U.S. Retail & Manufacturing Indicators Soften, Fed Meeting and Trump-Putin Talks Ahead; Netflix Gains on Upgrade | MarketReader Minute

U.S. Economic Data Shows Weakness with Retail Sales and Manufacturing Declines, While Market Eyes Fed Meeting Amid Recession Fears and Geopolitical Tensions Ahead of Trump-Putin Talks.

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Monday, March 17

Noteworthy macro moves today: Oil (WTI) +1.2%. 

Recent economic data releases have highlighted a mixed picture for the U.S. economy, with retail sales in February rising by only 0.2%, significantly below expectations of 0.6%. This follows a downward revision to January's figures, which now show a contraction of 1.2%. Additionally, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index reported an unexpected decline into negative territory at -20.

In geopolitical developments, President Trump is set to meet Russian President Putin on Tuesday to discuss potential peace talks regarding Ukraine and other territorial matters amid ongoing tensions between both nations. Concurrently, there are concerns surrounding Trump's tariff policies that could further impact market sentiment as reciprocal tariffs loom ahead on April 2nd.

Market participants are also closely watching upcoming central bank meetings this week; notably the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision scheduled for Wednesday where no changes in interest rates are anticipated but discussions around future rate cuts may arise due to softening economic indicators and recession fears expressed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent amidst recent volatility across equity markets.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [+1.1%]
Crude oil prices have risen, with West Texas Intermediate crude increasing to $67.60 per barrel following U.S. airstrikes against Yemen's Houthis, aimed at countering their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. Brent crude has similarly increased, now trading around $71.03 per barrel. This upward movement coincides with ongoing geopolitical tensions in Yemen. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its oil price forecasts downward, predicting Brent will reach $71 per barrel by December 2025, citing expectations of slower U.S. economic growth and anticipated supply increases from OPEC+. The market is currently balancing these geopolitical developments with the negative impacts of U.S. tariffs and positive stimulative measures from China designed to enhance domestic consumption and economic recovery.

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) [-0.5%]
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) has experienced a decline of 0.5% in pre-market trading, continuing a trend from the previous week where it dropped significantly by over 3%. This performance aligns with broader market movements, as both the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) also reported losses. Recent economic analysis from Morgan Stanley suggests the U.S. economy is "stuck in neutral," with projected GDP growth at a sluggish pace. Social media discussions are focused on upcoming Federal Reserve announcements, which are anticipated to influence market dynamics. Additionally, significant movements among DIA's holdings include declines from major contributors like Microsoft and Visa. The Dow Jones Index is down approximately 0.3%, reflecting ongoing concerns about economic stability and geopolitical tensions, further compounding the uncertainty in market sentiment.

INCY | -15.1% | -2.0B
Incyte Corp | Biotechnology

Incyte Corporation has reported positive topline results from its Phase 3 STOP-HS clinical trial program for povorcitinib, an oral JAK1 inhibitor targeting moderate to severe hidradenitis suppurativa. Both the STOP-HS1 and STOP-HS2 studies met their primary endpoints, demonstrating a significant reduction in abscess and inflammatory nodule counts among treated patients compared to placebo. The safety profile remained consistent with previous data, showing no new safety signals. Despite these favorable results, Incyte shares are experiencing a notable pre-market decline of approximately 14%. Social media discussions reflect mixed sentiments, with some users attributing the drop to perceived disappointing efficacy relative to existing biologics.

DOCU | +2.1% | +378.4M
DocuSign Inc | Application Software

DocuSign Inc. reported a 9% revenue increase and an adjusted EPS of 86 cents, exceeding expectations. This performance was highlighted in a social media post after market hours yesterday. The company experienced a transformative fiscal 2025, marked by the launch of its Intelligent Agreement Management (IAM) platform, which has become its fastest-growing product. In the fourth quarter, DocuSign achieved revenue of $776 million and improved its dollar net retention rate to 101%. The firm is focused on enhancing customer value through product innovation, operational efficiency, and expanding self-service capabilities and international presence. Looking forward, DocuSign aims for sustained growth driven by IAM and increased customer engagement across various sectors.

PLTR | +2.6% | +5.2B
Palantir Technologies Inc | Application Software

Palantir Technologies Inc. has seen a price increase in premarket trading, reaching $88.44, reflecting a significant rebound from last Monday's low. The stock is currently trading above its 50-day moving average. CEO Alex Karp highlighted the importance of Japan collaborating with the U.S. on an AI defense targeting system, which may enhance Palantir's standing in defense technology. Recent social media discussions have noted Karp's rising prominence among world leaders and his views on the UK's advantages in the AI sector. Additionally, Palantir's revenue growth remains strong, with fourth-quarter figures surpassing expectations. The company has also formed a strategic partnership with KT, a major Korean telecom firm, focusing on AI transformation in Korea. Notably, Stephen Cohen, co-founder of Palantir, recently sold over $300 million in shares, marking his largest sale in over a year.

NFLX | +1.3% | +5.0B
Netflix Inc | Movies & Entertainment

Netflix Inc (NFLX) is experiencing a pre-market increase of 1.3% following an upgrade by Moffett Nathanson from Neutral to Buy, with a new price target set at 1,100. The firm highlighted Netflix's potential for improved monetization and additional revenue streams, particularly through its ad-supported tier, which could generate substantial ad revenue by 2027 and 2030. Analysts anticipate margin expansion of at least 200 basis points annually, potentially reaching 40% operating margins by 2030. Concurrently, social media discussions reflect mixed reactions to Netflix's recent release, "Electric State," which, despite harsh criticism from critics, has garnered viewer appreciation, ranking as the #1 movie on the platform. Recent posts emphasize Netflix's growing power in the industry and confirm its current trading price at 918.00, up 12 points.

NVDA | +1.2% | +37.4B
NVIDIA Corp | Semiconductors

NVIDIA Corp is facing heightened competition as Qingcheng.AI, a Chinese start-up, has launched an AI framework named "Chitu," which reportedly enhances inference speed by 315% while reducing GPU usage on NVIDIA's A800 GPUs. This development raises concerns regarding NVIDIA's market dominance amidst a broader push for technological self-sufficiency by Chinese firms in light of U.S. export restrictions. Anticipation is building for NVIDIA's upcoming GPU Technology Conference (GTC) on March 18, where CEO Jensen Huang is expected to address investor concerns about next-gen AI chips, particularly the B300 AI chip, projected to deliver a 50% performance improvement over its predecessor. Recent social media discussions highlight a bullish sentiment following a notable stock increase earlier in March, with expectations for announcements regarding new AI chips and technology advancements at the GTC.

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