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Tuesday, March 11

Noteworthy macro moves today: Bitcoin +3.3%. USD/CNH -0.4%. Gold +0.9%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Walmart Inc (WMT) -1.0%. 

Growing concerns over a potential economic downturn in the U.S. have led to significant selloffs across major equity indices, with notable declines observed on Monday and early Tuesday trading sessions. President Trump's recent comments about an ongoing "period of transition" related to his tariff policies have heightened fears that these measures could negatively impact growth prospects, contributing further to market volatility.

In Japan, mixed economic data has emerged as machine tool orders rose by 3.5% year-on-year for February but fell short of expectations while GDP growth was slightly revised downwards to 0.6%. Additionally, household spending showed signs of slowing despite previous gains; this combination reflects underlying weaknesses within the Japanese economy amid global uncertainties.

Meanwhile, China's vehicle sales rebounded sharply by 34.4% year-on-year in February following prior declines attributed largely to seasonal factors from last year's Lunar New Year holiday timing issues. This surge is seen against a backdrop where foreign investments are being encouraged through government initiatives aimed at fostering technological innovation and high-quality development amidst broader geopolitical tensions affecting trade dynamics globally.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) [+0.8%]
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has shown a notable premarket gain, outperforming the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which rose by 0.45%, the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) at 0.65%, and the Dow Jones ETF (DIA) with an increase of 0.38%. This performance is occurring against a backdrop of significant declines in global equity markets, with the Russell 2000 Index itself up approximately 0.85%. Social media discussions reflect mixed sentiment, with users recalling a recent drop of nearly 3% for IWM, while others express skepticism about the sustainability of the current uptick. Key contributors to IWM's performance include stocks like MSTR and SMCI, which have seen positive returns. Additionally, the EUR/USD currency pair has increased by 0.59%, suggesting interconnected market dynamics during this trading session.

Gold (XAU/USD) [+0.8%]
Gold prices have risen today, surpassing 2,900 per ounce, as the US Dollar weakened. This decline in the Dollar follows the German coalition's approval of increased defense spending, which has bolstered confidence in the Euro. Concurrently, ongoing recession risks associated with President Trump's tariff policies are driving market sentiment toward safe-haven assets like gold. Concerns regarding potential economic slowdowns due to these tariffs continue to influence this favorable market environment for gold investments.

CIEN | +9.0% | +933.3M
Ciena Corp | Communications Equipment
Ciena Corp reported its fiscal first quarter 2025 financial results, revealing adjusted earnings per share of 0.64, exceeding analyst estimates of 0.42. Revenue reached 1.07 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate of 1.05 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.3%. The Networking Platforms segment generated 821.2 million in revenue, surpassing the forecast of 800 million, while Converged Packet Optical revenue rose 4.6% to 728 million, exceeding expectations of 723.1 million. Adjusted gross margin was reported at 44.7%, higher than the anticipated 42.1%. Following the release of these results, Ciena shares experienced a notable price increase in trading.

DAL | -4.6% | -1.4B
Delta Air Lines Inc | Passenger Airlines
Delta Air Lines has announced a significant reduction in its first-quarter guidance, projecting earnings per share of 0.30 to 0.50, down from a previous estimate of 0.70 to 1.00. Revenue growth expectations have also been revised lower, now anticipated at 3% to 4%, compared to an earlier forecast of 7% to 9%. The airline attributed these adjustments to declining consumer and corporate confidence amid macroeconomic uncertainty, which has softened domestic demand. This announcement coincided with a premarket decline of over 10% in Delta's stock price, which later dropped significantly in after-hours trading, reflecting broader concerns regarding consumer spending trends and the potential impact on the travel industry. Additionally, Delta plans to slow capacity growth for the upcoming spring and summer seasons, further underscoring its cautious outlook.

LUV | +10.5% | +2.0B
Southwest Airlines Co | Passenger Airlines
Southwest Airlines has announced several strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing customer loyalty and operational efficiency. Effective May 28, 2025, the airline will introduce a new basic fare structure and variable redemption rates for its Rapid Rewards loyalty program. The airline is also accelerating its $2.5 billion share buyback program. Despite these initiatives, the airline has revised its Q1 revenue per available seat mile growth outlook downwards, citing softness in bookings and demand trends. Additionally, Southwest will begin charging for checked baggage for the first time, starting with bookings made on or after May 28. This change excludes Rapid Rewards A-List Preferred Members, A-List Members, and travelers on select business class tickets. Concurrently, shares of Southwest Airlines were reported to be trading higher amid these announcements.

DKS | -4.9% | -797.0M
DICK'S Sporting Goods Inc | Other Specialty Retail
DICK'S Sporting Goods Inc reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of 3.62, a decrease from 3.85 the previous year. Revenue for the quarter reached 3.89 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of 3.78 billion. Comparable sales increased by 6.4%, marking the largest sales quarter in the company's history. Despite these results, the company issued guidance for fiscal year 2025 that fell below analysts' expectations, projecting earnings per share between 13.80 and 14.40, while analysts had anticipated 14.84. Following these announcements, shares dropped approximately 5.4% in early trading. The Board also authorized a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend and a new five-year share repurchase program of up to 3 billion. Additionally, Kohl's Corp experienced a significant decline following its own disappointing results, potentially impacting sentiment in the retail sector, including DICK'S Sporting Goods.

Kohls Corp (KSS) [-15.4%, -174.4M]
Broadline Retail
Kohl's Corp reported its fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results, revealing an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.95, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.73, while revenue matched estimates at $5.18 billion. Nonetheless, the company projects a significant decline in key metrics for fiscal 2025, forecasting net sales to decrease by 5% to 7% and comparable sales to drop by 4% to 6%. The anticipated diluted EPS ranges from $0.10 to $0.60, falling short of analysts' expectations of $1.32. Additionally, Kohl's experienced a year-over-year decline in net sales of 9.4% for Q4. In light of these developments, the company has reduced its dividend from $0.50 to $0.125 per share. Following the earnings announcement, shares dropped sharply in premarket trading by over 15%.

ILMN | +2.5% | +347.7M
Illumina Inc | Life Sciences Tools & Services
Illumina Inc has experienced a price increase, moving higher alongside the broader market. The company announced a reduction of approximately $100 million in costs for fiscal 2025 due to a ban on the import of its gene-sequencing machines by China, which has led to a lowered adjusted earnings guidance for 2025 to $4.50 per share, aligning with the low end of its previous range. CEO Jacob Thaysen emphasized a commitment to achieving high-single-digit revenue growth by 2027 and expanding margins despite the challenges from the China sales ban. Social media discussions have highlighted concerns regarding Illumina's financial outlook following these announcements. Additionally, the Russell 2000 Index has increased, reflecting broader market movements that may be influencing Illumina's recent price action.

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