U.S.-China Trade Tensions Influence Currency Fluctuations; Bitcoin Gains, UnitedHealth Faces Investigation Over Medicare Practices | MarketReader Minute
Mixed economic data from Germany and France impacts market sentiment as U.S.-China trade tensions influence currency fluctuations ahead of key PMI releases.
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Friday, February 21
Noteworthy macro moves today: Ethereum +3.7%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) -12.3%.
Recent economic data releases have shown mixed results across major economies, impacting market sentiment. In Germany, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 46.1 in February from January's 45, surpassing expectations and indicating a slower decline in manufacturing activity; however, services sector growth eased slightly with a reading of 52.2 compared to forecasts of 52.5. Conversely, France reported significant contractions in its Services PMI at 44.5 against an expected drop to only 48.9.
In terms of central bank policy implications, U.S President Donald Trump's comments regarding potential trade negotiations with China are influencing currency movements and investor confidence ahead of key upcoming economic indicators such as the S&P Global PMIs for February set for release later today along with existing home sales figures that may further shape market outlooks on interest rates and inflationary pressures.
Additionally, there is notable volatility within equity markets following disappointing earnings reports like Walmart’s which raised concerns about consumer spending trends amid ongoing geopolitical tensions related to tariffs proposed by Trump on various imports including cars and pharmaceuticals—factors contributing significantly towards fluctuations seen recently across global indices.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [+1.0%]
Bitcoin experienced a notable increase today, trading at approximately 98,300 per Bitcoin, reflecting an uptick of over $1,000. This rise coincided with the confirmation of Kash Patel as FBI director, who is reported to have substantial investments in cryptocurrency-related assets. Additionally, the SEC's reported relaxation of its enforcement approach on cryptocurrencies has contributed to Bitcoin's positive daily return of 0.3%. On the social media front, J.P. Morgan issued a bearish alert regarding Bitcoin amid ongoing market volatility, while discussions highlighted that Bitwise's spot Bitcoin ETF acquired approximately 249 BTC valued at $24.1 million. VanEck released research suggesting a U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve could mitigate national debt by 2049. Furthermore, Capital Altvest became the first publicly listed company in Africa to purchase BTC, acquiring one Bitcoin for about 1.8 million rand. Open interest in Bitcoin increased by 7.2%, or roughly $2.4 billion, over the past 24 hours.
United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [-0.7%]
Crude oil prices have declined, with Brent crude down to 76.05 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at 72.04 per barrel. Both benchmarks are on track for their largest weekly gains since early January, driven by supply concerns from Russia and a better demand outlook in the U.S. and China. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a rise in crude oil inventories for the week ending February 14, alongside a slight increase in production and reductions in gasoline and distillate stocks. Geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions continue to affect market sentiment. Concurrently, Brent crude futures are experiencing volatility amid ongoing uncertainty related to supply risks and potential production delays from OPEC+. Additionally, the U.S. dollar has strengthened against major currencies, following a rebound in the US Dollar Index, which could impact global purchasing power for oil.


UNH | -11.8% | -48.2B
UnitedHealth Group Inc | Managed Health Care
UnitedHealth Group Inc is currently facing a civil fraud investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice concerning its Medicare billing practices. This inquiry is centered on the company's documentation of diagnoses that have resulted in additional payments for its Medicare Advantage plans. Reports indicate that this investigation is distinct from an ongoing antitrust probe involving the company. The scrutiny has led to a significant decline in UnitedHealth's stock price, with shares dropping substantially in pre-market trading. Social media discussions highlighted allegations that the company may have added untreated diagnoses to patient records, which purportedly triggered an excess of $8.7 billion in federal payments. The average additional federal payment per visit for these untreated diagnoses was noted to be $2,735.
AKAM | -9.0% | -1.2B
Akamai Technologies Inc | Internet Services & Infrastructure
Akamai Technologies Inc reported its fourth quarter 2024 results, disclosing a non-GAAP EPS of $1.66, slightly down from $1.69 year-over-year, and matching analyst expectations. Revenue reached $1.02 billion, reflecting a 2.5% year-over-year increase. However, the company issued disappointing guidance for Q1 2025, projecting adjusted EPS between $1.54 and $1.59, below the consensus estimate of $1.66, and revenue expectations of $1.00 billion to $1.02 billion versus the anticipated $1.04 billion. For the full year, Akamai forecasts adjusted EPS of $6.00 to $6.40 and revenue between $4.00 billion and $4.20 billion, both lower than analyst estimates. Following the earnings announcement, the stock experienced a significant decline of 10%. Notably, security and compute revenue accounted for 69% of total revenue in Q4, growing by 16% year-over-year.
MELI | +12.2% | +14.7B
MercadoLibre Inc | Broadline Retail
MercadoLibre, Inc. reported strong fourth-quarter 2024 financial results, with net revenue reaching $6.1 billion, a 37% year-over-year increase, surpassing estimates of $5.96 billion. The company achieved a net income of $639 million, exceeding expectations of $406.4 million. Earnings per share (EPS) of $12.61 outperformed the analyst estimate of $8.05 by a significant margin. Analysts from Barclays and BofA Securities raised their price targets for the stock to $2,500 and $3,000, respectively. Social media highlighted a remarkable 287% increase in quarterly profit and strong growth in unique buyers and items sold on its platform. Total payment volume rose to $58.9 billion, up 33% year-over-year. Susquehanna also increased its price target for MELI from $2,350 to $2,760, reflecting a positive outlook for the company amidst discussions of robust recovery in Argentina and optimism for 2025.
NU | -7.9% | -4.6B
Nu Holdings Ltd | Diversified Banks
Nu Holdings Ltd reported its fourth-quarter results, revealing a net income of 552.6 million, which fell short of the estimated 566.4 million. Adjusted net income was 610.1 million against an expectation of 588.8 million. Total revenue for the quarter was 2.99 billion, missing the 3.29 billion estimate. For the full fiscal year, sales totaled 11.510 billion, underperforming the consensus estimate of 11.749 billion. Despite these financial setbacks, the company reported a 22% year-over-year increase in total customers, reaching 114.2 million. Following the announcement, Nu Holdings shares experienced a significant decline in after-hours trading due to disappointing revenue figures, with a drop of approximately 6-8%. The company also reported an EBIT of 768 million against expectations of 818 million, while the EPS matched estimates at 0.11.
XYZ | -9.0% | -4.2B
Block Inc | Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Block Inc reported its fourth-quarter financial results, posting an adjusted EPS of $0.71, missing the consensus estimate of $0.87 by over 18%. Revenue also fell short, totaling $6.03 billion against expectations of $6.29 billion, although this reflects a year-over-year increase from $5.77 billion. Following the earnings announcement, shares declined significantly in after-hours trading. CEO Jack Dorsey expressed optimism about future growth, projecting a gross profit of $10.22 billion for FY25, a 15% increase year-over-year. Social media discussions highlighted mixed sentiment regarding the earnings miss and the company's strategic transition from a payments solution to a commerce platform, while noting a 10% year-over-year increase in Cash App inflows per transacting active user. Despite some skepticism regarding long-term viability in the fintech space, there was mention of a year-over-year acceleration in total GPV growth to 7.8%.
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