US PPI Below Forecasts; Trump's Tariff Strategy Drives Market Volatility; BP Forecasts Q4 Impairments Amid Production Decline | MarketReader Minute

U.S. Producer Price Index release and potential tariff increases under Trump administration shape financial market expectations amid mixed global equity sentiment.

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Tuesday, January 14

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today: Bitcoin +2.1%. Ethereum +2.3%. GBP/USD -0.6%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Visa Inc (V) +0.9%. 

Recent market movements are significantly influenced by the anticipation surrounding U.S. inflation data, particularly the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is showed a month-over-month increase that fell short of expectations, with core PPI remaining unchanged. Year-over-year, PPI rose slightly below forecast levels, while core PPI met expectations.

Additionally, there is notable activity related to President-elect Donald Trump's economic policies as his team considers implementing gradual tariff increases of 2% to 5% per month on imports. This approach aims to mitigate sudden inflationary shocks while enhancing negotiating leverage with trade partners; however, it has contributed to fluctuations in currency values and overall risk sentiment across markets.

In Europe, positive momentum was observed following strong performances from Asian indices driven by expectations of supportive measures from China's central bank amid ongoing policy dilemmas. European stock futures indicate an upward trend ahead of key earnings reports this week alongside continued scrutiny over monetary easing prospects from the European Central Bank amidst concerns about slowing growth within Eurozone economies.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [+1.9%]
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has increased notably, surpassing $97,000 amid improving market risk sentiment. This rise follows a significant acquisition by Intesa Sanpaolo, Italy's largest bank, which purchased 11 BTC for over $1 million as part of its digital asset strategy. Earlier, MicroStrategy acquired 2,530 BTC for approximately $243 million, raising its total holdings to 450,000 BTC. The price movement reflects a recovery from a low of around $89,400 on Monday. Concurrently, recent Producer Price Index (PPI) data revealed a modest increase in factory gate prices, contributing to heightened inflation concerns. Additionally, outflows from Bitcoin ETFs suggest potential shifts in cryptocurrency dynamics. Discussions on social media highlight global attention on Bitcoin reserves and interest from politicians across five continents exploring BTC as a national asset.

iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) [+2.4%]
Chinese equities are experiencing a notable rebound today, driven by optimism regarding potential economic support measures from the People's Bank of China. This positive sentiment is reflected in FXI's daily return, which has increased by 2.36%. December's new loans in China reached 990 billion CNY, exceeding expectations and significantly surpassing previous figures. The People's Bank of China has reiterated its commitment to support economic growth, coinciding with gains in major indices, including a 2.54% rise in the Shanghai Composite and a 2.63% increase in the Shenzhen CSI 300. Notably, JD and LI have emerged as top contributors to FXI's performance. Social media discussions highlight concerns over severe damage to Tibetan monasteries from an earthquake and warnings about a potential bond market bubble, which may impact sentiment surrounding FXI.

URI | +3.2% | +1.5B
United Rentals Inc | Trading Companies & Distributors

United Rentals, Inc. has announced its agreement to acquire H&E Equipment Services, Inc. for $92 per share in cash, totaling approximately $4.8 billion, including around $1.4 billion in net debt. This acquisition, unanimously approved by both boards, is expected to close in the first quarter of 2025. United Rentals plans to initiate a tender offer by January 28, 2025, for all outstanding shares of H&E, followed by a second-step merger for any remaining shares. The deal is anticipated to enhance United Rentals' fleet by adding 64,000 units and expanding its operational footprint across more than 30 states. Discussions on social media have highlighted the strategic significance of this move within the sector, with positive sentiment surrounding its potential impact on United Rentals' market position and operational capabilities. Concurrently, H&E Equipment Services has experienced a notable surge in its stock price, reflecting significant movements within the equipment rental sector.

KBH | +10.1%| +540.8M
KB Home | Homebuilding

KB Home reported strong fourth-quarter results, with earnings per share of 2.52, surpassing analyst expectations of 2.44, and revenue of 2.00 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of 1.99 billion. This marks a 19% year-over-year revenue increase. The company delivered 3,978 homes in Q4, a 17% rise from the previous year. Net orders surged approximately 41% year-over-year to 2,688, reflecting robust demand amid improving housing market conditions. For fiscal year 2025, KB Home anticipates housing revenues between 7.00 billion and 7.50 billion, with an average selling price ranging from 488,000 to 498,000. Following these announcements, KB Home shares experienced a significant increase, closing up by nearly 12% after hours on October 24th, marking the largest single-day reaction for a top-10 homebuilder since 2021.

BP | -2.3% | -11.6B
BP PLC | Integrated Oil & Gas

BP PLC anticipates impairments ranging from $1.0 billion to $2.0 billion in the fourth quarter, with upstream production expected to decline from 2.4 million oil-equivalent barrels per day reported in the third quarter. The company projects lower oil production realizations, estimating a negative impact of $0.2 billion to $0.4 billion due to price lags, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico and UAE. Average Brent crude prices have decreased to $74.73 per barrel in Q4, down from $80.34 in Q3, leading to reduced refining margins. Additionally, BP forecasts lower results in its customers & products segment due to seasonally lower volumes and weaker fuel margins. Social media discussions highlighted a delay in BP's strategic update to February 26th, attributed to CEO Murray Auchincloss's medical procedure, alongside concerns about potential negative news during the earnings release and a revised effective tax rate of approximately 42%.

NVDA | +1.1%| +36.5B
NVIDIA Corp | Semiconductors

Loop Capital analyst Gary Mobley has initiated coverage on NVIDIA Corp with a Buy rating and a price target of 175.00. This comes as the company adapts to new semiconductor export regulations from the Biden administration, which categorize countries for GPU export controls. Despite a recent decline in stock price, NVIDIA's shares have increased significantly over the past year. Concurrently, CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to visit China this week, while Jay Puri, NVIDIA's VP of Global Operations, has sold 5.5 million worth of shares. Additionally, Huang may arrive in Taiwan today for meetings with supply chain partners. Recent discussions also highlighted ongoing delays in the mass production of NVIDIA's GB200 NVL72 server racks and potential impacts from an executive order aimed at supporting AI data centers, positioning NVIDIA as a key player in the evolving semiconductor landscape.

SIG | -17.8% | -483.0M
Signet Jewelers Ltd | Other Specialty Retail

Signet Jewelers Ltd has significantly revised its fourth-quarter guidance, anticipating total sales of $2.32 billion to $2.34 billion, a decrease from the previous estimate of $2.38 billion to $2.46 billion. Same-store sales are now projected to decline between 2.5% and 2%, contrasting sharply with earlier forecasts of flat to 3% growth. Adjusted operating income is expected to range between $337 million and $347 million, down from an earlier guidance of $397 million to $427 million. The company reported a year-over-year drop of approximately 2% in same-store sales, attributing this decline to consumers increasingly choosing lower-priced items over higher-end fashion gifts. These developments have led to a notable decline in the company’s stock price.

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