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Thursday, December 12

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today include: Ethereum +2.9%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to address ongoing economic challenges, marking the third consecutive reduction. This decision comes amid concerns about weak growth and moderating inflation in the Eurozone, with analysts questioning whether this move will be sufficient to stimulate recovery.

In the United States, recent data shows a rise in producer prices for November at 0.4% month-over-month—double market expectations—and initial jobless claims have surged unexpectedly to their highest level since October at 242,000. These developments are influencing speculation around potential Federal Reserve rate cuts next week as markets adjust their outlook based on these indicators of labor market health and inflationary pressures.

Additionally, China's leadership is signaling a shift towards more accommodative monetary policy amidst persistent domestic demand issues and external trade tensions. The Politburo's discussions include plans for stimulus measures aimed at boosting consumption while addressing deflationary risks within the economy; however, details remain sparse following high-level meetings that concluded recently.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) [+2.9%]
Ethereum (ETH/USD) has seen a price increase of 2.9% since Wednesday. Major institutional investors, BlackRock and Fidelity, have acquired $500 million in Ethereum over the past 48 hours, coinciding with a period of panic selling among retail investors. Additionally, Trump's World Liberty DeFi project purchased a total of $15 million worth of ETH, with $10 million acquired recently. On December 11th, significant ETF flows were noted, with approximately 28,110 ETH bought and ETH ETFs experiencing $102 million in net inflows. Macro events include a surprising 0.4% month-over-month increase in the U.S. Producer Price Index for November, raising inflation concerns, while initial jobless claims rose to a two-month high of 242,000, suggesting potential labor market weakness.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) [-0.8%]
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has declined by 0.8% in pre-market trading, coinciding with a broader downturn in the Nasdaq 100 Index, which fell by 0.36%. This decline follows recent macroeconomic events, including a 0.4% month-over-month increase in the US Producer Price Index, which exceeded expectations and influenced market volatility. Initial jobless claims rose significantly to 242,000, surpassing forecasts and raising concerns about labor market strength. Notably, the Swiss National Bank's unexpected 50 basis point cut in its key policy rate may also have implications for technology stocks. Social media discussions highlight the 200-day moving average as a crucial support level for semiconductor stocks, with historical rebounds noted when approaching this threshold. Among the ETF's holdings, key contributors to performance included declines in NVDA, AVGO, LRCX, AMAT, and MU.

ADBE | -11.2%| -24.5B
Adobe Inc | Application Software
Adobe Inc's shares have dropped significantly following its fourth-quarter earnings release, which, while exceeding revenue and EPS estimates, provided disappointing guidance. The company reported Q4 revenue of 5.61 billion, surpassing the consensus of 5.54 billion, with adjusted EPS at 4.81 compared to estimates of 4.66. For Q1, Adobe forecasted revenue between 5.63 billion and 5.68 billion, below the expected 5.73 billion. Additionally, the full-year FY25 revenue guidance of 23.30 billion to 23.55 billion fell short of the anticipated 23.79 billion. Despite achieving record fiscal year 2024 revenue of 21.51 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year growth, the stock experienced a notable decline in after-hours trading following the earnings announcement, attributed to concerns over future performance and revenue growth prospects.

UBER | +3.2% | +4.2B
Uber Technologies Inc | Passenger Ground Transportation
Uber Technologies Inc. saw a premarket increase of 3% following positive remarks from a TD Cowen analyst after a meeting with CFO Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah. The analyst reiterated a "Buy" rating and maintained a price target of 90. At the Barclays Conference, the CFO expressed confidence that the mobility segment will grow at a rate in the high teens to low 20s for at least the first quarters of 2025. Discussions on social media noted that Moove would utilize Uber's ERP system for Waymo fleet management in Miami, emphasizing Uber's stake in Moove. Users highlighted a 3.8% rise in after-hours trading, attributed to favorable comments from the conference. Overall, sentiments varied, with optimism about growth prospects tempered by caution regarding competition and market positioning, particularly against major players like Tesla.

NDSN | -6.4% | -858.1M
Nordson Corp | Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Nordson Corp reported its Q4 2024 earnings on December 11, 2024, revealing an adjusted EPS of 2.78, exceeding the consensus estimate of 2.59. Sales for the quarter reached 744.48 million, surpassing expectations of 736.35 million and reflecting a year-over-year increase. However, the company provided guidance for Q1 FY25, projecting sales between 615 million and 655 million, notably lower than the consensus estimate of 681.69 million. Additionally, Nordson's FY25 adjusted EPS forecast is set at 9.70 to 10.50, below the consensus of 10.38. The anticipated revenue for FY25 is between 2.75 billion and 2.87 billion, also falling short of expectations. The industrial precision solutions segment experienced a decline in sales, with a year-over-year drop to 392.2 million. Following the earnings announcement, Nordson's stock moved down significantly shortly thereafter.

GD | -2.6%| -1.9B
General Dynamics Corp | Aerospace & Defense
General Dynamics Corp has recently experienced significant downgrades from analysts. GSCO downgraded the stock to "sell," with a price target set at 245. Concurrently, JEFF downgraded it to "hold," establishing a price target of 300. Both downgrades were published approximately 52 minutes ago, reflecting a shift in sentiment regarding the company's outlook. Additionally, discussions on social media suggest that the stock has been struggling since Donald Trump's presidency, linking this to perceptions of military and defense spending under his administration. This commentary surfaced during trading hours, three hours prior to its publication.

CHWY | -2.9% | -402.0M
Chewy Inc | Other Specialty Retail
Chewy Inc. announced a public offering of $500 million in Class A common stock by Buddy Chester Sub LLC, an entity affiliated with its largest shareholder, BC Partners Advisors. This offering will not involve Chewy selling any shares or receiving proceeds. Concurrently, the company plans to repurchase $50 million of its common stock from the selling stockholder. This announcement, made on December 11, 2024, coincided with a notable decline in Chewy's stock price, which dropped significantly in after-hours trading following the news. The public offering and concurrent share repurchase have been widely discussed on social media platforms, highlighting the market's reaction to these developments.

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