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Friday, August 29

Noteworthy macro moves today: Bitcoin -1.7%. Ethereum -2.3%. 

Recent economic data releases from the United States indicate a mixed outlook, with personal spending rising by 0.5% in July and aligning with expectations. Core PCE prices increased by 0.3%, also meeting forecasts but reflecting persistent inflationary pressures at an annual rate of 2.9%. Additionally, the trade deficit widened significantly to $103.6 billion due to higher imports driven by inventory front-loading ahead of potential tariffs.

In Europe, concerns over fiscal policies are impacting market sentiment as reports suggest possible windfall taxes on banks could be implemented in the UK amid ongoing discussions about government finances and monetary policy direction from central banks like the Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB's recent minutes highlighted downside risks related to growth prospects influenced heavily by US tariff impacts.

Market reactions have been notable; U.S stock indices reached record highs following strong GDP growth figures for Q2 at 3.3%. However, futures point towards a weaker start today amidst anticipation for key inflation data that may influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions next month—currently expected is a dovish stance leading up to September’s meetings where cuts might occur based on upcoming labor market indicators.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) [-1.0%]
Marvell Technology's stock dropped significantly after it missed revenue forecasts, despite reporting record earnings driven by AI demand. This decline likely contributed to the VanEck Semiconductor ETF's current daily return of approximately -1.15%. Marvell's Q2 earnings met analyst expectations for adjusted EPS but fell short on revenue, with guidance for Q3 also below estimates, leading to an 8% drop in after-hours trading. The company's strategic focus on data center and AI sectors, which now account for a substantial portion of its revenue, did not alleviate concerns about flat sequential performance expected in data center revenue for Q3. Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 Index's decline may reflect broader market sentiment impacting the semiconductor sector. Key holdings within the ETF, including Nvidia and Lam Research, also experienced notable declines, further influencing the ETF's performance.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [-1.9%]
Bitcoin has seen a notable decline, dropping below 110,000, which reflects a broader market trend as over 250 million was liquidated from cryptocurrency markets within a day. Social media highlights include Metaplanet's plan to raise 880 million, with 837 million earmarked for Bitcoin acquisitions. Bitcoin ETFs are now driving approximately 67% of Binance's BTC spot trading volume, which ranges between 5 billion and 10 billion daily. Recent discussions suggest that 17 billion in shorts could be liquidated if Bitcoin reaches 125,000, while BlackRock has reportedly purchased 568 BTC valued at around 63.3 million. The price drop follows a peak of 124,500, raising concerns about resistance levels as traders seek to exit at breakeven prices. Ethereum has also declined significantly, which may correlate with Bitcoin's current performance.

AFRM | +16.0% | +4.6B
Affirm Holdings Inc | Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Affirm Holdings Inc. reported strong fiscal Q4 results, with revenue reaching 876.42 million, a 33% year-over-year increase, surpassing the consensus estimate of 837 million. The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of 0.20, compared to a loss of 0.14 in the previous year, exceeding expectations. Gross merchandise volume (GMV) rose 43% to 10.4 billion, driven by significant uptake of 0% APR loans. The number of active consumers increased by 24% to 23 million. Affirm guided for Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue between 855 million and 885 million, above analysts' expectations, and anticipates FY 2026 GMV to exceed 46 billion. Following the earnings report, Affirm's stock surged approximately 17.3%, reflecting positive sentiment in the market.

MRVL | -14.3% | -123.3B
Marvell Technology Inc | Semiconductors
Marvell Technology Inc. reported its Q2 results, showing adjusted earnings of $0.67 per share, slightly exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.66. Revenue reached $2.006 billion, just below the forecast of $2.009 billion. For Q3, the company anticipates adjusted earnings between $0.69 and $0.79 per share and revenue guidance of $1.957 billion to $2.163 billion, lower than the expected $2.105 billion. Analysts reacted by lowering price targets, with Jefferies cutting theirs from $90 to $80, RBLT from $124 to $95, and UBS from $110 to $95. Following the earnings announcement, Marvell's shares dropped significantly after hours, reflecting market concerns regarding the company's outlook despite a year-over-year revenue growth of 58%, primarily driven by its data center segment.

DELL | -6.9% | -6.1B
Dell Technologies Inc | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Dell Technologies Inc. reported second-quarter results on August 28, 2025, with adjusted earnings per share of 2.32, surpassing the consensus estimate of 2.30, and revenues of 29.78 billion, exceeding expectations of 29.17 billion. Despite this strong performance, the company guided a third-quarter adjusted EPS of 2.45, below the consensus estimate of 2.55. The third-quarter revenue outlook of 26.5 billion to 27.5 billion was above the consensus of 26.05 billion. Following these announcements, shares dropped approximately 6% in pre-market trading. Discussions on social media highlighted the company's strong earnings and an optimistic outlook for AI server shipments, which are expected to reach 20 billion for the fiscal year, up from prior estimates of above 15 billion. Marvell Technology Inc. experienced a significant decline following its Q2 earnings report, which may also influence sentiment toward Dell due to historical correlations between the two companies.

ADSK | +11.4% | +7.8B
Autodesk Inc | Application Software
Autodesk Inc. reported its second-quarter results, revealing net revenue of $1.76 billion, an increase from $1.51 billion the previous year, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.62, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.45. The company raised its fiscal year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $9.80 to $9.98, up from the previous estimate of $9.50 to $9.73, and increased its sales outlook for the same period from $6.92 billion-$7.00 billion to $7.03 billion-$7.08 billion. Additionally, Autodesk anticipates third-quarter revenue between $1.80 billion and $1.81 billion, with adjusted EPS projected at $2.48 to $2.51, both above analyst estimates. Following these announcements, Autodesk shares rose significantly, with a noted increase of approximately 11% in after-hours trading yesterday. Social media discussions highlighted strong Q2 results and positive sentiment surrounding the company's guidance adjustments.

CELH | +6.7% | +998.8M
Celsius Holdings Inc | Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Celsius Holdings Inc has experienced a significant price increase following news of PepsiCo's $585 million investment to acquire newly issued convertible preferred stock, raising its ownership stake to approximately 11%. Concurrently, Celsius is set to acquire the Rockstar Energy brand in the U.S. and Canada from PepsiCo, marking an expansion of their strategic partnership. As part of this agreement, Celsius's Alani Nu brand will transition into PepsiCo's distribution system in North America. This collaboration positions Celsius as the strategic energy drink leader for PepsiCo in the U.S., managing the Celsius, Alani Nu, and Rockstar brands. The partnership aims to enhance distribution capabilities and broaden market reach for both companies. Social media activity reflects a positive sentiment surrounding these developments, with shares of Celsius increasing notably.

MESO | -10.1% | -1.7B
Mesoblast Ltd | Biotechnology
Mesoblast Ltd reported a net loss of $102.1 million for FY25, an increase from the $88.0 million loss in the previous year. Revenue rose to $17.2 million, up from $5.9 million. The company's earnings per share were $(0.09), significantly missing the consensus estimate of $(0.05) by 70 percent and reflecting a substantial increase in losses from $(8.91) per share in the same period last year. Despite these financial challenges, CEO Dr. Silviu Itescu noted the achievement of FDA approval for Ryoncil and its successful commercial launch for treating steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease in pediatric patients. Mesoblast released its FY earnings yesterday at 5:00 PM NY time and provided an operational update for the period ended June 30, 2025, on August 28, 2025.

BABA | +4.3% | +103.5B
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd | Broadline Retail
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd reported its fiscal first-quarter results for the period ending June 30, 2025, revealing a net income of RMB 42.38 billion, a substantial increase from the previous year's RMB 24.02 billion. Total revenue reached RMB 247.65 billion, reflecting a modest year-over-year increase but falling short of market expectations. Adjusted earnings per share were reported at RMB 1.84, down from RMB 2.05 last year. The cloud segment exhibited robust growth, with revenue rising by 26% due to heightened demand for AI products. Additionally, the company announced the development of a new AI chip designed to enhance its competitive edge in artificial intelligence, which is compatible with NVIDIA tools. Social media discussions highlighted the shortfall in revenue and adjusted EPS compared to estimates, while also noting approximately 16 million shares were net bought by mainland investors recently.

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