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Monday, November 4

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today include: Oil (WTI) +2.8%. USD/CNH -0.5%. US Dollar Index -0.5%. Some of the largest moves among US mega-cap stocks include: Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) -1.6%. Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) +0.8%. 

The U.S. presidential election is the primary focus of market participants, with polls indicating a tightening race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. This uncertainty has led to notable movements in financial markets, particularly a decline in the U.S. dollar as support for Harris increased over the weekend; this shift contributed to lower Treasury yields.

Recent economic data releases have shown mixed results from major European economies ahead of significant central bank meetings later this week. The HCOB Manufacturing PMIs across Germany (43), France (44.5), Italy (46.9), and Spain indicate ongoing contractions but suggest some easing rates of decline compared to previous months, reflecting persistent challenges within these sectors amid geopolitical tensions.

Additionally, oil prices surged following OPEC's decision to delay an increase in production by one month amidst rising global demand concerns linked closely with upcoming political events like elections that could significantly influence energy policies worldwide.

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) [-0.5%]
The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) has experienced a decline of 0.5%. This movement coincides with a broader drop in the U.S. dollar index, which fell significantly due to political developments surrounding the upcoming presidential election. Polls indicating rising support for Kamala Harris have led to selling pressure on the dollar. Concurrently, uncertainty regarding potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and mixed performance in global markets, including a rebound in U.S. equities, has contributed to caution among investors. Speculators have increased their bullish positions on the dollar, anticipating that the election may influence demand for safe-haven assets. Overall, the interconnectedness of currency pairs is evident, as reflected in the declining USD/CNH and its impact on market sentiment affecting the dollar's performance.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [+2.8%]
The United States Oil Fund LP (USO) has seen a price increase of 2.8% since Friday, coinciding with significant developments in the oil market. OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned output increase by one month, extending production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day through December. This decision aims to stabilize oil prices amid concerns over fluctuating demand, particularly from China and Europe. Additionally, U.S. inventory data revealed a decrease of 515,000 barrels in crude inventories and a drop of 2.7 million barrels in gasoline stocks, contrary to expectations of an increase. Strong crude processing at 16 million barrels per day and robust gasoline demand, potentially influenced by supply disruptions from Hurricane Milton, contributed to this decline. Brent crude prices have risen above $74 per barrel, reflecting these dynamics.

MAR | -2.1% | -1.5B
Marriott International Inc | Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Marriott International Inc reported its Q3 2024 earnings today, revealing adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 2.26, which fell short of the consensus estimate of 2.31. Revenue for the quarter was reported at 6.26 billion, slightly below expectations of 6.27 billion. The company has revised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of 9.19 to 9.27, down from previous estimates of 9.23 to 9.40, while consensus remains at 9.36. Additionally, Marriott anticipates Q4 adjusted EPS between 2.31 and 2.39, again below the consensus estimate of 2.43. Following these announcements, shares declined in premarket trading, reflecting concerns over weaker-than-expected financial performance and revised profit outlooks. The Russell 2000 Index has shown minimal movement, which may correlate with the decline in Marriott's stock price.

FOX | +6.6% | +1.3B
Fox Corp | Broadcasting
Fox Corporation reported its first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with revenue reaching $3.56 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.37 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) stood at $1.45, exceeding expectations by over 30%. This performance reflects an 11% revenue increase compared to the same quarter last year, fueled by robust advertising revenue from its streaming service and political advertising in anticipation of the U.S. presidential election. Net income rose significantly to $832 million, up from $415 million in the prior year quarter. Executive Chair Lachlan Murdoch highlighted strong audience growth across various segments, including FOX News and Tubi. The company released these results at 8:00 AM NY time, further contributing to its notable price movement, which has increased by 6.6% since Friday.

NVDA | +1.9%| +63.7B
NVIDIA Corp | Semiconductors
NVIDIA Corp will replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a significant development that has already led to increased trading activity in NVIDIA shares. Following this announcement, NVIDIA's CEO urged SK Hynix to expedite the production of HBM4 chips to meet soaring demand for high-capacity memory crucial for AI applications. Social media discussions indicate that NVIDIA is in talks to invest in Elon Musk's xAI startup, potentially aligning with emerging AI technologies. Additionally, NVIDIA is redirecting orders from Supermicro to other suppliers to stabilize its AI supply chain amid Supermicro's financial issues. Reports also highlight that NVIDIA has experienced substantial stock growth, with claims of an almost 9,000% increase since 2016.

LLY | -1.6%| -12.0B
Eli Lilly and Co | Pharmaceuticals
Eli Lilly and Co has seen a decline of 1.6% in pre-market trading, coinciding with intensified competition in the obesity drug market. Novo Nordisk's advancement of its hybrid drug, CagriSema, poses a challenge, despite Lilly's Zepbound (Mounjaro) currently showing better weight-loss results than Novo's Wegovy. Additionally, Viking Therapeutics has reported promising data for its obesity drug VK2735, which demonstrated substantial weight loss in trials. Social media discussions reflect concerns over Eli Lilly's downward guidance, with speculation about significant price levels around 720. Analysts have noted that this guidance is unfavorable given the stock's current high levels. Meanwhile, Lilly announced it will present data from its Phase 3 trial of imlunestrant at the upcoming San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium in December, which may influence future sentiment regarding the company.

DJT | -2.7% | -142.7M
Digital World Acquisition Corp
Digital World Acquisition Corp's stock is under pressure, experiencing a notable decline in premarket trading. This follows significant volatility in Trump Media's stock, exacerbated by a surprise poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading in Iowa. Social media discussions highlight DJT's sharp price movements, with a drop of 22% on Wednesday, and further declines of 12% and 14% on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Conversations also mention a straddle expiring on November 8, priced at $15.77, reflecting heightened implied volatility. Additionally, rumors regarding Elon Musk's potential acquisition of Trump Media have surfaced, alongside concerns about DJT's performance linked to unfavorable betting markets for Trump's electoral chances. These factors collectively depict a challenging environment for Digital World Acquisition Corp as the election approaches.

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