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Friday, May 23

Noteworthy macro moves today: Gold +1.9%. S&P 500 Index (US) -1.7%. Nasdaq 100 Index (US) -2.0%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Apple Inc (AAPL) -3.3%. Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) -3.2%. NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) -2.8%.

Recent market movements are significantly influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic data releases. President Trump's threats to impose a 50% tariff on EU imports starting June 1, along with a potential 25% tariff on iPhones not manufactured in the U.S., have heightened trade concerns among investors. This has led to declines across major European indices, including drops of approximately 3% for the Euro STOXX 50 index and around 2-3% for key national markets like Germany's DAX.

In terms of economic indicators, recent reports show mixed signals from various regions. The German economy expanded more than initially estimated at a quarterly growth rate of 0.4%, while UK retail sales surged unexpectedly by over double forecasts at +1.2%. However, consumer confidence in France fell sharply below expectations as inflationary pressures continue to weigh heavily on sentiment there.

Additionally, rising long-term yields in Japan following changes in monetary policy signal broader implications for global financial markets; these developments could lead foreign capital flows back home away from U.S assets if Japanese bonds become increasingly attractive due to higher returns compared with Treasuries facing fiscal health worries amid proposed tax cuts that may inflate deficits further down the line.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [+1.8%]
Gold futures have increased significantly, reaching a two-week high amid rising concerns over U.S. fiscal health and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The recent announcement of a proposed 50% tariff on the European Union by President Trump has contributed to heightened safe-haven buying. Concurrently, gold prices were reported higher earlier today, driven by demand linked to U.S. debt concerns and tensions in the Middle East. The passage of a substantial tax package in Congress has intensified fears regarding long-term debt sustainability, leading to a weaker dollar against major currencies. Additionally, the US 2Y Treasury Bond has seen a modest increase, which may reflect broader market sentiment and suggests that shifts in Treasury yields could be influencing gold's price movement. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index's release has also prompted notable market responses, highlighting the asset's sensitivity to economic activity data.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [-2.7%]
Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately 111,032, reflecting a daily decline of about 2.7%. This drop comes despite recent highs and increased transaction volumes across major cryptocurrencies. Notably, BlackRock's spot BTC ETF has entered the top five ETFs for year-to-date flows, suggesting heightened institutional engagement. Social media discussions highlight that BlackRock's IBIT purchased 8,000 BTC worth around 877.2 million, marking its largest monthly inflow. Additionally, Bitcoin buyer dominance at 111,000 points to strong market demand. The sentiment index for Bitcoin remains just below extreme greed, indicating potential for further movement. In parallel, Ethereum has seen a significant decline of approximately 3.7%, mirroring Bitcoin's downward trend and reflecting broader market sentiment within the cryptocurrency sector.

AAPL | -3.2% | -95.3B
Apple Inc | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Apple Inc shares have experienced a notable decline, moving lower alongside the broader market. This drop follows President Donald Trump's comments regarding manufacturing expectations for iPhones sold in the U.S., warning of a potential tariff if these devices are not produced domestically. In premarket trading, Apple shares fell significantly, reflecting immediate reactions on social media to Trump's announcement. Concurrently, the Nasdaq 100 Index has also declined, which may correlate with Apple's performance. Despite these pressures, Apple is reportedly expanding its supply chain in India with a substantial investment in a Foxconn plant, while also planning to introduce smart glasses by 2026 and offering trade-in discounts for new iPhones in China.

ROST | -13.0% | -5.8B
Ross Stores Inc | Apparel Retail
Ross Stores Inc reported Q1 earnings with a net income of $479.25 million, down from $487.99 million year-over-year, while sales reached $4.98 billion, surpassing estimates of $4.97 billion. The company withdrew its annual sales and earnings guidance, citing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs affecting over half of its goods sourced from China. For Q2, Ross anticipates earnings per share between $1.40 and $1.55, below the consensus estimate of $1.64. Comparable store sales for the 13 weeks ending August 2, 2025, are projected to be flat to up 3%, following a 4% gain in the prior year’s second quarter. Following these announcements, Ross shares fell significantly in after-hours trading, reflecting market reactions to the withdrawn guidance and lowered expectations.

INTU | +7.3% | +14.5B
Intuit Inc | Application Software
Intuit Inc. reported robust third-quarter results, with an earnings per share (EPS) of 11.65, surpassing the consensus estimate of 10.91, and revenue of 7.75 billion, exceeding expectations of 7.56 billion. This performance reflects a year-over-year revenue increase of 15%. The company raised its fiscal year 2025 guidance, projecting EPS between 20.07 and 20.12 and revenue expectations of 18.72 billion to 18.76 billion, up from prior estimates. TurboTax Live revenue grew by 47% year-over-year, contributing to overall positive momentum across Intuit's platforms. Following these announcements, the stock experienced a notable price increase in after-hours trading, with social media discussions highlighting the strong performance and optimistic outlook for Q4, including an EPS guide of 2.63 compared to an estimate of 2.58 and a sales guide of 3.74 billion versus an estimate of 3.51 billion.

WDAY | -7.7% | -5.1B
Workday Inc | Application Software
Workday, Inc. reported its first-quarter results on May 22, 2025, revealing an adjusted EPS of 2.23, exceeding the analyst estimate of 2.01, and quarterly revenues of 2.24 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate of 2.22 billion. Despite these positive figures, the company anticipates second-quarter sales of 2.16 billion, below the analyst expectation of 2.34 billion. This guidance has contributed to a negative market reaction, with analysts from Loop Capital and Oppenheimer lowering their price targets for Workday to 250 and 300, respectively. Social media discussions highlighted the earnings beat but noted a decline in WDAY's stock, which dropped significantly in after-hours trading following the announcement. The adjusted operating income was reported at 677 million, with an FY adjusted EBIT margin projected at 28.5%.

CPRT | -4.4% | -2.5B
Copart Inc | Diversified Support Services
Copart Inc. reported its Q3 FY25 results, with revenue reaching $1.21 billion, falling short of the consensus estimate of $1.23 billion. Operating income was $451.5 million, and net income increased to $405.3 million from $382.3 million in the prior year. The company posted earnings per share of $0.42, matching analyst expectations and reflecting growth from $0.39 year-over-year. Operating expenses totaled $760.2 million. Despite a year-over-year revenue growth of 7.5%, the revenue miss contributed to a decline in the stock price, which dropped approximately 3% in after-hours trading following the announcement. Social media discussions highlighted concerns regarding a lower return on invested capital from recent capital expenditures, which totaled $2 billion over four years, yielding an incremental earnings increase of $200 million.

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