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Wednesday, February 26

Noteworthy macro moves today: Copper -1.4%. Ethereum -2.4%. DAX 30 Index (Germany) +1.7%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) +2.7%. Broadcom Inc (AVGO) +2.5%. 

Recent economic data releases have highlighted significant challenges in major global economies. In Germany, the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator unexpectedly fell to -24.7 for March 2025 from a revised -22.6 previously, reflecting persistent cost pressures and political uncertainty that are dampening consumer sentiment ahead of potential factory closures. Meanwhile, U.S mortgage applications continued their decline by 1.2% as high housing prices deterred buyers despite lower interest rates.

In financial markets, European equities experienced notable gains with indices like the DAX rising approximately 1.75%, driven partly by optimism surrounding defense spending amid ongoing geopolitical tensions related to Ukraine's mineral deal with the U.S., which is seen as bolstering investor confidence across Europe even amidst weak German consumer morale reports.

The currency market has also reacted strongly; expectations of further rate cuts from central banks due to soft economic indicators have led to increased pressure on the US Dollar Index (DXY), hovering near yearly lows around 106 after recent tariff announcements raised inflation concerns among investors regarding future monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) [+1.7%]
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has seen a price increase of 1.7% since Tuesday. Recent announcements regarding an investigation into copper imports by President Trump have introduced volatility in the semiconductor sector, affecting companies within SMH. Ongoing trade tensions and potential chip export restrictions to China are contributing to broader weakness in semiconductor stocks. Social media sentiment reflects a bearish outlook ahead of NVIDIA's earnings announcement, with discussions highlighting a significant implied move for NVIDIA and a cautious sentiment towards the sector overall. Notably, NVIDIA's stock has appreciated considerably over the past year, while its competitive position may be challenged by the resumption of operations at Chinese AI startup DeepSeek. The top contributors to SMH's performance include NVIDIA, Broadcom, Micron Technology, Lam Research, and Applied Materials.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [-0.8%]
Bitcoin's price has fallen to a three-month low of 86,000 amid significant volatility in the cryptocurrency sector. This decline is influenced by Standard Chartered's prediction of further declines and sell-offs linked to meme coin activity related to Solana. Notably, Bitcoin hit an intraday low of 86,008.23 before recovering slightly into the early 88,000s during today's session. Social media activity reveals mixed sentiments; while some users express optimism about reaching a bottom, others highlight a poor daily close and a breakdown from previous highs. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has dropped below 25, currently at 21, reflecting extreme fear among investors. Additionally, over 320 million was liquidated on perpetual futures exchanges, marking the highest level in over two years. Exchange inflows peaked during this panic, with short-term holders sending approximately 43,600 BTC to exchanges at a loss. Record outflows from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have also been noted, totaling nearly 938 million.

WDAY | +10.5% | +7.9B
Workday Inc | Application Software
Workday Inc. reported its fourth-quarter results, revealing adjusted earnings per share of 1.92, exceeding the consensus estimate of 1.78. Revenue reached 2.21 billion, surpassing the expected 2.18 billion and marking a 15% year-over-year increase. Subscription revenues were 2.04 billion, reflecting a 15.9% rise compared to the previous year. The company anticipates first-quarter subscription revenue of 2.05 billion, indicating a growth of 13%, and projects fiscal year 2026 subscription revenue to be 8.8 billion, signifying a growth of 14%. Analysts have responded positively, raising their price targets significantly, with Goldman Sachs increasing its target to 345 from 310. The stock experienced a notable increase following the earnings announcement, with a reported rise of approximately 10% shortly after the results were released. Social media discussions have highlighted these strong earnings and revenue figures, despite concerns regarding a significant drop in net income.

NVDA | +2.6% | +82.2B
NVIDIA Corp | Semiconductors
NVIDIA Corp is experiencing a price increase, aligning with a broader market rally. European equity markets are rebounding, with major indices showing significant daily gains. Anticipation is building ahead of NVIDIA's Q4 FY25 earnings report today, following a substantial stock performance over the past year. Analysts expect an adjusted earnings per share of $0.85 and revenues of approximately $38.1 billion, reflecting notable year-over-year growth. Concurrently, the Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has resumed operations, introducing discounted pricing for developers, which may influence competitive dynamics. Social media discussions indicate mixed sentiment regarding NVIDIA's upcoming earnings, with concerns about insider selling and the potential impact of U.S.-China trade relations on the semiconductor industry. The consensus price target for NVIDIA reflects a potential upside from current levels, underscoring the market's keen interest in the company's financial results.

LOW | +3.5% | +5.0B
Lowe's Companies Inc | Home Improvement Retail
Lowe's Companies Inc reported its fourth-quarter results, revealing an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 1.93, surpassing the consensus estimate of 1.84. Revenue for the quarter reached 18.55 billion, exceeding expectations of 18.29 billion. Comparable sales increased by 0.2%, driven by growth in professional and online segments, along with strong holiday sales and hurricane rebuilding efforts. The company provided guidance for fiscal year 2025, projecting EPS between 12.15 and 12.40, with anticipated total revenue of 83.5 billion to 84.5 billion. Additionally, Lowe's plans capital expenditures of approximately 2.5 billion and expects an operating margin of 12.3% to 12.4%. Social media discussions highlighted the company's subdued sales growth outlook due to a sluggish recovery in the home improvement sector, despite ongoing consumer investment in repair and remodeling projects.

INTU | +8.3% | +13.9B
Intuit Inc | Application Software
Intuit Inc. reported robust fiscal Q2 results, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 3.32, exceeding estimates of 2.58 by a significant margin. This represents a 26% increase from the previous year's EPS of 2.63. Revenue reached 4.00 billion, surpassing the expected 3.83 billion and reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase from 3.39 billion. The company reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 guidance, projecting EPS between 19.16 and 19.36, and revenue ranging from 18.16 billion to 18.35 billion. Social media discussions highlighted the earnings report, noting the revenue achievement and EPS results, while also mentioning Morgan Stanley's upgrade of Intuit to overweight from equal weight, raising the price target to 730, citing small business strength and margin upside as key factors. Following these developments, shares increased approximately 8% in pre-market trading.

AXON | +13.4% | +5.7B
Axon Enterprise Inc | Aerospace & Defense
Axon Enterprise Inc reported robust Q4 results, with an adjusted EPS of 2.08, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of 1.40. Revenue for the quarter reached 575 million, surpassing expectations of 566 million and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 33%. The company also provided fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance of 2.55 billion to 2.65 billion, above the consensus estimate of 2.56 billion. The TASER segment contributed net sales of 221 million, a 37% increase from the previous year. Following these announcements, Axon's shares saw a notable rise in after-hours trading, with reports indicating an approximate increase of 12% after the earnings report. Social media discussions highlighted Axon's strong performance metrics, including a fiscal year net income of 377 million against total revenue of 2.1 billion, exceeding the estimated 2.08 billion.

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