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Monday, February 10

Noteworthy macro moves today: Gold +1.5%. Nasdaq 100 Index (US) +1.0%. S&P 500 Index (US) +0.6%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) +0.9%. 

Recent developments in the market are heavily influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs, specifically a 25% levy on all steel and aluminum imports. This move is part of an escalating trade policy that includes plans for reciprocal tariffs against countries imposing duties on American exports, which has raised concerns about potential retaliatory actions from trading partners.

In addition to tariff-related news, inflation expectations have surged among consumers; the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index reported a jump in one-year inflation outlooks to 4.3%, its highest since November 2022. These rising expectations come amid mixed signals from recent economic data releases regarding job growth and wage increases but indicate growing anxiety over future price pressures.

Market reactions include increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold, which reached record highs above $2,900 per ounce as investors seek refuge amidst uncertainty surrounding trade policies and their implications for global markets. Meanwhile, major equity indices showed resilience with futures indicating gains following Friday’s declines attributed to these same macroeconomic fears.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [+1.5%]
Gold prices have reached a new all-time high, increasing by 1.5% to approximately 2,931 per ounce. This surge is linked to heightened safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, particularly following the Trump administration's announcement of reciprocal tariffs. Concerns regarding inflation have intensified, with the University of Michigan reporting inflation expectations rising to 4.3%, the highest since November 2023. Social media discussions reflect increased interest in gold investments, noting that gold prices have surged by around $200 over the past month. Additionally, a reported gold shortage in London, attributed to global economic anxiety and significant transfers of gold to the U.S., has resulted in longer retrieval waiting times. Concurrently, banks' net short positions on gold are at record highs, while GLD has reached new highs, contrasting with the performance of related assets like GDX.

Invesco QQQ Trust Series I (QQQ) [+0.8%]
Invesco QQQ Trust Series I experienced a positive premarket session, rising 0.68% to 526.46, amidst a broader increase in U.S. stock futures following recent declines. This uptick coincides with market reactions to President Trump's announced tariffs, which are anticipated to escalate trade tensions. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust also recorded gains, reflecting a general recovery in market sentiment. Concurrently, the two-year and ten-year Treasury yields are at 4.28% and 4.49%, respectively. Social media discussions highlight optimism regarding QQQ's performance this week, particularly in light of the upcoming Consumer Price Index report. Additionally, T-Mobile US Inc's launch of its Starlink service aims to enhance mobile connectivity across the U.S., positioning it favorably within the telecommunications sector. The Dow Jones Index increased by 0.59%, aligning with QQQ's rise and underscoring similar responses to macroeconomic factors.

AA) [+4.7%, +315.7M]
Alcoa Corp - Aluminum
Alcoa Corp (AA) is experiencing a notable price increase, moving in tandem with the broader Aluminum sector, which is also seeing significant gains. Recent social media activity highlights former President Trump's impending announcement of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, which directly affects Alcoa and its competitors. Following this announcement, Alcoa's stock reportedly surged in overnight trading, aligning with similar upward movements in other companies within the sector. Additionally, the European Union has vowed to retaliate against these tariffs, introducing further geopolitical risks for Alcoa. In related developments, Century Aluminum Co (CENX) has recorded a substantial price increase, suggesting a correlation that may also be influencing Alcoa's performance.

ROK | +6.9% | +2.3B
Rockwell Automation Inc | Electrical Components & Equipment
Rockwell Automation Inc reported its fiscal Q1 results, revealing an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 1.83, surpassing the consensus estimate of 1.58, although down from 2.04 a year ago. Revenue for the quarter matched expectations at 1.88 billion, reflecting an 8.4% decline from 2.05 billion last year. The company noted a 10% increase in orders across all regions and segments. Additionally, Rockwell reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance at 8.60 to 9.80 but lowered its revenue outlook to approximately 8.1 billion from a prior estimate of 8.2 billion. In pre-market trading, Rockwell's stock price was noted at 268.40, reflecting a slight increase, which also surpassed estimates by 0.25.

BP | +6.8% | +38.8B
BP PLC | Integrated Oil & Gas
BP's shares have seen a significant increase following the announcement that activist investor Elliott Management has acquired a substantial stake in the company. Elliott plans to advocate for transformational changes aimed at enhancing shareholder value. This development has positively resonated in the market, contributing to an approximate 8% rise in BP's stock during early trading. Additionally, Kosmos Energy has reported the commencement of liquefied natural gas production at the BP-operated Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project, marking a key operational milestone. The delivery of the first LNG cargo is anticipated to generate cash flow for both BP and Kosmos. Social media discussions have highlighted the recent movements regarding BP's equity, particularly focusing on Elliott's involvement and its potential impact on BP's operational strategy and shareholder value enhancement.

MNDY | +24.1% | +3.8B
Monday.Com Ltd | Systems Software
Monday.com Ltd reported strong fourth-quarter results, with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.08, surpassing the analyst expectation of $0.79. Revenue for the quarter reached $268 million, reflecting a 32% year-over-year increase and exceeding the consensus estimate of $261.37 million. The company also reported a cash position of $1.41 billion, up 26% year-over-year. For Q1 2025, Monday.com anticipates revenue between $274 million and $276 million, slightly above the consensus estimate of $273.93 million. Full-year revenue guidance for 2025 is projected at $1.21 billion to $1.22 billion, aligning with analyst forecasts. Additionally, the company announced the full release of its AI Enterprise Service Management Platform, Monday service, now available to all customers. Following the earnings announcement, the stock experienced a notable increase of approximately 20%.

MCD | +1.4% | +3.0B
McDonald's Corp | Restaurants
McDonald's Corp reported its fourth-quarter results, revealing a global comparable sales increase of 0.4%, which exceeded analysts' expectations for a decline. In contrast, U.S. comparable sales fell by 1.4%, marking the largest decline in five years, compared to a significant increase in the previous year. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $2.83, slightly below the consensus estimate, alongside revenue of $6.39 billion, also missing projections. Positive performance was noted in international developmental licensed markets, which saw a sales increase of 4.1%. Social media discussions highlighted concerns about the decline in U.S. sales and average check sizes, despite an increase in guest counts. The Dow Jones Index moved up by 0.50%, reflecting broader market sentiment during this period.

SHOP | +3.2% | +5.0B
Shopify Inc | Internet Services & Infrastructure
Shopify Inc. received an upgrade from Benchmark, raising its rating to "buy" with a price target of $150. Citi also increased its price target for the company to $175 from $143 while maintaining a "buy" rating. The company is scheduled to announce its fourth-quarter earnings on February 11, 2025, with an estimated EPS of $0.43 and revenue of $2.7 billion. This follows a significant stock rally of 38% in recent weeks. Concurrently, social media discussions have echoed the upgrade from Benchmark, highlighting a shift in investment sentiment. Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 Index has risen, reflecting broader market trends that may correlate with Shopify's recent 3.2% increase.

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