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Friday, May 9

Noteworthy macro moves today: Ethereum +5.9%. Gold +0.8%. Oil (WTI) +1.4%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) +1.1%. 

Recent market movements are significantly influenced by ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, with expectations for potential tariff reductions being a focal point ahead of talks scheduled this weekend in Switzerland. The optimism surrounding these discussions has contributed to gains across global equity indices, particularly following President Trump's announcement regarding a new bilateral trade deal with the UK that aims to cut tariffs on various goods.

In economic data releases, Canada's unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 6.9% in April from 6.7%, surpassing forecasts and indicating challenges faced by businesses amid rising tariffs imposed by the U.S., which may be negatively affecting employment levels as companies adjust their operations accordingly. Meanwhile, China's exports surged more than anticipated at an increase of 8% year-on-year for April despite existing tensions over trade policies.

Additionally, Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs while maintaining that current monetary policy is positioned well amidst uncertainty; they noted risks associated with both higher prices and lower growth domestically due to external factors like international trade dynamics impacting consumer sentiment and business confidence moving forward into upcoming months.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) [+6.1%]
Ethereum (ETH) has surged significantly, surpassing $2,300, marking an increase of over 20% within the last 24 hours. This rise follows a period of stagnant trading and aligns with a broader rally in the cryptocurrency market, where Bitcoin has also seen notable gains. Social media activity highlights that ETH recently broke through key resistance levels, reaching a two-month high. The Pectra upgrade is contributing to a deflationary trend, leading to speculation that ETH could approach $3,000 in Q2. Liquidations in short positions have been substantial, with ETH accounting for approximately $434 million of over $750 million in total liquidations across the crypto market. Earlier today, liquidation losses across the market reached $1.14 billion, with ETH being the most affected asset. Additionally, there were net outflows from ETH ETFs amounting to $16.1 million on May 8th.

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) [+1.3%, +495.3M]
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has experienced a price increase of 1.2% during the pre-market session on Friday. This movement coincides with a significant rise in crude oil prices, which surged above $60 per barrel. The uptick in oil prices is linked to the announcement of a new trade deal between the United States and Great Britain, which has alleviated some global supply chain tensions. Additionally, Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.40%, further supporting the energy sector's performance. Among the ETF's holdings, notable contributors include XOM, CVX, COP, OXY, and DVN, all of which posted positive returns. Ongoing geopolitical dynamics, particularly discussions surrounding U.S.-China tariffs ahead of high-level talks this weekend, are also influencing the energy markets.

PINS | +13.1% | +2.8B
Pinterest Inc | Interactive Media & Services
Pinterest Inc. reported its first-quarter financial results on May 8, 2025, revealing revenue of 855 million, exceeding estimates of 846.6 million and reflecting a year-over-year growth of 16%. Adjusted earnings per share were 0.23, slightly below the expected 0.26. Global monthly active users increased by 10% to 570 million. For the second quarter, the company anticipates revenue between 960 million and 980 million, with adjusted EBITDA projected between 217 million and 237 million. CEO Bill Ready noted that Generation Z is now the largest and fastest-growing user group, prompting top-tier performance marketers to allocate 5–10% of their ad spend to Pinterest due to its effective lower-funnel tools. Following these announcements, Pinterest shares rose significantly in after-hours trading, reflecting strong demand for its advertising capabilities and robust user engagement.

EXPE | -10.2% | -2.1B
Expedia Group Inc | Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Expedia Group Inc reported its first-quarter results, posting an adjusted EPS of $0.40, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.32. Revenue totaled $2.99 billion, falling short of the expected $3.01 billion. The company incurred a net loss of $200 million, compared to a loss of $135 million in the prior year. This performance was attributed to weaker travel demand in the U.S., where consumer spending on travel has declined amid economic uncertainty. Following the earnings announcement, shares fell approximately 5% in after-hours trading. Additionally, Expedia revised its full-year gross bookings growth outlook down to 2%-4% from a previous estimate of 4%-6%. Conversations on social media highlighted the revenue miss and the decline in demand, contributing to a further drop of nearly 10% in pre-market trading.

MCHP | +9.2% | +2.6B
Microchip Technology Inc | Semiconductors
Microchip Technology Inc. announced a positive outlook for its first-quarter results, forecasting adjusted earnings per share between 0.18 and 0.26, exceeding the $0.16 analyst estimate. The company projected first-quarter revenue in the range of $1.02 billion to $1.07 billion, surpassing the $987.62 million consensus estimate. This follows the release of its fourth-quarter financial results, which reported sales of $970.5 million, beating expectations of $962.76 million. Notably, the CEO indicated that the industry downturn has ended, citing stronger bookings in April compared to previous months. The adjusted earnings per share for Q4 was reported at 0.11, above the estimated 0.10, while net sales also exceeded estimates. Additionally, the quarterly dividend remains unchanged at 0.455 per share. Following these announcements, Microchip's stock experienced a significant increase in pre-market trading.

AFRM | -6.9% | -1.1B
Affirm Holdings Inc | Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Affirm Holdings Inc reported its third-quarter results for the period ending March 31, 2025, with adjusted earnings of $0.01 per share, surpassing analyst expectations of a loss of $0.03 per share. Revenue increased by nearly 36% to $783.14 million, slightly exceeding the consensus estimate of $783.03 million. The company also reported a quarterly net income of $2.8 million. However, guidance for fourth-quarter revenue is projected between $815 million and $845 million, falling short of the average analyst estimate of $841.6 million. Following the earnings report and guidance, Affirm's shares dropped significantly, with reports indicating a decline of approximately 8% in after-hours trading on May 8, 2025. Social media discussions highlighted concerns regarding quarter-over-quarter revenue decline and competition from other firms in the buy-now-pay-later sector, despite strong year-over-year growth in gross merchandise volume.

HUBS | -4.8% | -1.5B
HubSpot Inc | Application Software
HubSpot Inc reported its Q1 2025 results, revealing an adjusted EPS of 1.78, slightly above the consensus estimate of 1.76. Revenue reached 714.14 million, exceeding expectations of 700.36 million and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.67%. The company provided Q2 adjusted EPS guidance of 2.10-2.12, marginally below the consensus estimate of 2.13. HubSpot raised its FY2025 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of 9.29-9.37 from 9.11-9.19 and increased its sales outlook to 3.04 billion from a previous range of 2.98 billion-3.00 billion. Following these announcements, shares of HubSpot experienced a decline of 2.5%. Additionally, customer growth was strong, with total customers surpassing 258,000 globally, and the Board approved the company's first share repurchase program.

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