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Monday, October 27

Noteworthy macro moves today: Gold -1.7%. Nasdaq 100 Index (US) +1.3%. USD/CNH -0.3%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) +2.2%. Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) +1.9%. Alphabet Inc (GOOG) +1.8%. 

Market sentiment has been buoyed by easing U.S.-China trade tensions, with reports indicating that negotiators from both countries have reached a preliminary framework for an agreement ahead of the upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. This optimism is reflected in significant gains across Asian equity markets, including Japan's Nikkei 225, which surged past the 50,000 mark.

In economic data releases today, Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 88.4 in October from September's reading of 87.7—above expectations—and highlighted improvements in business expectations despite a slight decline in current conditions. Additionally, bank lending growth within the Eurozone showed positive signs as household loans increased at their fastest pace since early last year.

Investors are also closely monitoring central bank actions this week; market participants anticipate further rate cuts by major institutions such as the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada following softer-than-expected inflation figures released recently. The Fed is expected to announce its decision on interest rates during its policy meeting scheduled for Wednesday amidst ongoing concerns regarding government shutdown impacts on economic indicators.

Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) [+16.8%]
The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) has surged by approximately 16.8% in pre-market trading, coinciding with a historic electoral victory for Libertarian President Javier Milei's party, which garnered 41.5% of the votes in Buenos Aires province. This triumph has expanded their representation in Congress from 37 to 64 seats. Social media discussions highlight that ARGT saw an increase of around 16% earlier this morning, with equities rising from under 70 to 86 since the start of the month. The top contributors to ARGT's performance include MercadoLibre Inc., which may be influenced by the political shift affecting economic policies in Argentina, particularly in e-commerce and digital payments. Additionally, Bessent's assurance that the U.S. would not incur losses from the Argentina bailout has been noted on social media, although this was presented humorously and is not directly linked to ARGT's price movement.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [-1.7%]
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has seen a decline of 1.7% in pre-market trading, coinciding with a broader drop in gold prices. December gold futures have fallen significantly, ending a nine-week winning streak, while spot gold has also decreased. This downturn is linked to a stronger U.S. dollar, which has reached a two-week high against the yen, increasing gold's cost for foreign holders. Additionally, easing U.S.-China trade tensions have diminished demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The SPDR Gold Trust reported a decrease in its holdings, indicating reduced interest. Social media discussions highlight ongoing bullish sentiment among traders, despite the recent price movements. Notably, there is a hiring surge in the gold trading sector, which is driving up compensation in this growing market, further reflecting increased activity in gold trading. Silver prices have also dropped, reinforcing the correlation between these precious metals and their impact on GLD.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) [+2.0%]
Softer-than-expected inflation figures for September, which saw a year-over-year increase of 3%, have bolstered expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts. This has contributed to a bullish market trend, with major indices reaching new all-time highs. Intel Corporation reported a Q3 earnings beat, with revenues of $13.65 billion and an adjusted EPS of $0.23, attributing increased demand for computing resources to AI. The semiconductor sector appears to have benefited from this positive sentiment, as reflected in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF's recent price movement. Significant contributors to the ETF's performance included Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron Technology, Lam Research, and Applied Materials. Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 Index rose, further aligning with the ETF's 2.0% increase, suggesting a correlation between broader market trends and the semiconductor sector's performance.

NVDA | +2.2% | +104.6B
NVIDIA Corp | Semiconductors
NVIDIA Corp's CEO, Jensen Huang, recently addressed Caltech graduates, emphasizing resilience over raw intelligence and recounting the company's history of market challenges. He highlighted NVIDIA's strategic pivot towards less competitive areas. The company also unveiled the Rubin CPX GPU at the AI Infra Summit, designed for large-scale AI workloads, featuring significant performance enhancements. Social media discussions have noted that NVIDIA's GTC event is approaching, with mixed sentiments about its stock performance. Posts indicated that NVIDIA has historically performed well during this time of year, averaging notable increases over the last 19 years. Additionally, SoftBank approved a substantial investment in OpenAI, positioning NVIDIA as a key player in AI infrastructure. The Nasdaq 100 Index has risen, reflecting broader market sentiment that often influences technology stocks, contributing to NVIDIA's recent price increase.

HBAN | -5.4% | -1.2B
Huntington Bancshares Inc | Regional Banks
Huntington Bancshares Inc has announced its intention to acquire Cadence Bank in a $7.4 billion all-stock transaction. Under the agreement, Huntington will issue 2.475 shares of its common stock for each share of Cadence, valuing Cadence at $39.77 per share based on Huntington's closing price of $16.07 on October 24, 2025. This acquisition is expected to create a bank with total assets of $276 billion and deposits of $220 billion, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals, with an anticipated closing in the first quarter of 2026. Additionally, the CEO commented on the company's financial reporting, noting significant tightness in both the consumer and commercial sectors, and outlined measures including policies and active portfolio management to address these challenges.

BBIO | +7.9% | +866.2M
BridgeBio Pharma Inc | Biotechnology
BridgeBio Pharma Inc. reported positive results from its Phase 3 FORTIFY study of BBP-418 for limb-girdle muscular dystrophy type 2I/R9, published recently. The study achieved all primary and secondary interim analysis endpoints at 12 months, showing a significant increase in glycosylated alpha-dystroglycan from baseline at 3 months. Additionally, the average reduction in serum creatine kinase, a marker of muscle breakdown, was recorded at an 82% change from baseline in the treated group. The company plans to file a New Drug Application with the FDA in the first half of 2026. Following this announcement, social media buzz indicated a notable pre-market price increase of approximately 16%. BridgeBio is also expected to announce its Q3 FY2025 earnings on October 29, 2025, with an EPS estimate of $-0.82 and a revenue estimate of $107.0M.

KDP | +8.6% | +3.4B
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc | Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. reported its third-quarter earnings today, revealing an adjusted EPS of 0.54, matching analyst expectations, and revenue of 4.31 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of 4.15 billion. This represents a year-over-year revenue increase of 10.7%. The company has raised its fiscal 2025 guidance for constant currency net sales growth to a high-single-digit range, up from a mid-single-digit outlook. CEO Tim Cofer noted strong performance in the U.S. Refreshment Beverages segment, which experienced a net sales increase of 14.4%, driven by volume growth and pricing strategies. Additionally, Keurig Dr Pepper generated operating cash flow of 639 million and free cash flow of 528 million during the quarter. Social media discussions highlighted the earnings report and the raised sales outlook, with KDP seeing an increase in pre-market trading due to these results.

MELI | +6.3% | +7.3B
MercadoLibre Inc | Broadline Retail
MercadoLibre Inc (MELI) has experienced a notable price increase in pre-market trading, rising significantly since Friday. This movement coincides with Argentina's recent midterm elections, where President Javier Milei's party achieved victory, potentially signaling a shift in economic policies that could affect e-commerce and digital payments. Social media discussions highlight the addition of the iPhone 17 lineup to MercadoLibre's online store in Argentina through a new partnership with Apple. Furthermore, projections indicate that small and medium-sized enterprises using Mercado Libre and Mercado Pago may generate approximately R$380.9 billion in economic activity in Brazil next year, representing about 3.2% of the country's GDP. The company is set to announce its Q3 FY2025 earnings on October 29, with an expected EPS of $9.47 and revenue of $7.2 billion, both reflecting significant increases from previous estimates.

NEM | -4.6% | -4.2B
Newmont Corporation | Gold
Newmont Corporation has commenced commercial production at its Ahafo North project in Afrisipakrom, Ghana, following a successful first gold pour on September 19, 2025. The operation is projected to yield approximately 50,000 ounces of gold in its first year, with production increasing through 2026. Over the next five years, Ahafo North is expected to deliver between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces annually throughout its 13-year mine life. Concurrently, social media discussions have highlighted Newmont's interest in acquiring Barrick Gold's Nevada assets, suggesting market anticipation surrounding this potential deal. Recent reports indicate that the recent sell-off in Newmont shares was not linked to disappointing earnings but rather hedge fund speculation related to the Barrick offer. Additionally, gold prices have dropped significantly, which may also correlate with Newmont's recent decline of over 4%.

ADM | +3.9% | +1.3B
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co | Agricultural Products & Services
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co has seen a notable price increase of 3.9% since Friday. Recent social media discussions have highlighted the company's significant role as an agricultural processor and exporter, particularly regarding global soybean demand from China. The firm boasts robust infrastructure for international shipments, positioning it favorably within the agricultural sector. Additionally, Bunge Limited was mentioned as another key player in this space.

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