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Friday, May 16

Noteworthy macro moves today: Gold -1.8%. Copper -1.7%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) +3.3%. Alphabet Inc (GOOG) +2.3%.  

Recent economic data releases from the U.S. indicate mixed signals, with April housing starts rising by 1.6% to an annualized rate of 1.361 million, but building permits falling more than expected by 4.7%. Additionally, import prices unexpectedly increased by 0.1%, contrasting forecasts for a decline and suggesting potential inflationary pressures that may influence Federal Reserve policy.

In Europe, easing trade tensions following recent agreements between the U.S., China, and discussions within the EU have positively impacted market sentiment; European stocks are trading higher as investors assess these developments alongside anticipated interest rate movements from central banks like the ECB, which is signaling dovish tendencies amid ongoing concerns about inflation risks.

Meanwhile in Japan, GDP contracted at an annualized rate of -0.2% in Q1—worse than expectations—and has raised concerns regarding future growth amidst persistent uncertainties related to U.S.-imposed tariffs affecting consumption patterns domestically while also influencing monetary policy considerations moving forward.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) [+2.5%]
Ethereum (ETH/USD) has seen an increase since Thursday. The recent agreement between the US and China to lower tariffs has improved global market sentiment, enhancing risk appetite. Concurrently, a decline in US producer prices and softer economic data suggest potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year, which may positively influence liquidity conditions for assets like Ethereum. Social media discussions have highlighted a significant CME Gap for ETH between 2900 and 3100, indicating possible price implications. Additionally, Ethereum co-founder Anthony Di Iorio remarked at Consensus 2025 that Ethereum aims to serve as an alternative to Bitcoin, rather than a competitor. Meanwhile, posts noted that ETH is targeting 2700, correlating with BTCS Inc.'s $57.8 million strategy, while Ethereum's price consolidates above 2500.

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) [+0.4%]
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has seen a daily return increase of 0.25%. This uptick coincides with a recent agreement between the U.S. and China to lower tariffs for 90 days, which has positively influenced global market sentiment and may enhance energy demand as trade tensions ease. Additionally, optimism surrounding potential increases in Iranian oil output due to ongoing nuclear deal negotiations could affect supply dynamics in the energy sector. Among the ETF's holdings, ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Phillips 66 (PSX), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) have contributed positively to performance. Notably, Berkshire Hathaway has significantly increased its stake in Occidental Petroleum by over 763,000 shares, now totaling approximately 264.9 million shares, reflecting confidence in the company’s strategic direction and financial performance.

AMAT | -4.6% | -6.4B
Applied Materials Inc | Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Applied Materials Inc reported its second-quarter fiscal 2025 results, revealing revenues of $7.1 billion, slightly below analyst expectations of $7.13 billion. The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $2.39, exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.31. The company provided guidance for third-quarter revenue between $6.7 billion and $7.7 billion, with an EPS forecast of $2.15 to $2.55, which diverges from the FactSet consensus of $2.31 per share on revenue of $7.2 billion. Following the earnings announcement, shares experienced a decline of approximately 4% in after-hours trading. Social media discussions highlighted a year-over-year revenue growth of 7%, but concerns were raised regarding a widening revenue outlook and a significant decline in sales from China due to ongoing trade restrictions, contributing to a further drop of around 5% in pre-market trading.

CHTR | +4.3% | +2.7B
Charter Communications Inc | Cable & Satellite
Charter Communications Inc has announced a definitive agreement to merge with Cox Communications in a transaction valued at approximately $34.5 billion. This merger will enable Charter to acquire Cox's commercial fiber and managed IT businesses while Cox Enterprises will contribute its residential cable business. The combined entity will maintain its headquarters in Stamford, Connecticut. Following the merger, Cox Enterprises is expected to hold about 23% ownership, with the merged company assuming approximately $12 billion in Cox's outstanding debt. Concurrently, Charter is reportedly in advanced discussions regarding a cash-and-stock deal that values Cox at over $30 billion, including debt, with the Cox family anticipated to retain around 20% ownership of the combined company. Social media discussions have noted a price increase for Charter, reflecting the market's response to these developments.

UNH | +3.3% | +8.6B
UnitedHealth Group Inc | Managed Health Care
UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) is experiencing a notable price increase, coinciding with significant upward movement in the Managed Health Care sector. Despite this rise, UNH has been highlighted on social media as one of the worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 for 2025, following a substantial drop in share prices earlier this year due to disappointing earnings and a guidance cut. Recent discussions indicate that UNH has faced a considerable sell-off, with reports of congressional members divesting their shares and ongoing investigations into potential Medicare fraud by the Department of Justice. Trading volume for UNH has surged, with recent exchanges significantly exceeding average levels. Overall sentiment remains mixed, with analysts expressing bearish outlooks and caution regarding the stock's future performance.

GOOGL | +2.2% | +44.8B
Alphabet Inc | Interactive Media & Services
Alphabet Inc has experienced a price increase, coinciding with significant movements in the Interactive Media & Services sub-sector. Notably, Pershing Square has raised its stake in Alphabet, increasing holdings from approximately 3.986 million shares to about 4.437 million shares, as per a recent 13F filing. Additionally, Alphabet's Google One subscription service has reached 150 million subscribers, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence. Social media highlights from the MoffettNathanson 2025 Media, Internet & Communications Conference indicate that Alphabet is focusing on disciplined financial management, with ongoing investments in AI, living-room initiatives, Shorts, and podcasts. Furthermore, discussions on social media have noted changes to YouTube's advertising strategy and CEO Sundar Pichai's emphasis on AI as a core focus for the company amid competitive pressures.

EL | +3.2% | +743.4M
Estee Lauder Companies Inc | Personal Care Products
Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management has established a long position in Estee Lauder Companies Inc, contributing to a notable increase in the stock price. Reports indicate that shares have risen significantly following this investment. Additionally, U.S. stock index futures have experienced an uptick due to a U.S.-China tariff truce and soft inflation data. This positive market backdrop coincided with Burry's strategic shift, as social media discussions highlight his decision to liquidate all other positions in favor of Estee Lauder, where he reportedly holds around 200,000 shares. The timing and nature of these conversations underscore the attention surrounding Burry's investment move.

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