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Monday, January 13

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today: Ethereum -6.0%. Bitcoin -3.3%. Oil (WTI) +1.9%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) +3.0%. NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) -3.1%. Tesla Inc (TSLA) -2.8%. 

Recent economic data from the U.S. has significantly impacted market sentiment, particularly following a robust nonfarm payroll report on Friday that revealed 256,000 jobs added in December—well above expectations of 165,000. This strong labor demand and an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1% have led investors to reassess their outlook on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts for this year; many now anticipate only one cut instead of multiple reductions previously expected.

In addition to domestic employment figures influencing markets, geopolitical factors are also at play as President-elect Donald Trump prepares for his inauguration later this month. Concerns about potential tariffs under Trump's administration could further exacerbate inflationary pressures and contribute to rising bond yields—a trend already observed with significant increases noted across various government bonds globally.

Meanwhile, global equity indices are experiencing downward pressure amid these developments; major stock indexes such as the S&P 500 and European equities have seen declines due largely to heightened risk aversion among investors reacting negatively not just towards U.S.-specific news but also broader uncertainties regarding monetary policy adjustments by central banks worldwide amidst fluctuating inflation concerns.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [-3.3%]
Bitcoin's price has dropped significantly by 3.3% over the past day, amid concerns regarding an overheated U.S. economy and expectations of interest rate adjustments from the Federal Reserve following a robust non-farm payrolls report. The report indicated substantial job growth, leading to speculation about potential rate hikes rather than cuts. Additionally, market sentiment is being affected by fears of inflationary pressures linked to anticipated tariffs under Trump-era policies, which have contributed to bearish trends across cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. Social media discussions highlight a notable decline in Bitcoin network activity, raising analyst concerns about a potential price drop to 70,000. Earlier today, Bitcoin fell to approximately 91,000 due to a global selloff, with alternative cryptocurrencies experiencing even more severe losses. Ethereum has also declined significantly, reflecting broader market sentiment that likely impacts Bitcoin's price movement.

Invesco QQQ Trust Series I (QQQ) [-1.0%]
U.S. stock futures declined this morning, reflecting continued market pressures following last week's significant losses. The Nasdaq 100 futures fell, with the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF dropping in premarket trading. This downturn coincides with a robust jobs report revealing substantial job additions in December, raising concerns over inflation and potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Consequently, U.S. Treasury yields have risen. Social media discussions highlight upcoming economic data releases, including PPI and CPI inflation reports, which are expected to influence market volatility. Additionally, significant movements among QQQ's holdings include declines from Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, and Moderna, driven by various challenges such as export restrictions, market conditions, and revised revenue forecasts. The Dow Jones Index also decreased, suggesting a correlation with QQQ's recent price action.

MRNA | -19.3% | -2.5B
Moderna Inc | Biotechnology
Moderna Inc has revised its 2025 revenue forecast to a range of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, down from a previous estimate of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion and below the consensus of $2.94 billion. This adjustment follows disappointing expectations for COVID-19 vaccine sales, which are projected to decline due to reduced demand. The company reported anticipated product sales for 2024 between $3.0 billion and $3.1 billion, primarily driven by U.S. sales. Additionally, Moderna is implementing cost-cutting measures aimed at reducing operating expenses by $1 billion in 2025 and an additional $500 million in 2026. Following this news, the stock price experienced a significant decline of approximately 19%. Social media discussions noted this drop, highlighting concerns regarding the company's forecasts and the impact on its stock price, which has reached levels not seen since early 2020.

UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) |+3.7% |+18.1B
Managed Health Care
UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) is experiencing a notable price increase, aligning with significant movements in the Managed Health Care sector. Recent social media discussions have highlighted the Biden administration's final Medicare Advantage regulation, anticipated to boost payments to insurers, with UNH being a major player in this market. Posts from January 10th noted a projected increase in Medicare Advantage rates for 2026 by 4.33%, as indicated by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Additionally, UNH's stock was reported at 520.69 during the J.P. Morgan healthcare investment conference. The company is set to announce its Q4 FY2024 earnings on January 16, 2025, with an EPS estimate of 6.92 and revenue expectations of 101.1 billion, both reflecting upward revisions from previous estimates.

ITCI | +34.6% | +4.7B
Intra-Cellular Therapies Inc | Pharmaceuticals
Intra-Cellular Therapies Inc has seen a significant price surge following Johnson & Johnson's announcement of a definitive agreement to acquire the company for $132.00 per share, valuing the total equity at approximately $14.6 billion. This acquisition includes CAPLYTA, the first FDA-approved treatment for bipolar I and II depression, alongside a promising clinical-stage pipeline targeting generalized anxiety disorder and Alzheimer's disease-related psychosis. Social media discussions have confirmed the acquisition details, noting that ITCI's stock price increased substantially after the announcement. Prior to this news, speculation around a potential bid had already driven interest in ITCI, with its market capitalization estimated at around $10 billion. The transaction is expected to close later this year, pending regulatory approvals and stockholder consent.

LULU | +3.3%| +1.6B
Lululemon Athletica Inc | Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Lululemon Athletica Inc has raised its fourth-quarter guidance, now projecting net revenue between 3.560 billion and 3.580 billion, up from a previous estimate of 3.475 billion to 3.510 billion. The earnings per share (EPS) forecast has also been adjusted to a range of 5.81 to 5.85, an increase from 5.56 to 5.64. This revision follows strong demand for athleisure apparel during the holiday season. Additionally, the company's gross margin is expected to improve by approximately 30 basis points compared to the prior year, contrasting with earlier guidance that anticipated a decline. Social media discussions highlight that Lululemon's adjustments have exceeded consensus estimates, with EPS expectations surpassing 5.66 and revenue expectations exceeding 3.52 billion. The stock price increased significantly in premarket trading, reflecting positive sentiment following these announcements.

TSLA | -2.8% | -34.7B
Tesla Inc | Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla Inc is experiencing a decline, moving in tandem with the broader market. This downward trend follows robust U.S. employment data that has shifted expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Concurrently, Tesla has generated significant revenue from the sale of regulatory credits, which constituted a large portion of its net income in recent months. However, this revenue stream faces risks with potential regulatory changes under the incoming administration. In Canada, Tesla has increased prices for its Model Y and Model 3 vehicles. Additionally, delays in Cybertruck deliveries in California are attributed to the company's relief efforts amid wildfires. Notably, Europe's largest pension fund divested its stake in Tesla due to concerns over Elon Musk's compensation package, while Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the stock, highlighting potential upside driven by advancements in AI.

NVDA | -3.1%| -99.2B
NVIDIA Corp | Semiconductors
NVIDIA Corp is experiencing a decline in stock price, moving lower alongside the broader market. This downward movement follows the White House's recent announcement of global export restrictions on artificial intelligence chips, which notably impact NVIDIA while exempting 18 key allies. The restrictions are anticipated to significantly limit chip orders, prompting a 3% drop in NVIDIA's shares during premarket trading. Industry representatives, including the Semiconductor Industry Association, have voiced strong objections to these regulations, citing potential adverse effects on U.S. competitiveness. Additionally, social media discussions highlight concerns from NVIDIA's CEO regarding the impact of these export controls on innovation and U.S. leadership in technology. The company continues to emphasize its growth potential in the self-driving vehicle sector and quantum computing, despite the challenging regulatory environment. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 Index has also declined, reflecting broader market sentiment that may influence NVIDIA's price movement.

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