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Friday, January 17

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today: Nasdaq 100 Index (US) +1.4%. S&P 500 Index (US) +0.8%. Bitcoin +2.8%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Alphabet Inc (GOOG) +1.3%. Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) +1.3%. Apple Inc (AAPL) +1.2%. 

Recent economic data releases have shown significant developments impacting market sentiment. In the United States, housing starts surged by 15.8% in December to an annualized rate of 1,499,000 units—well above expectations—and building permits fell less than anticipated at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.483 million for the same month. This positive momentum contrasts with weaker retail sales figures from the UK, which unexpectedly declined by 0.3%, raising concerns about consumer spending and putting pressure on GBP.

In central bank news, comments from European Central Bank officials suggest ongoing discussions around interest rates amidst rising inflation pressures within the Eurozone; final CPI readings confirmed that inflation accelerated to a five-month high of 2.4%. Meanwhile, anticipation builds ahead of next week's policy meeting for Japan's Bank of Japan (BoJ), where many expect an interest rate hike due to improving economic conditions and potential shifts in monetary policy under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration that could influence global trade dynamics.

Market reactions reflect these mixed signals: US stock futures are trading higher following strong earnings reports despite recent declines across major indices like Nasdaq and S&P500 amid profit-taking activities after earlier gains this week driven largely by optimistic growth forecasts out of China as it reported GDP growth hitting its target at approximately 5% for last year alongside robust industrial production numbers exceeding estimates.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [+2.8%]
Bitcoin's price has increased, surpassing $101,000, amid a daily return of approximately 2.8%. This rise coincides with President-elect Donald Trump's plans to prioritize cryptocurrency as a national interest, which may reshape regulatory policies for digital assets in the U.S. The market is experiencing mixed sentiment from traders, who anticipate potential corrections. Additionally, Bitcoin's market cap has surged back to $2 trillion, nearing that of Amazon. Publicly listed U.S. crypto mining companies have doubled their Bitcoin holdings over the past year, with Marathon Digital Holdings holding nearly 45,000 BTC. Meanwhile, the Royal Government of Bhutan moved over 250 BTC to unknown wallets while retaining a significant amount. Ethereum also saw a notable increase, reflecting a strong correlation with Bitcoin's performance.

Invesco QQQ Trust Series I (QQQ) [+1.1%]
The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) experienced a pre-market increase of approximately 1.1%, reflecting a broader upward trend in major stock market ETFs. Earlier today, QQQ traded up to $515.33. This positive movement coincides with U.S. stock futures recovering from prior losses, highlighting resilience within the technology sector. Social media discussions noted that QQQ had previously declined, mirroring trends from earlier bounces that resulted in lower lows. Notably, some users expressed concerns about rising bearish sentiment and the ETF being around 5% off its highs. Significant movements among QQQ's holdings included gains from NVDA, AVGO, AAPL, MSFT, and INTC. Microsoft announced substantial investments in AI infrastructure, while Intel's shares rose amid unconfirmed takeover speculation. Additionally, the Dow Jones Index increased by 0.63%, aligning with the performance of QQQ.

JBHT | -7.6% | -1.4B
J B Hunt Transport Services Inc | Cargo Ground Transportation
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. reported Q4 earnings on January 16, 2025, with an EPS of 1.53, missing the analyst estimate of 1.63 by approximately 6%. Revenue for the quarter was 3.15 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate of 3.13 billion but down 5% year-over-year. The intermodal segment generated revenue of 1.6 billion, a decrease of 2% from the previous year, despite a 5% increase in volume. Following these results, analysts from firms including Barclays and Stephens lowered their price targets for J.B. Hunt, with Barclays setting a new target at 180, down from 190. Social media discussions highlighted the earnings call presentation, noting that dedicated revenue was reported at 838.5 million, slightly below expectations, while intermodal revenue exceeded estimates. After-hours trading saw a decline of 1.4%, followed by an additional drop of 1.8% this morning.

NVO | -4.1%| -10.9B
Novo Nordisk A/S | Pharmaceuticals
Novo Nordisk A/S has reported significant results from its STEP UP obesity trial, showing a weight loss of over 20% after 72 weeks with Semaglutide 7.2 mg, surpassing both Semaglutide 2.4 mg and placebo outcomes. Despite these promising findings, the stock declined approximately 3% in premarket trading, falling to $80.26, amid concerns regarding Medicare price negotiations targeting its products, Ozempic and Wegovy. The trial involved 1,407 adults, with over 33% achieving more than 25% weight loss. Social media discussions highlighted the trial's favorable safety profile but also noted worries about the stock's performance, particularly in light of competition from Eli Lilly's Zepbound, which reportedly achieved a greater body weight loss over a longer duration. Detailed findings from the STEP UP trial are expected to be presented at a scientific conference in 2025.

RIVN | +3.0% | +440.7M
Rivian Automotive Inc | Automobile Manufacturers
Rivian Automotive Inc's stock price has increased, moving in tandem with the broader market. The company recently secured a loan agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy for up to $6.6 billion to fund a new manufacturing facility in Stanton Springs, Georgia. This initiative is expected to create approximately 7,500 jobs and facilitate the production of Rivian's upcoming R2 SUV and R3 crossover, with construction set to begin in 2026 and production anticipated by 2028. Additionally, Volkswagen's CEO has expressed intentions to deepen collaboration with Rivian, enhancing their existing joint venture valued at $5.8 billion. Positive sentiment has been reflected in recent social media discussions regarding this partnership and the loan agreement, which contributed to a reported increase in Rivian's stock price following the announcement.

AAL | +2.8%| +343.9M
American Airlines Group Inc | Passenger Airlines
American Airlines Group Inc. experienced a significant increase in its stock price following an upgrade by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which raised its rating from underperform to neutral and adjusted the price target from 12.00 to 20.00 per share. In premarket trading, the stock rose by approximately 2%. The company reported fewer than 10 flight diversions due to a SpaceX Starship test flight mishap, which primarily affected other airlines. Additionally, American Airlines is expected to announce its Q4 FY2024 earnings on January 23, 2025, with an EPS estimate of 0.39 and a revenue estimate of 13.1 billion, unchanged from previous expectations. The Dow Jones Index also increased by 0.61%, reflecting broader market sentiment that may influence American Airlines' recent price movement.

FAST | -5.5% | -2.2B
Fastenal Co | Trading Companies & Distributors
Fastenal Company reported its fourth-quarter earnings, posting an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.46, missing the consensus estimate of 0.48. Revenue for the quarter reached 1.82 billion, falling short of the anticipated 1.84 billion. The company’s net income was 262.1 million, down from 266.4 million in the same quarter last year. Following these results, Fastenal experienced a premarket decline of 6%. Additionally, discussions on social media highlighted a recent increase in Fastenal's quarterly dividend by 10.3% to 0.43 per share, marking the 26th consecutive annual dividend increase for the company. This news emerged approximately 15 hours ago, amidst a backdrop of mixed sentiment regarding the company's financial performance and future outlook.

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