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Tuesday, November 19

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today include: US 10Y Treasury Bond +0.4%. Ethereum -3.1%. Gold +0.8%. Some of the largest moves among US mega-cap stocks include: Walmart Inc (WMT) +2.9%. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) -1.0%.

Geopolitical tensions are significantly impacting market sentiment, particularly following recent escalations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin's updated nuclear doctrine allows for potential nuclear responses to perceived threats from non-nuclear states, which has heightened risk aversion among investors and led to declines across major equity indices in Europe and the U.S., with futures indicating a cautious opening on Wall Street.

In economic data releases today, Canada reported an annual inflation rate increase to 2% for October, surpassing expectations of 1.9%. This rise is attributed mainly to fluctuations in gasoline prices but remains within the Bank of Canada's target range. Meanwhile, housing starts in the United States fell by 3.1%, marking their lowest level since July as single-family home construction declined sharply.

Market participants are also closely monitoring developments related to Donald Trump's incoming administration and its implications for financial markets—particularly regarding tariffs that could affect international trade dynamics and corporate earnings outlooks. The focus will be on upcoming appointments such as Treasury Secretary candidates who may further influence these policies amidst ongoing discussions about interest rates from central banks like the Federal Reserve and Bank of England.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) [+1.0%]
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) recorded significant outflows of $3.2 billion last week, coinciding with a broader trend of net outflows totaling $1.4 billion across U.S. fixed income ETFs. The 10-year Treasury bond yield has reached its highest level in several months, exerting pressure on bond prices. Despite this, TLT has attracted over $10 billion in inflows year-to-date, although it has dropped significantly on a total return basis for the year. A recent social media post suggested a favorable time to invest in Treasury bonds, referencing the peak of the 10-year yield. Additionally, geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation between Russia and Ukraine, have heightened risk aversion in global markets, typically leading investors towards safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries. The US 5Y Treasury Bond has also moved up, reflecting broader market sentiment and potentially influencing TLT's recent performance.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) [-0.4%]
U.S. futures have declined amid rising geopolitical tensions following Russian President Vladimir Putin's endorsement of a revised nuclear doctrine. This coincides with reports of Ukraine's first ATACMS missile attack inside Russia, fostering a cautious atmosphere in global markets. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has shown weakness, reflecting these broader market concerns, having dropped significantly over the past five days. Notably, the S&P 500 Index itself has declined during Tuesday's market hours. Meanwhile, bullish projections for the S&P 500 from analysts at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs suggest potential increases by the end of 2025, driven by anticipated economic growth and robust corporate earnings. However, social media discussions reveal mixed sentiments regarding SPY's future performance, highlighting significant stock sales by executives and concerns about market reactions to recent developments.

SMCI | +25.7% | +406.0M
Super Micro Computer Inc | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Super Micro Computer Inc. has appointed BDO USA as its independent auditor and submitted a compliance plan to Nasdaq to avoid delisting. This announcement was made late on November 18, 2024. The company anticipates completing its annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2024, and its quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, within the allowed timeframe. Following this news, shares surged in premarket trading, reflecting heightened activity. Social media discussions have noted the stock's significant rise after the announcement, with many users expressing optimism regarding the company's compliance efforts. There are concerns about BDO's limited experience with S&P 500 companies, alongside references to past accounting issues and the resignation of its previous auditor, Ernst & Young. Despite these challenges, the recent developments have sparked renewed interest in Super Micro Computer Inc.

WMT | +3.1% | +21.5B
Walmart Inc | Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Walmart Inc. reported strong third-quarter results, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 0.58, surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.53. Revenue reached 169.59 billion, exceeding expectations of 167.72 billion and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.5%. U.S. same-store sales rose by 5.5%, outpacing the expected 3.8%. The company raised its fiscal 2025 guidance for adjusted EPS to a range of 2.42 to 2.47, up from the previous forecast of 2.35 to 2.43. Net sales growth expectations were also increased to between 4.8% and 5.1%, compared to prior estimates of 3.75% to 4.75%. In premarket trading, shares rose approximately 4% following these announcements, buoyed by positive performance in e-commerce and general merchandise sales outside the grocery sector.

INCY | -10.8%| -1.7B
Incyte Corp | Biotechnology
Incyte Corp has announced a significant setback in its clinical development programs. The company will pause enrollment in the ongoing Phase 2 study of MRGPRX2 (INCB000262) in chronic spontaneous urticaria due to preclinical toxicology findings. This decision has been communicated to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, with the company seeking guidance on future steps. Furthermore, data from the Phase 2 study evaluating MRGPRX4 (INCB000547) in cholestatic pruritus does not support further development. Following these announcements, Incyte shares dropped significantly, reflecting concerns regarding the halted trials and negative study results.

LOW | -1.0%| -1.5B
Lowe's Companies Inc | Home Improvement Retail
Lowe's Companies Inc. reported third-quarter results, revealing adjusted earnings per share of 2.89, exceeding consensus estimates of 2.81. Revenue reached 20.2 billion, surpassing the expected 19.93 billion. Nonetheless, comparable sales fell by 1.1%, primarily due to weaker demand for larger-ticket DIY items, despite a boost from storm-related sales and growth in professional and online segments. The company raised its fiscal year 2024 earnings per share guidance to a range of 11.80 to 11.90 and increased its revenue outlook to between 83 billion and 83.5 billion. Additionally, Lowe's anticipates a full-year comparable sales decline of 3% to 3.5%, which is an improvement from previous projections. In premarket trading, shares were down approximately 1.0%, reflecting market reactions to the mixed earnings report.

DJT | -7.3% | -393.1M
Digital World Acquisition Corp
Digital World Acquisition Corp (DJT) is experiencing notable price movement amid developments related to Trump Media & Technology Group. Reports indicate that Trump Media is in advanced discussions to acquire the cryptocurrency trading platform Bakkt in an all-stock deal, which has drawn significant market attention. Following an initial surge in DJT's stock, it subsequently dropped ahead of the market opening. The volatility reflects uncertainty regarding the implications of this potential acquisition and Trump's broader ambitions in the cryptocurrency sector. Bakkt's stock also saw a substantial increase the previous day, highlighting heightened activity in the cryptocurrency market linked to these developments. Social media discussions have further amplified interest, with users speculating on the positive impact of this acquisition on DJT's positioning within the cryptocurrency space. Additionally, there are mentions of potential personnel appointments involving Trump and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, signaling a strategic shift for Trump Media.

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