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Monday, January 6

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today: US Dollar Index -1.0%. USD/CNH -0.5%. Copper +2.5%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Tesla Inc (TSLA) +2.8%. NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) +2.6%. Microsoft Corp (MSFT) +1.0%. 

Recent developments in the financial markets are significantly influenced by political and economic factors. Notably, reports indicate that President-elect Donald Trump's aides are considering a tariff plan focused on critical imports across all countries but limited to specific sectors deemed essential for national security. This news has led to a decline in the U.S. dollar while boosting equity indices such as S&P 500 futures, which rose approximately 0.7%. European stocks also experienced gains, with major indexes like Germany's DAX up over 1% following this announcement.

In terms of economic data releases, recent figures from Europe show mixed signals regarding growth prospects amid ongoing inflation concerns. The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI was revised slightly higher at 49.6 for December; however, it remains below the neutral mark indicating contraction overall due primarily to declines in manufacturing activity despite some improvements within service sectors across various nations including Spain and Ireland showing stronger performance than their larger counterparts—Germany and France.

Additionally, German annual inflation accelerated unexpectedly to 2.6%, surpassing market forecasts of around 2.4%. Rising prices were particularly noted in service costs alongside food items contributing further pressure on consumers amidst an environment where central banks may need to adjust policies accordingly based on these evolving dynamics affecting both domestic economies and broader global trade relationships moving into early January.

USD/CNH (USD/CNH) [-0.5%]
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1876 today, below market expectations of over 7.20, suggesting strong support for the yuan amid recent pressures. Concurrently, China's Caixin Services PMI rose to 52.2 in December from November's 51.5, reflecting an expansion in service sector activity. On social media, discussions noted that the US plans to impose additional sanctions on tankers carrying Russian oil, which may have implications for the USD. Additionally, UAE's non-oil business activity growth accelerated in December, with a PMI reading of 55.4. Insights from economists regarding Trump's policies suggest they are unlikely to be inflationary. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (USDX/USD) has declined significantly, indicating a broader market sentiment that may influence the movement of USD/CNH. The price of USD/CNH has moved down by 0.5% since Friday.

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) [-1.1%]
The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) has experienced a decline of approximately 1.1%. This movement coincides with a drop in the U.S. Dollar Index, which fell by 0.24% to 108.70, as traders reversed holiday gains ahead of key economic data and Federal Reserve updates. The backdrop includes mixed global market performance, with U.S. markets closing higher on Friday, while various international markets, particularly in Japan and India, faced declines. The Federal Reserve's recent announcement regarding its restrictive monetary policy stance has contributed to diminished expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025. Additionally, geopolitical events and speculation about potential tariff changes from the incoming administration have influenced market sentiment towards the dollar, further impacting UUP's performance.

NVDA | +2.5%| +91.8B
NVIDIA Corp | Semiconductors
NVIDIA Corp's stock has reached premarket highs, rising 2.7% to 148.40 after a previous gain. The company recently committed $1 billion across 50 startup funding rounds in 2024, a 15% increase from its 2023 expenditures. Meanwhile, Foxconn, a key supplier, reported record fourth-quarter revenue of 64.83 billion, a year-on-year increase driven by demand for AI servers and components. Foxconn is also establishing the world’s largest AI server manufacturing facility in Mexico, enhancing its collaboration with NVIDIA. Social media sentiment reflects a bullish outlook for NVIDIA in the AI semiconductor market, with discussions highlighting its strong position and potential entry into the AI PC market at the upcoming CES event, where CEO Jensen Huang is expected to present new strategies. Additionally, NVIDIA has reclaimed key technical levels, indicating continued upward momentum in its price action.

UBER | +4.5% | +6.4B
Uber Technologies Inc | Passenger Ground Transportation
Uber Technologies Inc is experiencing a notable price increase, moving higher alongside the broader market. The company has announced an accelerated share repurchase program totaling $1.5 billion, part of a larger $7 billion buyback authorization, which is set to deliver approximately 18.6 million shares. This initiative, facilitated through an agreement with Bank of America, is expected to conclude in the first quarter of 2025. Following this announcement, Uber's stock saw a pre-market rise of over 5%. Additionally, social media discussions highlighted Uber's plans to enter the driverless taxi market and shared positive expectations regarding its Q4 bookings. Meanwhile, Wolfe Research has raised its price target for Uber from $90 to $92, reflecting a favorable outlook amidst ongoing competitive dynamics in the ride-sharing sector.

AVGO | +1.2% | +1.3B
Broadcom Inc | Semiconductors
Broadcom Inc (AVGO) has seen its stock increase by 1.4% since the previous close, coinciding with a notable rise in the broader semiconductor sector, as evidenced by a significant increase in the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares (SOXL) and a rise in the Nasdaq 100 Index. Social media discussions this morning highlighted that AVGO was up by approximately 1.5% in early trading. Recent posts noted that Broadcom's stock more than doubled in 2024, driven by enthusiasm around custom silicon developments and a rating upgrade. Additionally, there are expectations for TSMC's co-packaged optics samples to be delivered to both Nvidia and Broadcom in 2025, further fueling market excitement. Broadcom is also mentioned among semiconductor companies valued over $1 trillion, reflecting its strong market position.

CRDP | +4.8%| +593.8M
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd | Semiconductors
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) is experiencing a price increase, aligning with broader market movements. Stifel analyst Tore Svanberg has raised the price target for CRDO to 80.00 from 75.00, maintaining a Buy rating, which reflects a positive outlook on the company's performance. The firm recently reported strong quarterly results and provided revenue guidance that exceeded expectations, positioning itself well to benefit from growth in artificial intelligence and data centers. Social media discussions are highlighting the company's prospects, contributing to an optimistic sentiment leading into 2025. Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 Index has also increased, suggesting a correlation with CRDO's recent price changes.

TSLA | +2.9% | +39.3B
Tesla Inc | Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla Inc is experiencing a notable increase in its stock price, moving higher alongside the broader market. Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro has raised Tesla's price target to 492 from 411, maintaining a Buy rating, which coincides with a premarket increase of approximately 2.4%. This uptick follows a recovery on Friday, where shares rose significantly despite mixed reactions to the company’s fourth-quarter delivery figures. Notably, Tesla's deliveries in China reached a record monthly total of nearly 94,000 units in December, accounting for almost half of its global deliveries for the quarter. The sentiment among investors regarding Tesla's performance in China remains positive. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 Index has also increased, reflecting the broader market sentiment that typically influences tech stocks like Tesla.

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