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Thursday, October 23

Noteworthy macro moves today: Oil (WTI) +3.3%. Copper +1.6%. Bitcoin +1.4%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Tesla Inc (TSLA) -3.7%. UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) -1.8%. Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) +1.5%. 

The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are significantly impacting market sentiment, particularly as the Trump administration considers imposing restrictions on software exports to China in retaliation for Beijing's recent export controls on rare earth minerals. This has led to increased caution among investors and a mixed performance across global equity indices.

In economic data releases, Canada is experiencing contrasting trends: manufacturing sales are expected to rebound by 2.8% in September after a decline of 1% in August, while retail sales have reportedly fallen by 0.7%, marking one of the largest drops this year. Meanwhile, France’s business climate indicator shows improvement driven primarily by stronger confidence within its manufacturing sector.

Additionally, markets await key inflation data from the U.S., scheduled for release tomorrow; expectations suggest an increase in consumer prices that could influence Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions ahead of their upcoming meeting where rate cuts are anticipated due to current economic conditions exacerbated by factors like government shutdowns affecting data availability.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [+3.4%]
Oil prices have risen significantly due to recent U.S. sanctions targeting Russia's largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, in response to the ongoing Ukraine conflict. WTI crude oil has jumped considerably, reaching $61.75 per barrel, while Brent Spot Oil has recorded a notable daily return. These sanctions have heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions, further elevating oil prices. Discussions on social media regarding the United States Oil Fund LP (USO) have highlighted expectations of additional sanctions from Treasury Secretary Bessent, which may impact oil prices. Conversations also reflect ongoing geopolitical tensions that could influence market sentiment towards energy commodities.

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) [+1.6%]
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated in a recent interview that energy prices are currently declining, which may lead to a decrease in Consumer Price Index figures in the coming months. Meanwhile, oil prices surged significantly following new U.S. sanctions on Russia's major oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. This development has tightened global crude supply and positively influenced the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), which is up 1.8%. Key contributors to this performance include Exxon Mobil Corp, which saw a notable increase due to a new oil deal in Gabon, along with Chevron, ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources, and Schlumberger. Additionally, Brent crude oil prices rose sharply, further supporting the movement in XLE.

TSLA | -3.9% | -52.2B
Tesla Inc | Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla Inc's stock is experiencing downward pressure, having dropped significantly following its Q3 earnings report. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.50, missing analyst expectations of $0.54, despite revenue exceeding forecasts at $28.1 billion. This revenue figure surpassed the consensus estimate of $26.22 billion. Additionally, Tesla noted substantial tariff impacts exceeding $400 million and a 40% decline in operating income year-over-year to $1.62 billion. CEO Elon Musk discussed a cautious rollout of Robotaxi services, now expected to be limited in Austin by year-end, which is a shift from earlier broader deployment plans. Social media discussions reflect mixed sentiment regarding the earnings report, highlighting both strong revenue growth and concerns over declining margins and operational challenges. The broader Automobile Manufacturers sector is also moving lower, contributing to Tesla's price decline.

IBM | -8.1% | -19.6B
International Business Machines Corp | IT Consulting & Other Services
International Business Machines Corp reported its third-quarter results on October 22, 2025, achieving adjusted earnings per share of 2.65, surpassing analyst estimates of 2.45. Revenue totaled 16.33 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of 16.09 billion and reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase. Despite these positive figures, shares fell approximately 5% in after-hours trading due to concerns over a projected slowdown in revenue growth for the full year, now anticipated to exceed 5%, down from a current quarter growth rate of 7%. The hybrid cloud unit, Red Hat, reported a deceleration in growth to 14%, compared to 16% in the prior quarter. Social media discussions highlighted an implied swing of ±5.71% for Thursday, with users expressing confusion over the stock's decline despite the earnings beat.

HON | +4.2% | +5.8B
Honeywell International Inc | Industrial Conglomerates
Honeywell International Inc. reported its third-quarter results, revealing a 7% increase in sales year-over-year to $10.4 billion, surpassing analyst expectations. The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached $2.82, exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.57. The company raised its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $10.60-$10.70 while slightly lowering its revenue outlook to between $40.7 billion and $40.9 billion. The aerospace technologies segment led growth with a 12% organic sales increase, driven by rising demand for aviation electronics. Additionally, Honeywell announced a new operating structure in anticipation of its planned aerospace spin-off, set for January 1, 2026, transitioning to three segments: Aerospace Technologies, Building Automation, and Industrial & Process Automation.

MEDP | +17.6% | +3.5B
Medpace Holdings Inc | Life Sciences Tools & Services
Medpace Holdings Inc. reported its third-quarter results on October 22, 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of 3.86, surpassing the consensus estimate of 3.57. Revenue reached 659.9 million, exceeding expectations of 640.98 million. The company raised its fiscal year 2025 EPS guidance to a range of 14.60 to 14.86, up from a previous range of 13.76 to 14.53. Revenue expectations were also revised to between 2.48 billion and 2.53 billion, compared to earlier estimates of 2.42 billion to 2.52 billion. Medpace reported a 47.9% increase in net new business awards for the quarter, contributing to a backlog of 3.0 billion. Additionally, the company repurchased 4.5 million of its stock during Q3, bringing the total repurchase for 2025 to 912.9 million.

CNC | -7.3% | -1.3B
Centene Corp | Managed Health Care
Centene Corp's shares have dropped significantly, down 7.3%, following adverse results from Molina Healthcare, which reported an 18% decline in its stock price after a disappointing Q3 earnings report. Molina's adjusted EPS of $1.84 fell well short of the consensus estimate of $3.91, despite revenue slightly exceeding expectations at $11.48 billion. This negative performance from Molina has raised concerns in the managed-care sector, particularly regarding Medicaid pressures, and has led to a sympathetic decline in Centene's stock. Social media discussions have highlighted the correlation between the two companies, with commentary emphasizing that Molina's struggles are viewed as indicative of broader challenges facing Centene. The market is also anticipating Centene's upcoming Q3 FY2025 earnings announcement, with an estimated EPS of -$0.18 and revenue expected to reach $47.7 billion.

NOK | +6.0% | +1.9B
Nokia Oyj | Communications Equipment
Nokia Oyj reported its third-quarter results, revealing net sales of €4.828 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of €4.650 billion. The company achieved a comparable operating profit of €239 million, down from €278 million year-over-year, with a gross margin contraction to 43.7%. Notably, Nokia raised its fiscal 2025 profit outlook to between €1.7 billion and €2.2 billion, up from a previous range of €1.6 billion to €2.1 billion. The board proposed a dividend of €0.03 per share, payable on November 6. Concurrently, social media highlighted a significant surge in Nokia's stock price, attributed to strong demand from AI and cloud customers, with operational profit reaching €435 million against expectations of €324 million. This marks the company's best daily gain since 2021, reinforcing positive sentiment around its performance in the technology sector.

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