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Friday, November 22

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today include: Gold +0.8%. US Dollar Index +0.4%.

Recent economic data releases have highlighted significant contractions in the Eurozone, particularly within Germany and France. The HCOB Flash Composite PMI for Germany fell to 47.3, indicating a sharp decline in business activity—the lowest level seen since February—while French private sector activity also contracted significantly, with its composite index dropping to 44.8 from October's reading of 48.1.

In response to these disappointing figures, market sentiment has shifted towards expectations of further monetary easing by central banks such as the European Central Bank (ECB). This speculation is reflected in movements across financial markets; notably, the euro has weakened against major currencies like the US dollar due to fears that poor economic performance may prompt aggressive rate cuts at upcoming ECB meetings.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions continue influencing investor behavior amid escalating conflicts involving Russia and Ukraine which are contributing to safe-haven demand for assets like gold while pressuring equity indices globally. As investors digest this mix of weak macroeconomic indicators alongside ongoing political uncertainties, volatility remains prevalent across various asset classes including equities and commodities.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [+0.8%]
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has seen significant price movements recently, with a noted increase of 0.8% since Thursday. Gold prices have risen for five consecutive days, reaching a nearly two-week high, driven by a flight to safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical tensions related to Russia's military actions in Ukraine. This rise occurs despite the strong performance of the US dollar and elevated bond yields. Additionally, recent social media discussions highlight that GLD is on track for its best weekly performance in over a year. There are also concerns regarding the sustainability of the US dollar's strength, alongside a rally in gold and silver prices back to recent highs. Demand for gold has surged due to fears about global economic stability, particularly following disappointing PMI data from Europe.

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) [+0.4%]
The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) has seen a price increase of 0.4% since Thursday. The US Dollar Index (USDX) has strengthened, reaching its highest level since October 2023, driven by lower-than-expected initial jobless claims data and positive labor market indicators. This uptick in the USDX coincides with heightened geopolitical tensions due to Russia's military actions, which have increased demand for safe-haven assets like the US dollar. Social media discussions indicate that the USDX is attempting to break through a resistance zone between 106 and 107, with a strong close above this level required for confirmation.

ESTC | +24.0% | +2.9B
Elastic NV | Application Software
Elastic NV (ESTC) reported strong Q2 financial results, with revenue of $365 million, reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase, and Elastic Cloud revenue reaching $169 million, up 25% YoY. The adjusted EPS was reported at $0.59, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.38. Following the earnings announcement, ESTC shares rose significantly, increasing by approximately 24%. The company also provided guidance for Q3 2025, projecting EPS between $0.46 and $0.48 and revenue between $367 million and $369 million. Analysts responded positively, with Canaccord raising its price target to $130 from $110 and Piper Sandler adjusting its target to $130 from $100, citing robust demand for Elastic's products. Discussions on social media noted these financial results alongside the departure of CFO and COO Janesh Moorjani, although sentiment remained optimistic overall.

INTU | -2.6% | -4.8B
Intuit Inc | Application Software
Intuit Inc. (INTU) reported strong first-quarter results for fiscal 2025, with revenue reaching $3.3 billion, reflecting a 10% year-over-year increase. The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.50 surpassed forecasts. Notable performance was seen in the Online Ecosystem, which generated $1.9 billion in revenue, up 20%, and the Global Business Solutions Group, which brought in $2.5 billion, marking a 9% rise. Credit Karma also contributed significantly, with a revenue increase of 29%. Despite these positive earnings, Intuit's stock fell in after-hours trading due to second-quarter guidance that missed estimates. The company reaffirmed its full-year revenue guidance between $18.2 billion and $18.3 billion and EPS guidance of $19.16 to $19.36. Throughout the day, INTU's stock price fluctuated between a high of $681.59 and a low of $604.15.

NTAP | +7.1%| +2.0B
NetApp Inc | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
NetApp Inc (NTAP) reported its Q2 earnings, revealing net revenues of $1.66 billion, reflecting a 6% increase year-over-year. The company achieved a GAAP net income per share of $1.42 and a record non-GAAP EPS of $1.87, surpassing estimates of $1.78 and marking an 18% year-over-year growth. The All-Flash Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $3.8 billion, up 19% year-over-year, while public cloud revenue was reported at $168 million. NTAP provided guidance for Q3, projecting revenue between $1.61 billion and $1.76 billion and adjusted EPS ranging from $1.85 to $1.95. For fiscal year 2025, revenue guidance is set between $6.54 billion and $6.74 billion. Following the earnings release, NTAP's stock price rose to 126.88, an increase of 6.30.

RDDT | -7.4%| -1.8B
Reddit Inc | Interactive Media & Services
Reddit Inc (RDDT) has seen a significant decline in its stock price, dropping approximately 7.4% in the pre-market session. Recent social media discussions reveal that Advance Magazine Publishers is attempting to establish a credit facility by offering 7.8 million shares, potentially raising up to $1.2 billion. This news coincided with Tencent Holdings selling a substantial number of RDDT shares, specifically 654,979 shares at an average price of $133.76. These developments have led to a notable drop in RDDT's share price, which fell sharply after reports of insider selling and competition concerns related to OpenAI. Additionally, the stock's recent trading activity has reflected ongoing volatility amidst these shareholder actions.

BIDU | -3.0% | -6.6B
Baidu Inc | Interactive Media & Services
Baidu Inc. has experienced a notable decline in pre-market trading, dropping by 3.0%. This movement follows a downgrade by Barclays, which cited advertising pressures linked to generative AI as a key concern. Social media discussions have further highlighted these pressures, suggesting potential challenges for Baidu's revenue generation in the shifting tech landscape. Additionally, the Hang Seng Tech Index has faced a technical breakdown, with Baidu and PDD identified as contributing factors to negative market sentiment. This downturn coincides with a significant shift in the USD-CNY exchange rate nearing 7.25, which has reversed previous gains and may adversely affect Baidu's performance in the near term.

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