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Friday, February 14

Noteworthy macro moves today: US 10Y Treasury Bond +0.4%. US 2Y Treasury Bond +0.1%. USD/CNH -0.3%.

Recent economic data releases have highlighted significant challenges in the U.S. economy, particularly with retail sales falling by 0.9% month-over-month in January, which was much worse than expected and followed a revised gain of 0.7% in December. This decline has raised concerns about consumer spending amid ongoing inflation pressures.

In addition to domestic issues, geopolitical factors are influencing market sentiment as President Trump announced plans for reciprocal tariffs aimed at countries imposing duties on American goods; however, these measures will not take immediate effect but could be implemented starting April 1st after further negotiations occur. The announcement led to fluctuations across various markets while investors remain cautious regarding potential trade impacts.

European equities showed mixed results following recent gains driven by optimism surrounding peace talks related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and positive earnings reports from major companies within the region despite some declines today due to profit-taking activities among traders reacting cautiously ahead of upcoming U.S.-based economic indicators such as import/export prices and industrial production figures set for release later today.

USD/CNH (USD/CNH) [-0.3%]
The US Dollar (USD) has dropped significantly today, reaching its lowest level since mid-December against major currencies, influenced by ongoing tariff concerns and potential impacts on domestic prices. This decline follows President Trump's announcement of delays in implementing reciprocal tariffs until April, which alleviated fears of an imminent global trade war. Additionally, retail sales data indicated a larger-than-expected contraction for January. Concurrently, the People's Bank of China raised the CNY central parity rate by 13 pips to 7.1706 per USD, significantly exceeding market expectations. Social media discussions have also highlighted Taiwan's Security Council meeting regarding U.S. tariffs, and Thailand's efforts to avert U.S. tariffs amid a substantial trade surplus. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY has declined, reflecting broader market sentiment that may be influencing USD/CNH dynamics.

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) [+2.8%]
iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has experienced a price increase of 2.8% in pre-market trading, coinciding with a notable rise in silver prices, which are currently trading at 33.20 per troy ounce, up from 32.37 per ounce yesterday. Recent social media discussions have highlighted positive momentum in the silver market, with comments indicating expectations for continued upward movement. Additionally, the announcement by President Donald Trump to delay reciprocal tariffs has alleviated concerns over a potential global trade war, further driving demand for safe-haven assets like silver.

ABNB | +13.4% | +13.6B
Airbnb Inc | Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Airbnb, Inc. reported its fourth-quarter financial results, revealing a revenue of $2.50 billion, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $2.42 billion, and marking a 12% year-over-year increase. Adjusted EBITDA reached $765 million, up from $738 million in the previous year, while earnings per share were $0.73 compared to a loss of $0.55 in the same quarter last year. The gross booking value stood at $17.6 billion, with 111 million nights and experiences booked. For the first quarter of 2025, Airbnb guided revenue expectations between $2.23 billion and $2.27 billion, slightly below the estimated $2.29 billion. Following the earnings announcement, shares surged significantly in after-hours trading, reflecting positive market sentiment toward the results. Social media discussions highlighted these earnings, with analysts adjusting price targets for the stock amid optimism surrounding potential growth and AI developments.

GDDY | -7.5% | -2.1B
GoDaddy Inc | Internet Services & Infrastructure
GoDaddy Inc shares are trading lower following the company's Q4 earnings report, which revealed an EPS of 1.36, missing the consensus estimate of 1.43 by 4.9%. While sales of 1.192 billion exceeded expectations of 1.179 billion, the overall performance did not meet investor forecasts. The company provided guidance for Q1 revenue between 1.175 billion and 1.195 billion, slightly below the estimate of 1.186 billion. Additionally, GoDaddy projected full-year revenue of 4.860 billion to 4.940 billion, compared to the estimate of 4.897 billion. Notably, total revenue for the quarter reflected an 8% year-over-year increase, with total bookings also showing a 9% year-over-year growth. NEBITDA amounted to 384.7 million, representing a 19% increase year-over-year. Following the earnings announcement, GoDaddy's stock moved down significantly shortly thereafter.

BABA | +5.8% | +141.8B
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd | Broadline Retail
Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd surged following reports that co-founder Jack Ma may soon meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, generating optimism regarding potential growth initiatives. J.P. Morgan's recent analysis also reinforced a positive outlook, reaffirming a Buy rating on the stock, particularly in the e-commerce and cloud computing sectors. Social media highlighted Apple's plans to collaborate with Alibaba and Baidu to enhance AI features for iPhones in China by mid-2025, emphasizing the competitive landscape in China's AI sector. Additionally, it was noted that mainland investors' holdings in Alibaba via the Stock Connect crossed 5% for the first time. The Hang Seng China Index rose significantly, with Alibaba being a key contributor to this increase. The company is expected to announce its Q3 FY2025 earnings on February 20, 2025, with revised EPS and revenue estimates indicating growth.

MRNA | -4.4% | -519.4M
Moderna Inc | Biotechnology
Moderna Inc. reported a fourth-quarter loss per share of -2.91, missing the consensus estimate of -2.68 and declining from an EPS of 0.55 in the prior year. Revenue for the quarter was 966 million, exceeding expectations of 942.8 million but reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 66%. The company's net product sales were 938 million, down 66% primarily due to the earlier launch of its updated COVID-19 vaccine. Additionally, Moderna reiterated its revenue outlook for 2025 at 1.5 billion to 2.5 billion, with approximately 200 million expected in the first half. Following these results, the stock faced pressure, trading down nearly 5% in premarket activity. Social media discussions noted a 4.1% drop in shares following the earnings report and highlighted a challenging start to 2025, with shares down significantly since the beginning of the year.

ROKU | +13.5% | +1.9B
Roku Inc | Movies & Entertainment
Roku Inc. reported its fourth-quarter financial results on February 13, 2025, with net revenue of $1.20 billion, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $1.15 billion and marking a 22% year-over-year increase. The company's earnings per share were $(0.24), beating the consensus estimate of $(0.43). Platform revenue reached $1.04 billion, reflecting a 25% year-over-year growth. Roku forecasted adjusted EBITDA for 2025 at $350 million, exceeding the estimate of $290.4 million. Following the earnings announcement, shares rallied significantly in after-hours trading. On social media, discussions highlighted that Roku achieved over 89.8 million streaming households, surpassing FactSet's estimate of 89 million, and noted an 82% increase in streaming hours on The Roku Channel year-over-year. Analyst upgrades also contributed to a notable price increase, with several firms raising their price targets substantially.

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