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Monday, May 12

Noteworthy macro moves today: Nasdaq 100 Index (US) +3.9%. S&P 500 Index (US) +2.9%. Gold -2.8%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) +8.6%. Tesla Inc (TSLA) +8.0%. Apple Inc (AAPL) +6.4%. 

Recent developments in U.S.-China trade relations have significantly influenced global markets. Following a weekend of negotiations, both countries announced an agreement to lower tariffs for 90 days, with the U.S. reducing its tariff on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will cut its duties on U.S. imports from 125% to just 10%. This news has led to a surge in risk appetite across equity markets and commodities.

As a result of this positive sentiment surrounding trade talks, major stock indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are seeing substantial gains—up approximately three percent at present—with futures indicating further upward momentum ahead of market openings today. The dollar index (DXY) also rose sharply by over one percent against other currencies due to reduced concerns about recession-linked rate cuts following these announcements.

In commodity markets, oil prices experienced significant increases alongside equities; WTI crude is up around four percent amid expectations for higher demand linked to improved economic conditions stemming from eased tensions between the two largest economies globally. Conversely, gold prices fell more than three percent as investors shifted away from safe-haven assets towards riskier investments amidst growing optimism regarding future growth prospects.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [+4.0%]
Crude oil prices have surged following the announcement of a 90-day tariff reduction between the United States and China. Brent crude rose significantly to $65.25 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate increased to $62.38 per barrel. This development is expected to enhance global economic growth prospects, despite ongoing production increases planned by OPEC and allied producers. Additionally, WTI crude was trading higher at $62.88 per barrel, reinforcing the positive momentum in oil commodity prices linked to the tariff truce. In social media discussions, it was highlighted that Saudi Aramco has reduced its dividend by $10 billion due to declining oil prices. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs projects Brent and WTI prices to decline to an average of $60 and $56 per barrel for the remainder of 2025, with further reductions anticipated in 2026.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) [-0.7%]
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has seen a decline of approximately 0.7% since Friday. This drop coincides with a decrease of about 0.5% in the US 30Y Treasury Bond, occurring alongside an agreement between the United States and China to temporarily reduce tariffs, which has led to increased optimism in global markets. Such optimism typically diminishes demand for safe-haven assets like Treasury bonds. Additionally, ongoing discussions regarding potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, amid economic uncertainties, may further pressure bond prices. In social media chatter, a notable purchase of $2 million in TLT was reported just before market close on Friday, alongside commentary about former President Trump’s pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding interest rates.

AMZN | +8.5% | +184.2B
Amazon.com Inc | Broadline Retail
Amazon.com Inc is experiencing a notable price increase alongside the broader market and the Broadline Retail sector. Recent developments in U.S.-China trade relations, including a 90-day truce and significant tariff reductions, have bolstered market sentiment. Major equity indices, such as the S&P500 futures, have risen substantially, reflecting this optimism. In specific company news, Amazon reported $13.9 billion in advertising revenue for the quarter, marking a year-over-year growth of 19%. Jeff Bezos emphasized the importance of a truth-first culture for organizational growth, underscoring strategies to challenge outdated practices. Additionally, social media discussions noted Amazon's year-to-date stock increase and its trading position above the 200-day moving average, suggesting potential upward momentum.

AAPL | +6.4% | +206.5B
Apple Inc | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Apple Inc. is experiencing a notable price increase, moving in tandem with the broader market and the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals sector. Reports suggest that Apple is contemplating raising prices for its upcoming fall iPhone lineup, with new features and designs accompanying these increases. This strategy aims to dissociate the price hikes from U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. In China, shipments of foreign-branded phones, including iPhones, have fallen significantly year-over-year, while overall phone shipments in the region have increased. Additionally, Apple is expected to place a record chip order with TSMC this year, reflecting its ongoing investment in production capabilities. The company has also gone ex-dividend recently, distributing $0.26 per share.

NRG | +9.3% | +2.5B
NRG Energy Inc | Electric Utilities
NRG Energy Inc. has experienced a notable price increase, aligning with broader market trends. This movement coincides with significant developments in U.S.-China trade relations, which have positively influenced global market sentiment. NRG recently announced the acquisition of a power portfolio from LS Power valued at approximately $12 billion, including cash and stock components, and the assumption of net debt. This transaction is projected to double NRG's generation capacity to 25 gigawatts, enhancing its footprint in key markets. Additionally, NRG's first-quarter earnings report revealed adjusted EPS of $2.68, exceeding estimates, and revenue of $8.59 billion, surpassing consensus expectations. The company reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance, maintaining a range of $6.75 to $7.75.

NVDA | +4.6% | +137.6B
NVIDIA Corp | Semiconductors
NVIDIA Corp's stock has increased significantly, aligning with a broader market surge driven by recent U.S.-China trade developments. A temporary agreement to suspend tariffs for 90 days has bolstered market sentiment, contributing to gains in major indices. Social media discussions reveal that NVIDIA has raised GPU prices by 10%-15% for AI servers, a move aimed at countering losses from H20 chip sales to China and rising costs at TSMC Arizona. Analysts remain confident in NVIDIA's long-term growth potential despite macro uncertainties. Additionally, the company's main chip testing partner, KYEC, announced plans to increase capital expenditure for 2025 due to strong demand for AI-related chip testing services. Notably, investing legend Peter Lynch mentioned NVIDIA positively in a recent interview, underscoring the importance of a solid investment thesis based on earnings.

QCOM | +7.0% | +12.2B
Qualcomm Inc | Semiconductors
Qualcomm Inc has experienced a notable price increase, aligning with the broader market surge. This upward movement coincides with recent developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations, where both nations announced a temporary agreement to suspend tariffs for 90 days and significantly reduce existing rates. Additionally, Qualcomm's deadline for its acquisition of Alphawave has been extended, allowing more time to finalize the deal, which may enhance its competitive positioning in the semiconductor industry. Meanwhile, discussions on social media regarding the upcoming Sony Xperia 1 VII smartphone have surfaced, highlighting its features and potential impact on Qualcomm's technology ecosystem. Overall, these factors contribute to the heightened activity surrounding Qualcomm as it navigates both strategic acquisitions and market dynamics.

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