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Friday, March 7

Noteworthy macro moves today: US 10Y Treasury Bond +0.4%. US Dollar Index -0.5%. US 2Y Treasury Bond +0.1%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Broadcom Inc (AVGO) +7.9%. Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) +0.8%.

The U.S. labor market data released today indicates that non-farm payrolls increased by 151,000 in February, falling short of the expected 160,000 and reflecting a downward revision from January's figures. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, slightly above expectations, while average hourly earnings grew at a slower pace than anticipated.

In Europe, uncertainty surrounding President Trump's trade policies continues to weigh on investor sentiment as markets react cautiously ahead of key economic indicators such as today's jobs report from the U.S., which is influencing trading decisions across major indices including declines seen in European stocks like Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40.

Additionally, discussions around monetary policy are intensifying with Federal Reserve officials emphasizing caution amid ongoing volatility. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted significant uncertainties affecting prices and employment due to tariffs impacting costs but refrained from immediate action until clearer trends emerge later this spring or summer.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [+1.9%]
The United States Oil Fund LP (USO) has experienced a price increase of 1.9% in pre-market trading on Friday. The U.S. Energy Chief has announced plans to seek $20 billion to replenish the oil reserve, which may affect market sentiment regarding oil investments. Concurrently, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has risen by 1.45%, reaching $67.31. However, social media discussions highlight that oil prices have dropped over 4% this week, suggesting the potential for the largest weekly decline since October, driven by volatility linked to U.S. tariffs. Additionally, Saudi Arabia is reducing oil prices for buyers in Asia, with a specific cut of 40 cents per barrel for Arab Light crude in April, coinciding with OPEC+ easing production restrictions. Brent crude has also risen, reaching $70.06 per barrel, as markets respond to supply dynamics and ongoing tariff-related concerns.

EUR/USD (EUR/USD) [+0.8%]
The EUR/USD has strengthened today, reflecting a favorable environment for the Euro. This comes as traders reassess the European Central Bank's dovish stance following Germany's announcement of a €500 billion infrastructure fund and changes to its debt policy. Additionally, President Trump's tariff exemptions on imports from Canada and Mexico under the USMCA until April 2nd have contributed to heightened demand for Euros amid concerns regarding U.S. economic policies. Social media discussions highlight geopolitical tensions, with French President Macron's remarks on Russia and former President Trump's comments on NATO defense commitments. In economic updates, Nomura has revised its forecast for ECB rate cuts, now anticipating only one cut in 2025. France's reserve assets have increased significantly, while Germany reported a sharp decline in factory orders. Meanwhile, Europe's overall employment figures for Q4 matched expectations, contrasting with a decrease in Spain's industrial production.

HPE | -17.4% | -3.3B
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. shares have dropped significantly following recent announcements. The company plans to cut approximately 2,500 jobs, equating to a 5% reduction in its workforce, as part of a cost-saving initiative targeting $350 million in savings by fiscal year 2027. In its earnings call, HPE provided disappointing second-quarter guidance, projecting adjusted earnings per share between $0.28 and $0.34, which falls short of analysts' expectations of $0.50. Revenue guidance for the quarter is set between $7.2 billion and $7.6 billion, notably below the consensus estimate of $7.93 billion. This negative outlook coincides with uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policies that affect the industry. Additionally, HPE reported Q1 earnings with actual earnings per share matching expectations at $0.49 and revenues exceeding forecasts at $7.9 billion.

IOT | -9.5% | -2.0B
Samsara Inc | Application Software
Samsara Inc's shares have dropped significantly following the release of its Q4 financial results. The company reported an adjusted EPS of 0.11, surpassing the estimate of 0.07, and revenues of 346.3 million, exceeding the consensus of 335.37 million. Despite these positive figures, multiple firms have lowered their price targets for the stock. The Q1 revenue guidance of 350 million to 352 million falls slightly short of the consensus estimate of 351.35 million. Additionally, the FY26 adjusted EPS guidance of 0.32 to 0.34 aligns closely with analyst expectations of 0.28. The earnings report also indicated a year-over-year revenue growth of 25% and an increase in customers generating over 100K in annual recurring revenue by 36% to 2,506. Following the announcement, shares experienced a notable decline in after-hours trading.

AVGO | +9.8% | +8.9B
Broadcom Inc | Semiconductors
Broadcom Inc. reported its first-quarter fiscal results on March 6, 2025, achieving revenue of $14.92 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $14.61 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.60, exceeding the forecast of $1.49. The company noted a substantial year-over-year growth in AI semiconductor revenue, which rose 77% to $4.1 billion. Broadcom also provided an optimistic outlook for the second quarter, projecting revenue of approximately $14.9 billion, higher than the consensus estimate of $14.73 billion. Following these announcements, shares surged nearly 13% in after-hours trading. Social media discussions highlighted the strong earnings report, emphasizing a 25% year-over-year revenue increase and a 41% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $10.08 billion, further reflecting positive market sentiment around Broadcom's performance in the AI sector.

COO | -5.0% | -866.1M
Cooper Companies Inc | Health Care Supplies
Cooper Companies Inc. reported first-quarter results that fell short of Wall Street expectations, resulting in a significant drop in share price. Total revenue reached $964.7 million, missing estimates of $978.1 million. The CooperVision division generated $646.1 million, below the anticipated $651.3 million, while the surgical division's revenue rose 3% to $318.6 million but still did not meet estimates of $326.1 million. Adjusted earnings per share were reported at $0.92, slightly exceeding the consensus of $0.91. The company reiterated its fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance of $4.08 billion to $4.16 billion, which is below analyst expectations of $4.12 billion. Following these results, shares dropped approximately 10.4% shortly after the earnings announcement, contributing to a decline of around 5% in after-hours trading.

COST | -2.0% | -8.8B
Costco Wholesale Corp | Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Costco Wholesale Corp reported mixed results for its second fiscal quarter, with earnings per share of 4.02, falling short of the consensus estimate of 4.11. Revenue reached 63.72 billion, exceeding expectations of 63.08 billion. Comparable sales increased by 6.8%, surpassing forecasts of 6.4%. Despite these positive revenue figures, the company expressed concerns about inflation and tariffs affecting consumer behavior, as CEO Ron Vachris noted that a significant portion of sales comes from imported goods, making them vulnerable to tariff impacts. Following the earnings report, Costco shares declined in after-hours trading, reflecting apprehension regarding the company's outlook amid these economic pressures. Social media discussions highlighted that approximately one-third of U.S. sales consist of imported products, with less than half sourced from China, Mexico, and Canada.

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