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Monday, December 30

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today: S&P 500 Index (US) -1.2%. Nasdaq 100 Index (US) -1.4%. US 10Y Treasury Bond +0.4%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Broadcom Inc (AVGO) -3.0%. Tesla Inc (TSLA) -2.6%. NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) -2.1%. 

Recent economic data releases indicate a slowdown in business sentiment in Canada, with the CFIB’s Business Barometer dropping to 56.4 from 59.8. This reflects concerns about aggregate demand amid prolonged restrictive rates by the Bank of Canada. In Japan, manufacturing activity remains below growth levels as evidenced by a slight increase in the au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI to 49.6 for December.

In financial markets, U.S. stock futures are poised for declines following significant losses on Friday across major indices due to rising Treasury yields and profit-taking ahead of year-end trading activities; this has dampened expectations for a traditional "Santa Rally." The Dow Jones fell over 300 points during that session while other indexes also recorded notable drops.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions surrounding potential tariff increases under President-elect Trump's administration have raised uncertainties regarding global trade dynamics and inflationary pressures within large economies like Germany and Australia facing similar stagflation risks amidst political instability affecting market confidence overall.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) [-1.2%]
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has experienced a decline of 1.2% since Friday. Concerns have emerged regarding concentration risk within S&P 500 index ETFs, as the top ten stocks represent a significant portion of the index's market capitalization. This lack of diversification raises alarms about potential vulnerability during market volatility. Social media discussions reflect a cautious sentiment, with mentions of lower U.S. stock futures and anticipation of upcoming Federal Reserve speakers, which could influence market conditions. The ETF's year-to-date performance remains strong, significantly outpacing its equal-weight counterpart. Notably, major holdings such as NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Broadcom have all reported declines in their stock prices, contributing negatively to SPY's overall performance. Additionally, broader market sentiment has been impacted by geopolitical tensions and recent aviation safety concerns, further exacerbating volatility in the S&P 500 Index.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [+1.0%]
U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 4.2 million barrels, totaling 416.8 million barrels for the week ending December 20, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Crude oil production rose by 23,000 barrels per day to 13.58 million barrels per day. In contrast, crude oil imports increased by 97,000 barrels per day to 6.6 million barrels per day, while exports fell by 235,000 barrels per day. Total gasoline stockpiles grew by 1.7 million barrels to 223.7 million barrels, and distillate stocks declined by 1.7 million barrels to 116.5 million barrels. Concurrently, lower oil prices have spurred consumer spending, which has been a topic of discussion on social media. Additionally, Brent oil prices have risen due to the notable drop in U.S. crude inventories and ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

BA | -3.4%| -3.7B
Boeing Co | Aerospace & Defense
Boeing Co is experiencing a significant decline in pre-market trading, moving lower alongside the broader market. This drop is compounded by heightened scrutiny following a tragic incident involving a Jeju Air Boeing 737-800, which resulted in the loss of 179 lives. In response, South Korea's government has mandated inspections of all Boeing 737-800 aircraft operated by domestic airlines. Additionally, Boeing's stock has faced a notable decline this year, attributed to ongoing challenges and production restrictions following prior incidents. Social media discussions reveal growing concerns about safety and operational reliability, particularly after multiple aircraft incidents involving Boeing planes. The Dow Jones Index has also declined, reflecting a broader negative sentiment that may influence investor behavior towards Boeing.

TSLA | -2.5% | -33.3B
Tesla Inc | Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla Inc. has seen a price decline of 2.5%, aligning with broader market movements, as U.S. stock futures trade lower following significant losses last Friday. The S&P 500 index has also dropped, reflecting overall market sentiment. In company-specific news, Tesla has introduced a limited-time offer of free lifetime supercharging for customers purchasing the foundation series Cybertruck, effective December 27, amid indications of inventory challenges. The company aims to deliver at least 514,926 vehicles in the fourth quarter to surpass its previous record. Social media discussions reveal concerns regarding a 40% year-over-year drop in sales in Europe and mixed sentiments about Tesla's future performance, particularly due to Elon Musk's political involvement. UBS analysts project Q4 deliveries at 510,000, slightly below consensus expectations, while GLJ Research anticipates deliveries around 493,215 units, citing a lack of customer enthusiasm.

MU | -1.7% | -1.6B
Micron Technology Inc | Semiconductors
Micron Technology Inc has experienced a decline of 1.7%, aligning with a broader market downturn. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has dropped nearly 1%, influenced by concerns regarding the concentration of holdings in S&P 500 index ETFs, as highlighted by investor Chamath Palihapitiya. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 Index has decreased by approximately 1.1%. Recent social media discussions have emphasized Micron's CEO projecting a fourfold increase in the total addressable market for high-bandwidth memory, expected to rise from $16 billion in 2024 to over $100 billion by 2030. Additionally, Micron went ex-dividend at $0.115 per share, a detail that may have contributed to current trading dynamics.

AVGO | -2.3%| -2.6B
Broadcom Inc | Semiconductors
Broadcom Inc has experienced a notable decline of 2.3% in pre-market trading, aligning with a broader market downturn. This movement coincides with significant losses across major U.S. indices, including a substantial drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and declines in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and Nasdaq 100 Index. Recent insider selling by key executives, including the Chief Legal and Corporate Affairs Officer and the President and CEO, may reflect internal sentiment regarding the company's stock performance. Furthermore, social media discussions highlight concerns about price levels for Broadcom, alongside optimism regarding the semiconductor sector's relative strength amidst shifting AI spending trends. The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to rising Treasury yields and inflationary pressures linked to potential tariff increases.

GOOGL | -1.3% | -30.9B
Alphabet Inc | Interactive Media & Services
Alphabet Inc is experiencing a decline, moving in tandem with the broader market, which is also down significantly. U.S. stock futures have dropped as investors prepare for key economic indicators, including the Chicago PMI and pending home sales, expected to be released today. These developments come amid rising Treasury yields that reached near eight-month highs last week. Additionally, concerns regarding inflation due to potential tariff increases under the incoming administration are affecting global investor sentiment. In specific news related to Alphabet, India's payments regulator is poised to make a critical decision that could impose a 30% market share cap on the Unified Payments Interface network, where Google Pay currently holds 37.1% of transactions. This regulatory scrutiny highlights the competitive landscape in India’s digital economy. Meanwhile, Sundar Pichai has emphasized the importance of execution and product quality in the competition between Gemini and ChatGPT for 2025.

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