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Wednesday, July 30

Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Visa Inc (V) -2.7%. Mastercard Inc (MA) -0.7%. 

The U.S. economy showed a significant rebound in the second quarter of 2025, with GDP growth reported at an annualized rate of 3%, surpassing expectations for a rise of only 2.4%. This recovery follows a contraction in Q1 and was driven by decreased imports as businesses adjusted to previous tariff impacts, alongside increased consumer spending.

In Europe, economic data has been mixed but generally positive; France's GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter while Germany experienced its first quarterly contraction since mid-2024 with a decline of -0.1%. The Eurozone overall expanded slightly despite trade uncertainties affecting major economies like Italy and Germany.

Market sentiment is currently cautious ahead of key monetary policy decisions from both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada later today, where rates are expected to remain unchanged amid ongoing concerns about inflationary pressures linked to tariffs imposed on various goods. Investors will be closely monitoring these announcements along with employment figures that could influence future market movements.

Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) [-0.5%]
The Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) is currently experiencing a decline, with the EUR/USD currency pair down approximately 0.5%. This movement aligns with a stronger-than-expected rebound in the U.S. economy, where real GDP increased by 3% in Q2 2025, following a contraction in the previous quarter. The market has reacted to this data with notable volatility. Additionally, ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China are contributing to uncertainty, particularly as President Trump has imposed an August deadline for new tariffs if no agreements are reached. The GBP/USD has also decreased, which suggests that broader market sentiment may be influencing the recent decline in the EUR/USD.

iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) [+1.4%]
The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) has experienced a pre-market increase of 1.4%, attributed to several concurrent developments. U.S.-China trade tensions remain unresolved, with a looming August 1 deadline for new tariffs, potentially affecting global markets, including biotechnology. In a positive turn, GE HealthCare raised its full-year guidance, anticipating organic revenue growth due to robust capital investment trends despite ongoing tariff impacts. Additionally, the departure of Vinay Prasad from the FDA has been well-received within the sector, following controversies over Duchenne muscular dystrophy treatments. Among the ETF's holdings, Sarepta Therapeutics saw significant stock appreciation after receiving FDA authorization to resume shipments for its gene therapy, while Ionis Pharmaceuticals raised its FY25 revenue guidance, reflecting strong performance and successful product sales.

V | -2.7% | -18.8B
Visa Inc | Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Visa Inc. reported its Q3 FY25 earnings, showcasing a revenue increase of 14% year-over-year to $10.2 billion, surpassing estimates of $9.84 billion. Adjusted earnings per share reached $2.98, exceeding expectations of $2.85. Payment volume rose by 8%, while cross-border volume increased by 12%. Processed transactions totalled 65.4 billion, reflecting a 10% year-over-year growth, albeit slightly below estimates. Despite these robust results, Visa's full-year revenue growth forecast remained unchanged, which may have contributed to a decline in share price. Following the earnings announcement, shares dropped approximately 2.4%, reflecting broader market sentiments despite the company's strong financial performance and the CEO's remarks on resilient consumer spending trends across various categories in the U.S.

HUM | +8.6% | +2.6B
Humana Inc | Managed Health Care
Humana Inc. reported its Q2 2025 financial results, revealing total revenues of $32.388 billion, an increase from $29.540 billion last year. The adjusted EPS came in at $6.27, surpassing the consensus estimate of $5.87, although it was slightly below a separate estimate of $6.32. The company raised its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $17.00 from $16.25 and expects consolidated revenues to be at least $128 billion, up from the previous guidance of $126 billion to $128 billion. Despite a decrease in net income to $545 million from $679 million last year, the results exceeded analysts' expectations. Following the announcement, Humana's stock rose significantly, reflecting the positive reception of its revised profit forecast and effective cost management amidst industry trends in medical utilization.

STX | -6.4% | -1.9B
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC reported its fiscal fourth quarter and full-year financial results on July 29, 2025. The company achieved an adjusted EPS of 2.59, surpassing the consensus estimate of 2.43, marking a significant year-over-year increase. Revenue for the quarter reached 2.444 billion, exceeding expectations and reflecting substantial growth compared to the previous year. However, the company projected first-quarter adjusted EPS between 2.10 and 2.50, falling short of the consensus estimate. Revenue guidance for the first quarter is set between 2.35 billion and 2.65 billion, also below expectations. Following these announcements, Seagate shares experienced notable selling pressure, with a decline of approximately 8.2% shortly after the earnings call.

SBUX | +6.0% | +6.7B
Starbucks Corp | Restaurants
Starbucks Corp reported its Q3 fiscal year 2025 results on July 29, revealing adjusted earnings of $0.50 per share, which fell short of the consensus estimate of $0.65. Revenue reached $9.46 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $9.29 billion, marking a 3% year-over-year increase. Global comparable store sales declined by 2%, with a notable 2% drop in North America, although comparable sales in China increased by 2%. CEO Brian Niccol stated that the company is ahead of schedule on its "Back to Starbucks" turnaround strategy and announced plans for new food and beverage offerings. The board declared a cash dividend of 61 cents per share, payable on August 29 to shareholders of record as of August 15. Additionally, social media discussions highlighted interest from over 20 firms in Starbucks' China business, while concerns about declining sales and traffic persisted amidst reports of cold foam sales increasing by 23%.

EDU | -10.2% | -7.1B
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc | Education Services
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc reported its Q4 earnings, revealing an EPS of 0.61, surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.34. Revenue for the quarter reached 1.243 billion, exceeding expectations of 1.178 billion and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.32%. For Q1, the company anticipates sales between 1.464 billion and 1.507 billion, below the analyst estimate of 1.562 billion. Additionally, New Oriental's FY2026 revenue outlook is set between 5.145 billion and 5.39 billion, also below the consensus estimate of 5.5 billion. Following the earnings announcement at 5:00 AM NY, the stock moved down significantly, dropping over 11% shortly thereafter. The board also approved a three-year shareholder return plan, committing at least 50% of net income to shareholder value through dividends or share repurchases starting in FY2026.

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