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Thursday, May 1

Noteworthy macro moves today: Gold -2.3%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Microsoft Corp (MSFT) +9.8%. Meta Platforms Inc (META) +7.2%. NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) +4.7%. 

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at around 0.5% during its May meeting, aligning with market expectations while also lowering the GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2026 to 0.5%. This dovish stance from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted heightened uncertainty regarding inflation and global trade dynamics, particularly in light of ongoing US tariffs.

In the United States, initial jobless claims rose by 18,000 to a nine-week high of 241,000 as economic data continues to reflect challenges amid rising layoffs across various sectors. The recent contraction in Q1 GDP has led investors to anticipate potential Federal Reserve rate cuts; however, strong consumer spending figures have provided some counterbalance against recession fears.

Market sentiment is buoyed by positive earnings reports from major tech companies like Meta and Microsoft following a mixed performance on Wall Street due to earlier concerns over tariff impacts on corporate America. Additionally, optimism surrounding possible progress in US-China trade negotiations further supports risk appetite among investors despite underlying macroeconomic uncertainties.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [-2.3%]
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) experienced a notable decline of 2.3% during the pre-market session, aligning with a broader drop in gold prices, which fell significantly due to a stronger US Dollar and reduced safe-haven demand. June gold contracts dropped by 2.8%, reflecting a substantial decrease from recent highs. Concurrently, economic data revealed an unexpected contraction in U.S. GDP, raising speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. Social media discussions indicated that GLD's performance mirrored the S&P 500's drawdown from all-time highs, with GLD up year-to-date while Bitcoin was noted to be outperforming gold for the first time since late March. Additionally, sentiment surrounding GLD included observations of an "inside week" pattern, suggesting potential for further price adjustments.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [+2.4%]
Bitcoin's price has rebounded today, recovering from earlier losses linked to a 0.3% contraction in U.S. GDP for Q1 2025, which has raised recession concerns. Concurrently, President Trump's announcement regarding potential trade deal progress with China has positively influenced market sentiment, contributing to Bitcoin's gains as it moved alongside gold amid stock market declines driven by tariff measures. Currently, Bitcoin is up approximately 2.4%. Social media highlights include significant purchases by BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF, which acquired 2,830 BTC valued at $267 million on April 30th.

MSFT | +9.8% | +313.1B
Microsoft Corp | Systems Software
Microsoft Corp shares have surged following the release of its Q3 earnings, which surpassed both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue estimates. The company reported an EPS of 3.46, exceeding expectations of 3.22, and revenue of 70.1 billion, beating estimates of 68.4 billion. Analysts responded positively, with Scotia bank and Stifel raising their price targets to 500. Goldman Sachs also adjusted its target to 480. The strong performance in cloud services, particularly Azure, which grew by 33% year-over-year, has been a key driver of this optimism. Following the earnings announcement, Microsoft shares increased significantly, with premarket gains noted at around 9.2%. Additionally, revenue guidance for Q4 FY2025 was set between 73.2 billion and 74.2 billion.

META | +7.2% | +106.5B
Meta Platforms Inc | Interactive Media & Services
Meta Platforms Inc experienced a notable increase in pre-market trading following the release of its Q1 2025 earnings report. The company reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $6.43, significantly exceeding the estimated $5.28, and revenue of $42.31 billion, surpassing expectations of $41.4 billion. Analysts have responded positively, with Rosenblatt raising its price target to $918 from $846 while maintaining a Buy rating. Other firms, including Citi and UBS, also adjusted their targets upward to $690 and $683, respectively. Meta's advertising revenue reached $41.39 billion, fueled by robust demand, and the company provided optimistic revenue guidance for Q2 2025, projecting between $42.5 billion and $45.5 billion. Mark Zuckerberg highlighted that over 3.4 billion people use at least one Meta app daily, indicating strong user engagement.

CVS | +8.7% | +7.9B
CVS Health Corp | Health Care Services
CVS Health Corp reported strong first-quarter results, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 2.25, significantly surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of 1.70. Total revenues reached 94.59 billion, exceeding expectations and reflecting a year-over-year increase. The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of 6.00 to 6.20, up from the previous estimate of 5.75 to 6.00. CVS's medical loss ratio improved to 87.3%, below the anticipated 88.9%. Following the earnings announcement, CVS's stock price increased by approximately 10% in pre-market trading. Additionally, discussions on social media highlighted a partnership with Novo to enhance Wegovy and noted an increase in cash flow from operations guidance to around 7 billion, further contributing to the positive sentiment surrounding the company.

QCOM | -5.6% | -8.7B
Qualcomm Inc | Semiconductors
Qualcomm Inc. reported its Q2 financial results, revealing $6.9 billion in handset chip sales and total revenue of $10.8 billion, exceeding earnings estimates. Despite this, multiple analysts revised their price targets downward, with Baird lowering its target to 216 from 250, Susquehanna adjusting to 190 from 210, and Benchmark setting a new target at 200, down from 240. Mizuho and Loop Capital also reduced their targets to 190 and 155, respectively. The company anticipates Q3 revenue between 9.9 billion and 10.7 billion, below the analyst estimate of 10.33 billion. Social media discussions highlighted mixed reactions to the earnings report, noting that Qualcomm's stock declined following the cautious guidance, contrasting sharply with the positive market response to other tech stocks like Microsoft. The CFO indicated no significant pull-ins from customers due to tariffs, despite concerns raised on social platforms regarding demand impacts.

LLY | -4.7% | -38.5B
Eli Lilly and Co | Pharmaceuticals
Eli Lilly and Co reported its first-quarter results, revealing a net income of $2.759 billion, up from $2.243 billion year-over-year. Operating income increased to $3.695 billion from $2.509 billion, while revenue surged to $12.729 billion, compared to $8.768 billion last year. The company, however, lowered its fiscal year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $20.78 to $22.28, down from previous estimates of $22.50 to $24.00, which fell below analysts' consensus of $22.40. Sales of its weight-loss drug Zepbound also slightly missed expectations, generating $2.311 billion against a forecast of $2.33 billion. Following these announcements, Eli Lilly's stock saw a significant decline in pre-market trading.

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