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Wednesday, March 5

Noteworthy macro moves today: Copper +3.9%. US Dollar Index -0.6%. US 2Y Treasury Bond +0.2%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Walmart Inc (WMT) -1.1%. 

Recent market movements are significantly influenced by President Trump's implementation of new tariffs, including a 25% levy on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. This has led to heightened tensions in global trade relations and concerns about potential retaliatory measures that could further escalate the situation.

In economic data releases today, private sector job growth in the U.S. fell sharply to just 77K jobs added for February—well below expectations—and is seen as indicative of broader hiring hesitancy amid policy uncertainty. Additionally, mortgage applications surged by over 20%, driven largely by declining interest rates which reached their lowest levels since December; this reflects shifting consumer sentiment amidst ongoing economic challenges.

European markets have reacted positively with significant gains following announcements regarding increased fiscal spending plans in Germany aimed at bolstering defense infrastructure. The DAX index rose approximately 3%, while yields on German bonds also spiked due to anticipated higher government borrowing associated with these initiatives—a development contributing to overall bullish sentiment across European equities despite looming uncertainties related to U.S.-imposed tariffs affecting international trade dynamics.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [-2.1%]
Crude oil prices have dropped significantly amid market expectations that OPEC+ will postpone planned production hikes. Commerzbank noted this expectation arises from the current low price of crude and uncertainties surrounding tariffs and sanctions. OPEC+ is projected to increase production by 138,000 barrels per day in April, although this may be revised based on market conditions. Brent crude has experienced a notable daily decline, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has fallen to around 67.50 per barrel. Concerns over decreased demand are exacerbated by ongoing geopolitical tensions and anticipated increases in OPEC+ production. Furthermore, global trade tensions have escalated, with China, Canada, and Mexico announcing retaliatory tariffs on US imports following recent tariff implementations by President Trump, raising concerns regarding reduced oil demand and overall economic growth prospects.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [+2.8%]
Bitcoin's price is nearing the $90,000 mark amid market volatility linked to U.S. tariff discussions with Canada and Mexico under President Trump's administration. The cryptocurrency has faced fluctuations due to these economic policies and ongoing debates regarding crypto reserve compositions that include Ethereum and XRP. A strategic pause on crypto reserves, including Bitcoin, was announced following criticism of the diverse asset mix in recent plans. Social media highlights indicate that El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele has reaffirmed the country's commitment to Bitcoin, with recent purchases adding to its reserves, which now exceed 6,101 BTC. Additionally, Metaplanet acquired 497 BTC for approximately $43.9 million, raising its total holdings to 2,888 BTC. The DXY index's drop below 105 coincides with Bitcoin's rise above $88,000, reflecting a historical pattern where declines in the dollar index correspond with increases in Bitcoin's price.

CRWD | -8.3% | -7.3B
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc | Systems Software
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. reported a net loss of $92.3 million, or $0.37 per share, for the fiscal fourth quarter ended January 31, a stark contrast to the profit of $53.7 million, or $0.22 per share, in the same period last year. The company provided disappointing guidance for the first quarter, projecting adjusted earnings per share between $0.64 and $0.66, significantly below analysts' expectations of $0.95. Fiscal year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was also set lower than anticipated, ranging from $3.33 to $3.45, compared to the expected $4.42. Despite a year-over-year revenue increase of 25% to $1.06 billion, the mixed results and cautious outlook contributed to a notable decline in share price during after-hours trading, with the stock dropping approximately 5-6%. Analysts from KeyBanc subsequently lowered CRWD's price target from $480 to $450, citing concerns regarding the company's guidance despite strong revenue growth.

GM | +6.3% | +3.4B
General Motors Co | Automobile Manufacturers
General Motors Co's stock price has increased notably, influenced by positive remarks from Lutnick. Concurrently, concerns about potential tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada are significant for U.S. automakers, with analysts estimating daily costs of $110 million, totaling approximately $40 billion annually, which could pressure profit margins and supply chains. Social media discussions reveal that President Trump is contemplating tariff relief for USMCA-compliant autos, which includes GM, with an announcement expected later today. Additionally, there are proposals to make interest payments on car loans tax-deductible for domestically manufactured vehicles, aimed at stimulating the U.S. auto industry. Despite the skepticism surrounding the effectiveness of these measures, the ongoing dialogue around tariff relief and potential incentives could have substantial implications for GM's operations in North America.

MRNA | +7.5% | +935.0M
Moderna Inc | Biotechnology
Moderna Inc. has seen a significant price increase following substantial insider purchases. Paul Sagan, a Director, bought 31,620 shares for over $1 million at approximately $31.76 per share on March 3, 2025. CEO Stéphane Bancel also made an open market purchase of 57,493 shares at an average price of $31.53 on the same date. These transactions mark the first direct insider purchases in over five years, prompting a positive market reaction. Social media discussions highlighted Bancel's total investment of around $5 million through Boston Biotech Ventures, raising his ownership by about 0.76%. This surge in insider buying is the most notable in over a year and coincided with a price rise of nearly 7% in recent trading sessions. The stock has remained stable around the $30 mark for several months prior to this activity.

STLA | +8.0% | +2.9B
Stellantis NV | Automobile Manufacturers
Stellantis NV (STLA) has experienced an 8.0% increase in its stock price amid social media discussions highlighting the company's warnings to U.S. dealers regarding the negative impact of tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. These tariffs are reportedly affecting the competitiveness of Stellantis brands, including Chrysler, Jeep, and Dodge. Concurrently, there are conversations about potential tariff relief for USMCA-compliant automobiles, with former President Trump considering measures that could benefit the automotive sector. This sentiment aligns with a notable rise in General Motors Co (GM), which has seen a significant price increase following positive analyst commentary, despite ongoing concerns about the same tariffs impacting supply chains and profit margins.

F | +2.2% | +654.1M
Ford Motor Co | Automobile Manufacturers
Ford Motor Co (F) has experienced a price increase of 2.2% during the pre-market session. Social media discussions highlight that Trump administration officials are considering tariff relief for automobiles and energy imports compliant with the USMCA, which could affect Ford alongside General Motors (GM) and Stellantis. Additionally, a proposal to make interest payments on car loans tax-deductible for vehicles manufactured in America was mentioned, potentially benefiting Ford and GM. However, skepticism exists regarding the proposal's effectiveness, with critiques suggesting that over 90% of people may not benefit from it. Meanwhile, GM's stock rose significantly due to positive analyst comments, which may also influence Ford's stock given their historical correlation.

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