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Wednesday, March 19

Noteworthy macro moves today: Ethereum +3.7%. USD/TRY +3.5%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Tesla Inc (TSLA) +3.0%. 

The Turkish lira has experienced a significant decline, with the USD/TRY pair rising sharply by over 5% following political turmoil in Turkey. The detention of Istanbul's mayor and ongoing concerns regarding President Erdogan’s governance have heightened risk aversion among investors, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like the US dollar.

In economic news from Europe, inflation data revealed that consumer price growth in the Eurozone eased to 2.3% year-on-year as of February 2025, slightly below expectations and down from January's six-month high of 2.5%. This slowdown may influence monetary policy discussions at upcoming European Central Bank meetings amid persistent pressures on prices due to geopolitical tensions and potential tariff impacts stemming from U.S.-China trade relations.

Additionally, market participants are closely monitoring developments surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision scheduled later today. Analysts expect rates will remain unchanged; however, attention is focused on any signals about future cuts or adjustments based on evolving economic conditions influenced by domestic policies under President Trump and global uncertainties affecting growth forecasts.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) [+3.7%]
Ethereum (ETH) has seen a price increase since Tuesday, amidst significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Over $214 million in liquidations occurred recently, driven by bearish sentiment among traders. Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are influencing behavior across asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. Today, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision, which may affect trading dynamics for ETH. Social media discussions highlight recent events impacting market sentiment; notably, the AI crypto bot AIXBT lost 55 ETH, valued at around $100,000, due to a hacker breach. Additionally, CME's Solana futures launch recorded only $12.3 million in volume on its first day, interpreted by K33 analysts as a sign of weak institutional demand. Conversations also mentioned XRP's rising momentum, suggesting interconnected discussions within the crypto community regarding asset performance.

Global X DAX Germany ETF (DAX) [-1.4%]
The Global X DAX Germany ETF has seen a price decline of 1.4% as the DAX Index opened 0.56% lower, down 131 points. Key contributors to this downturn include Brenntag, Bayer, and Sartorius, which reported losses. In contrast, notable gainers such as Rheinmetall, HeidelbergCement, and Siemens Energy posted increases. Social media discussions reflect a mixed sentiment; while one post noted the DAX's daily increases this week, another highlighted a slip ahead of a Federal Reserve decision, with Traton experiencing a significant drop following a Volkswagen stake sale. Among the ETF's holdings, SAP, Deutsche Bank, and MKKGY all recorded negative returns. Additionally, the EUR/USD pair has declined by 0.25%, aligning with the broader market sentiment affecting the ETF's performance.

GIS | -3.7% | -1.2B
General Mills Inc | Packaged Foods & Meats
General Mills reported its fiscal Q3 results, revealing an adjusted EPS of $1.00, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.96. However, net sales fell to $4.84 billion, below the expected $4.96 billion. The company has revised its FY25 organic net sales forecast to a decline of 1.5% to 2%, down from a previous expectation of flat to up 1%. Additionally, adjusted EPS is now projected to decrease by 7% to 8%, a downgrade from the earlier forecast of a decline of 3% to 1%. These results reflect greater-than-expected retailer inventory challenges and a downturn in snacking categories amidst ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. Following the earnings announcement, General Mills' stock moved down significantly, reflecting market reactions to the disappointing sales figures and revised guidance.

STNE | +10.0% | +1.3B
StoneCo Ltd | Transaction & Payment Processing Services
StoneCo Ltd reported its Q4 results, revealing revenue and other income of R$3.61 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase, surpassing estimates. Adjusted EBITDA reached R$1.90 billion, up 18% year-over-year, though slightly below expectations. The adjusted net income was R$665.6 million, also an 18% increase year-over-year, exceeding forecasts. Active clients rose to 4.17 million, marking an 18% growth. Total payment volume increased by 19% year-over-year to R$143.9 billion. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of R$2.26, exceeding the estimate of R$1.95. Following the earnings announcement, StoneCo shares experienced a notable rise in post-market trading, moving approximately 10% higher shortly after the results were released.

INTC | -2.7% | -2.9B
Intel Corp | Semiconductors
Intel Corp (INTC) has experienced a decline of 2.7% in pre-market trading. A recent report from DigiTimes reveals that a TSMC board member has dismissed rumors of a potential acquisition of Intel's foundry business, stating that the topic has never been discussed at the board level. This dismissal may contribute to negative sentiment surrounding Intel, particularly as it faces challenges in its foundry operations. Additionally, social media discussions reflect skepticism regarding the impact of the new CEO, Lip Bu Tan, on resolving deep-rooted issues and strategic missteps. While some posts express optimism about a potential turnaround and increased market share, others highlight Intel's lag behind competitors like Nvidia and AMD in AI chips and quantum computing, alongside significant losses in its foundry business and declining revenue.

TSLA | +2.7% | +19.9B
Tesla Inc | Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla Inc is experiencing a price increase, aligning with a broader rise in the Automobile Manufacturers sector. The company has received its first permit from the California Public Utilities Commission for a transportation charter-party carrier, allowing it to manage a fleet for pre-arranged trips. This permit is a significant step toward launching its robotaxi service, although it does not authorize autonomous rides or public ride-hailing yet. Social media buzz highlights the permit approval and Cantor Fitzgerald's upgrade of TSLA to "Overweight" with a price target of 425, citing attractive entry points following a visit to Tesla's Austin Gigafactory. Meanwhile, Tesla faces challenges, including reports of violent attacks on its vehicles, described as domestic terrorism by the U.S. Attorney General, and increased competition in China impacting its market position.

ADSK | +2.1% | +1.2B
Autodesk Inc | Application Software
Starboard Value LP, a significant shareholder with a stake exceeding $500 million, has announced plans to initiate a proxy fight at Autodesk Inc. The activist investor intends to nominate a minority slate of directors ahead of the upcoming annual meeting. Starboard's communication to shareholders raises concerns about Autodesk's prolonged financial and operational underperformance, coupled with ineffective board oversight. The firm aims for a target of achieving 45% underlying adjusted operating margins by FY2028 and stresses the necessity for a reconstituted board to restore accountability. This development has gained traction on social media, with multiple posts highlighting Starboard's intentions and the potential implications for Autodesk's governance. The Wall Street Journal has also reported on this matter, emphasizing the significance of Starboard's actions in relation to Autodesk's strategic direction. This news has coincided with a notable uptick in Autodesk's stock price.

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