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Monday, April 28

Noteworthy macro moves today: Bitcoin +1.8%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Meta Platforms Inc (META) +1.9%. 

Recent developments in the U.S.-China trade relationship continue to exert significant influence on global markets. Despite ongoing discussions about potential tariff negotiations, China has publicly stated that it is not currently engaged in any talks with the U.S., which raises concerns over future economic interactions and impacts consumer prices as retailers adjust for tariffs by significantly increasing costs.

In addition to trade tensions, upcoming key economic data releases are poised to shape market expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy. This week will see important reports including GDP growth figures and employment statistics such as Nonfarm Payrolls; these indicators could provide insights into how recent policies have affected labor conditions and overall economic health.

Lastly, European equity indices show modest gains amid a generally positive sentiment influenced by hopes of improved U.S.-China relations. However, uncertainty remains prevalent due to mixed signals from both sides concerning actual progress toward resolving outstanding issues related to tariffs and broader trade agreements.

iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) [-0.2%]
The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) has experienced a slight decline of 0.2% since Friday. China has announced exemptions for certain U.S. imports from its high tariffs, suggesting a potential easing of trade tensions with the United States. This news has generated optimism in global markets. However, Chinese manufacturers are suspending operations and exploring alternative markets due to U.S. tariff increases, significantly impacting global supply chains and threatening jobs. Reports indicate that production is pausing in key export hubs like Yiwu and Dongguan. Goldman Sachs has downgraded China's GDP growth forecasts to 4.0% for 2025 and 3.5% for 2026, below the government's target. Social media discussions reflect mixed sentiments; while there was a noted recovery in China's industrial profits in March, warnings about potential job losses in the Chinese export sector persist, which may negatively influence perceptions of FXI. Among the ETF's holdings, notable contributors included LI and JD, which posted positive returns, albeit modestly.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [+1.7%, +6.6B]
Bitcoin is currently experiencing an increase, attributed to heightened corporate treasury accumulation and record inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The establishment of the U.S. government's 'Strategic Bitcoin Reserve' has intensified competition among sovereign entities for Bitcoin acquisition. President Trump's recent remarks on trade negotiations with China have also fostered optimism in both crypto and equity markets. Concurrently, significant social media discussions highlight Arizona's Bitcoin Reserve bills facing a final vote, potentially making it the first state to adopt such a reserve. Additionally, digital asset investment products saw inflows of $3.4 billion last week, with Bitcoin products leading the way. However, a recent theft of 3,520 BTC, valued at approximately $330 million, has raised concerns about security in the cryptocurrency space. This incident coincides with a noted stall in Bitcoin's rally efforts around $95,000 amid uncertainties regarding a potential trade deal between Trump and Xi Jinping.

DPZ | -2.2% | -370.3M
Domino's Pizza Inc | Restaurants
Domino's Pizza Inc reported its Q1 earnings, revealing earnings per share of 4.33, surpassing the consensus estimate of 4.07. Revenue for the quarter was 1.11 billion, falling short of the expected 1.13 billion. U.S. same-store sales declined by 0.5%, contrary to analyst predictions for a 0.5% increase, attributed to reduced consumer spending amid inflation and economic uncertainty. In contrast, international same-store sales grew by 3.7%. Following the earnings announcement, the stock experienced a decline of approximately 3.9% in premarket trading, with a notable drop of 5.6% occurring shortly after the results were released. Social media discussions highlighted the mixed results, particularly emphasizing the disappointing U.S. sales figures and their potential impact on overall performance.

TM | +3.1% | +81.8B
Toyota Motor Corp | Automobile Manufacturers
Toyota Motor Corp reached a four-week high of 2,732.00 JPY, despite experiencing a significant decline over the past month and year. The company is considering a potential buyout of Toyota Industries, which could notably affect the supplier's stock performance. Shares of Toyota Industries are expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating a 23% increase from the previous close. This proposed buyout coincides with broader corporate governance reforms in Japan, which may present challenges for Toyota, particularly regarding Chairman Akio Toyoda's intentions. Recent social media discussions highlighted optimism surrounding a cash injection into equity markets if the acquisition proceeds, further aligning with Toyota's upward price movement.

HOOD | +2.1% | +933.2M
Robinhood Markets Inc | Investment Banking & Brokerage
Robinhood Markets Inc. has seen significant insider activity, with Director Baiju Bhatt selling 47,133 shares at $45.27, totaling approximately $2.13 million as reported in an SEC filing. Recent social media discussions highlight that the stock has been trading between $29.66 and $49.99 over the past month, currently near the upper end at $49.45, suggesting strong upward momentum. Users noted that the stock's chart appears stronger than the broader market, having held above the 200-day moving average and nearing a breakout level, with optimism for movement above $50 if market conditions remain favorable. Additionally, Robinhood is expected to announce its Q1 FY2025 earnings after market close on April 30, with an EPS estimate of $0.34 and revenue estimate of $920.3 million, significantly higher than previous estimates.

LLY | -1.2% | -10.0B
Eli Lilly and Co | Pharmaceuticals
Eli Lilly and Co's stock has dropped significantly in premarket trading, influenced by a downgrade from HSBC, which lowered its rating from Buy to Reduce and cut the price target from 1,150 to 700. This downgrade is attributed to concerns regarding economic sensitivity related to weight loss drug adoption and high stock multiples. Concurrently, the broader market, including the Pharmaceuticals sector, is also experiencing declines. Recent social media discussions highlighted Eli Lilly's valuation relative to Novo Nordisk, particularly in the obesity drug market, alongside a legal win for Novo Nordisk that could affect Eli Lilly's competitive positioning. The company is set to announce its Q1 FY2025 earnings on May 1, with an EPS estimate of 4.97 and a revenue estimate of 12.9 billion.

BA | +1.8% | +2.0B
Boeing Co | Aerospace & Defense
Boeing Co. is positioned for a significant acquisition as Spirit AeroSystems announced the divestiture of key assets to Airbus, which includes facilities in Kinston, North Carolina, and St. Nazaire, France. This transaction is part of Boeing's plan to acquire Spirit for $4.7 billion. The agreement with Airbus involves a $200 million non-interest-bearing credit line for Spirit and a payment of $439 million for the assets. Concurrently, Riyadh Air's CEO indicated readiness to purchase Boeing aircraft originally intended for Chinese airlines, contingent on potential delivery impacts from ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. Social media discussions have highlighted the three-way deal involving Airbus and Boeing's plans to buy back Spirit, expected to close alongside the acquisition in the third quarter of 2025. Additionally, Boeing received an upgrade to "Outperform" from "Market Perform" at Bernstein.

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