concerns. The International Energy Agency's decision to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves failed to stabilize prices amid ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil transit route. The United States Oil Fund (USO) saw a notable price increase as retail sentiment reacted to these supply issues. Additionally, reports emerged of an evacuation of ships from Oman's Mina Al Fahal terminal, which exports approximately 1 million barrels daily. Social media discussions highlighted the U.S. plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and noted operations at Iraqi ports halting, affecting 4 million barrels per day, further contributing to supply disruption fears.

iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG) [-1.6%]
The iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG) has experienced a decline of 1.6% in pre-market trading. The German economy ministry has issued a warning about the potential repercussions of a US trade probe, emphasizing the need to avoid new tariffs that might breach the EU-US agreement established in summer 2025. This concern may heighten trepidations regarding international trade dynamics affecting Germany. Additionally, oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel due to attacks on tankers by Iran, raising inflationary concerns that could threaten economic stability in Germany. Goldman Sachs has also raised its U.S. inflation forecasts in light of these developments. The yield on the German 10-year bund has reached its highest level since October 2023. Among the ETF's holdings, significant declines were noted for DB and ADDYY, while SAP and FMS posted modest increases. The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) has dropped slightly, reflecting broader market sentiment affecting EWG.

DB | -5.7% | -3.3B
Deutsche Bank AG | Diversified Capital Markets
Deutsche Bank AG's stock has declined significantly in pre-market trading, down 5.7% since Wednesday. This follows news that four former employees are suing the bank for over $800 million, alleging reputational damage linked to the Monte dei Paschi case. Deutsche Bank has stated its intention to "defend itself against them robustly," contesting claims of inflated losses. Additionally, social media discussions have surfaced regarding the bank's plans to close all redemptions and a flagged $30 billion exposure to private credit. While Deutsche Bank acknowledged this exposure in its annual report, it asserted that it does not foresee significant direct risk from non-bank financial institutions, although it warned of potential indirect credit risks through connected portfolios and counterparties.

GFS | -4.5% | -1.1B
Globalfoundries Inc | Semiconductors
GlobalFoundries Inc. has announced a secondary public offering of 20 million ordinary shares, priced at $42.00 each, with all shares being sold by its largest shareholder, Mubadala Technology Investment Company. Concurrently, the company plans to repurchase approximately $300 million worth of its own shares, part of a broader $500 million authorization approved by the board in February 2026. This announcement follows a recent decline in after-hours trading, reflecting market reactions to the shareholder's stake sale. Social media discussions have surfaced regarding the rationale behind selling shares while simultaneously repurchasing them, indicating some confusion among users. Additionally, the Russell 2000 Index has declined, which may be influencing the overall market dynamics affecting GlobalFoundries, which has dropped significantly.

DKS | +3.8% | +634.6M
DICK'S Sporting Goods Inc | Other Specialty Retail
DICK'S Sporting Goods reported its fourth-quarter results, revealing a net income of $128.34 million, a decrease from $299.97 million the previous year. The company's revenue reached $6.226 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $6.069 billion and significantly up from $3.894 billion year-on-year. Adjusted earnings per share stood at $3.45, exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.94. For fiscal year 2026, DICK'S forecasts net sales between $22.1 billion and $22.4 billion, with adjusted EPS expected to range from $13.50 to $14.50. Additionally, the Board of Directors announced a 3% increase in the annual dividend to $5.00 per share. Social media discussions highlighted the strong Q4 performance and ongoing store expansion initiatives, despite caution regarding EPS guidance due to dilution from the Foot Locker deal. The company noted a rise attributed to a reported 4.5% full-year comparable sales growth for 2025.

DG | -5.1% | -1.5B
Dollar General Corp | Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Dollar General Corp reported strong fourth-quarter results, with earnings per share of 1.93, surpassing estimates of 1.64, and net sales reaching 10.911 billion, exceeding expectations. The company noted a 4.3% increase in same-store sales and plans for 4,730 real estate projects in fiscal 2026. Despite these positive metrics, guidance for fiscal year 2026 projected earnings per share between 7.10 and 7.35, slightly below the consensus estimate of 7.25. Social media discussions highlighted a 2.6% increase in traffic and a 1.7% rise in ticket size, reflecting continued patronage from value-conscious consumers. Nonetheless, the stock experienced a decline of approximately 5.5% following the earnings announcement, suggesting a market reaction that reflects disappointment despite the robust financial performance and growth initiatives.

CF | +5.2% | +1.2B
CF Industries Holdings Inc | Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
CF Industries Holdings Inc has seen a notable increase in its stock price, rising by approximately 5.2% in pre-market trading. This movement aligns with broader trends in the fertilizer sector, which has been buoyed by ongoing supply disruptions. Reports indicate that urea prices have surged significantly, reaching $591.75 per ton, driven by concerns over shipments transiting through the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating tensions in the region. Social media discussions have highlighted CF Industries as one of the top gainers on the S&P 500, reflecting excitement around its performance in light of these supply challenges. Additionally, pre-market data shows that CF is benefiting from the overall upward momentum in fertilizer stocks, further influenced by the geopolitical landscape affecting supply chains.

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