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Wednesday, October 22

Noteworthy macro moves today: Gold -2.2%.
Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Alphabet Inc (GOOG) +2.3%. Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) +2.3%.

Recent economic data from the UK indicates a rise in producer inflation, with factory gate prices increasing by 3.4% year-on-year as of September 2025. This surpasses previous estimates and contributes to expectations for potential monetary policy adjustments. Additionally, core consumer inflation edged down slightly to 3.5%, missing market forecasts but still reflecting ongoing price pressures that could influence future Bank of England decisions.

In Japan, trade figures revealed an unexpected deficit of JPY 234 billion for September due to stronger-than-expected import growth outpacing export increases; this has implications for currency valuation and overall economic health amid rising concerns about persistent domestic inflationary pressures leading up to anticipated interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan later this quarter.

On the geopolitical front, U.S.-China relations remain uncertain following mixed signals regarding upcoming high-level talks between President Trump and Chinese officials aimed at easing tariff tensions ahead of critical negotiations scheduled around November's APEC summit. This uncertainty is reflected in fluctuating investor sentiment across global equity markets while traders await key U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data expected on Friday that may further shape Federal Reserve monetary policy outlooks amidst a prolonged government shutdown impacting broader financial conditions.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [-1.4%]
Shares of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) are down significantly in pre-market trading, reflecting continued weakness following a notable decline earlier this week. Gold prices have dropped, driven by profit-taking and a stronger US Dollar, while ongoing uncertainty related to the U.S. government shutdown further complicates market dynamics. Social media discussions highlight a recent 6.4% drop in GLD, marking its largest daily decline in over 12 years. Users noted that gold prices have retreated nearly 7.5% from their peak, with volatility spiking to a five-year high amid geopolitical tensions. Silver has also declined, mirroring gold's trend, which may be contributing to GLD's recent price movement. Overall, there is a prevailing sentiment of concern regarding GLD's performance amidst these broader market dynamics.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) [-0.6%]
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has seen a decline of 0.6% in pre-market trading. Recent comments from a German economy ministry spokesperson have raised concerns about ongoing difficulties in the chip supply chain, potentially affecting semiconductor production and availability. Additionally, the U.S. government shutdown, now in its twenty-second day, is contributing to uncertainty in financial markets, delaying key economic data releases. In company-specific news, Texas Instruments reported Q3 earnings that fell short of estimates, leading to a significant drop in its share price after hours. This decline was mirrored by other top contributors to the ETF's performance, including Analog Devices and Marvell Technology. Furthermore, the Nasdaq 100 Index has also experienced a slight decline, reflecting broader market sentiment that may be influencing SMH's recent performance.

NFLX | -7.7% | -38.1B
Netflix Inc | Movies & Entertainment
Netflix's stock has dropped significantly following the release of its third-quarter earnings report. The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of 5.87, falling short of analyst expectations of 6.96. Revenue met consensus at 11.51 billion, reflecting a 17% year-over-year increase. However, the operating margin decreased to 28%, below the anticipated 31.5%, primarily due to a 619 million expense related to a tax dispute in Brazil. Following the earnings announcement, shares faced considerable pressure, declining by approximately 6% in after-hours trading. The company maintained its full-year revenue guidance at 45.1 billion. Additionally, Netflix's guidance for fourth-quarter EPS is projected at 5.45, slightly above the consensus of 5.43. Despite achieving record advertising sales and user engagement, concerns regarding consumer spending and regulatory challenges have overshadowed these positives.

ISRG | +18.2% | +35.3B
Intuitive Surgical Inc | Health Care Equipment
Intuitive Surgical reported strong third-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of $2.40 per share, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.98. Revenue reached $2.51 billion, exceeding expectations of $2.41 billion and reflecting a 23% year-over-year increase. The company placed 427 da Vinci surgical systems during the quarter, up from 379 the previous year, bringing the installed base to 10,763 systems. Worldwide procedures grew approximately 20%, particularly in da Vinci and Ion systems. Following these results, analysts from JPMorgan and RBC raised their price targets to $625, while BTIG set a target at $589. The company also updated its guidance for worldwide da Vinci procedure growth to 17% to 17.5% for the full year 2025, an increase from prior estimates. After-hours trading saw shares rise significantly following the earnings announcement.

BCS | +5.0% | +15.1B
Barclays PLC | Diversified Banks
Barclays PLC reported its Q3 results, showing a net income of GBP 1.457 billion, a decline from GBP 1.564 billion year-over-year. Pre-tax income also fell to GBP 2.077 billion from GBP 2.232 billion in the prior year. Despite this, total income rose to GBP 7.167 billion, up from GBP 6.547 billion last year, and net interest income increased to GBP 3.745 billion from GBP 3.308 billion. The company achieved quarterly earnings per share (EPS) of GBP 0.10, with sales of GBP 7.17 billion, surpassing expectations. Additionally, Barclays has raised its outlook for 2025 and announced a transition to quarterly share buybacks, beginning with a £500 million program this quarter. The bank anticipates a return on tangible equity exceeding 11% and has increased its net interest income guidance to over £12.6 billion.

TXN | -7.6% | -11.5B
Texas Instruments Inc | Semiconductors
Texas Instruments reported mixed third-quarter results on October 21, 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.48, slightly below the consensus estimate of $1.49, and revenue of $4.74 billion, surpassing expectations of $4.65 billion. The fourth-quarter outlook is disappointing, projecting revenue between $4.22 billion and $4.58 billion and EPS guidance of $1.13 to $1.39, both falling short of analyst estimates. This negative guidance is linked to macroeconomic uncertainties affecting demand for its analog chips amid ongoing Sino-U.S. trade tensions. Following the earnings announcement, Texas Instruments shares fell significantly in after-hours trading, with reports indicating a decline of approximately 8%. CEO comments highlighted a slower recovery in the semiconductor market due to these broader economic factors, further contributing to the stock's decline.

VRT | +7.2% | +5.0B
Vertiv Holdings Co | Electrical Components & Equipment
Vertiv Holdings Co reported robust third-quarter results, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 1.24, surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.99 by 25.5%. Sales reached 2.676 billion, exceeding expectations of 2.562 billion and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 29%. The company raised its fiscal year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of 4.07 to 4.13, up from a previous range of 3.75 to 3.85, and increased its sales guidance to 10.160 billion to 10.240 billion, from 9.925 billion to 10.075 billion. For the fourth quarter, Vertiv anticipates adjusted EPS of 1.23 to 1.29 and revenue of 2.81 billion to 2.89 billion, both above analyst forecasts. Social media discussions highlighted these financial metrics and the company’s strategic position for growth through 2025 and into 2026. Additionally, a notable increase in Amphenol Corp's shares may correlate with Vertiv's recent price movement.

MANH | -9.4% | -1.1B
Manhattan Associates Inc | Application Software
Manhattan Associates Inc. reported its third-quarter financial results on October 21, 2025, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 1.36, surpassing the consensus estimate of 1.19. Revenue for the quarter reached 275.8 million, exceeding expectations of 271.8 million. Despite this performance, shares declined significantly by 7.65% following the announcement. The company replenished its share repurchase authority to 100 million and provided FY25 adjusted EPS guidance of 4.95-4.97, above the consensus of 4.83. Barclays subsequently lowered its price target for the stock from 247 to 244 while maintaining an Overweight rating. Notably, after the earnings announcement, the stock moved down 11.4% within 40 minutes.

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