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Monday, July 15

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today include: Bitcoin +3.0%. Ethereum +3.1%. Copper -1.0%.

The market is reacting to a series of significant economic data releases and political events. In Canada, wholesale sales fell by 0.9% month-over-month in May, contrasting with the previous month's growth and missing expectations for an increase. Meanwhile, manufacturing sales rose slightly more than anticipated at 0.4%, driven primarily by gains in aerospace products.

In China, several key indicators were released showing mixed results: industrial production grew by 5.3% year-on-year in June but was below forecasts; fixed-asset investment increased as expected; however, new home prices saw their steepest decline since June 2015 amid ongoing property sector challenges.

Political developments are also influencing markets significantly today following an assassination attempt on former U.S President Donald Trump over the weekend which has heightened volatility across various asset classes including equities and bonds while boosting safe-haven assets like gold temporarily before stabilizing later during trading hours.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) [-1.4%]
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF experienced a notable decrease in price since Friday's close, coinciding with significant drops in US 30Y Treasury Bond prices. This movement is potentially linked to concerns over Trump's spending plans impacting the US deficit and recent market reactions to an assassination attempt on former President Trump. Additionally, GDP growth fell sharply in Q2, influencing future monetary policy decisions closely tied to this asset class. The strong historical correlation between iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF and the US 10Y Treasury Bond further emphasizes these interrelated movements during pre-market trading today.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [+2.9%]
Bitcoin's price has increased, coinciding with a resurgence in investor interest driven by the weekend attack on pro-crypto presidential candidate Trump and recent revelations of critical bugs hidden in Bitcoin's core software that could impact its future performance. The potential for further gains if Trump wins the U.S. Presidential elections is also contributing to bullish sentiment as altcoins like XRP react positively to recent news developments across crypto markets, resulting in an overall increase exceeding $200 billion within days amidst rising political uncertainties influencing future elections.

DJT |+48.1% | +3.9B
Digital World Acquisition Corp's stock price surged in pre-market trading today following an attempted assassination on former President Donald Trump, prompting related entities like Truth Social and the Trump Media & Technology Group to also experience notable increases. CEO Devin Nunes called for a federal investigation into the attack, emphasizing enhanced security measures amidst growing market optimism surrounding potential election win impacts on company valuations as analysts anticipate interesting developments over coming weeks due to increased discussion among traders anticipating major movements starting Monday.

TSLA |+3.9%|+32.0B
Tesla Inc (TSLA) stock rose in pre-market trading due to optimism surrounding a potential Trump presidency, an endorsement from Musk, and Global Equities Research raising the price target multiple times based on accelerating demand reaching $400 per share amidst news of promotional rates for the Model 3 in Norway positively impacting loan payments. Wells Fargo analysts remain bearish citing downside risks despite Tesla beating Q2 delivery estimates; concerns include delayed robotaxi reveal, tariff risks in Europe, and new US/EU tariffs potentially adding costs through FY24-FY25 while noting promising outlook for Tesla Energy with raised sales estimates by ~50%, reflecting leverage from higher deliveries offsetting added costs from tariffs until 2025.

COIN | +5.1% | +2.9B
Coinbase Global Inc noted delays for Core on Coredao Network affecting users, coinciding with news of a potential impact from Bitcoin's surge tied to the election outcome. Market performance indicates Coinbase is in the top 97th percentile of returns by this time today, aligning with Bitcoin's mild positive correlation and suggesting broader market movements may be at play influencing both assets simultaneously.

UNH |+2.0%|+9.6B
UnitedHealth Group Inc has seen a notable increase in its stock price. Recent legal actions, including securities class action lawsuits and antitrust investigations by multiple law firms, coincide with this movement. Additionally, President Biden's pledge to forgive medical debt if re-elected has generated optimism on social media for UNH stock due to potential policy changes affecting healthcare companies like UnitedHealth Group Inc. Furthermore, the company is set to announce Q2 FY2024 earnings today before market open with an EPS estimate of $6.66 (previous: $6.14) and revenue estimate of $98.8B (previous: $92.9B).

AAPL |+1.9%|+69.9B
Apple Inc's stock rose since Friday's close, coinciding with Morgan Stanley naming it a Top Pick ahead of the iPhone 16 launch and raising its price target to $273 from $216 based on anticipated growth driven by Apple Intelligence and multi-year device refresh cycles. Analysts foresee nearly 500 million iPhones shipped over two years, expecting positive mix shifts for both iPhones and iPads globally following the introduction of Apple Intelligence technology. Additionally, social media attention highlights forecasts of significant iPhone shipments in upcoming years alongside notable revenue growth trends in India while TSMC prepares advanced technology for new processors used on future iPhone models starting from M5 chips onwards.

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