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Friday, March 21

Noteworthy macro moves today: S&P 500 Index (US) -0.7%. Nasdaq 100 Index (US) -0.9%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Apple Inc (AAPL) -1.4%. Visa Inc (V) -0.8%. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) -0.6%. 

Recent market movements are heavily influenced by the anticipation of reciprocal tariffs set to be imposed by President Trump on April 2. This has raised concerns about potential economic slowdowns and inflationary pressures, particularly affecting sectors reliant on international trade, such as manufacturing in Europe—especially Germany.

In addition to tariff-related anxieties, recent U.S. economic data releases have shown mixed signals: jobless claims rose slightly while existing home sales exceeded expectations for February. The Federal Reserve's decision earlier this week to maintain interest rates within a range of 4.25%–4.50% reflects ongoing uncertainty regarding future monetary policy amid these developments.

Furthermore, public sector borrowing figures from the UK revealed an increase beyond forecasts for February at £10.7 billion compared with expected levels around £6-7 billion due to rising departmental spending amidst broader fiscal challenges facing the economy; this adds another layer of complexity as investors assess growth prospects across major economies globally.

iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) [-1.7%]
The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) has recorded a daily return of -1.61%, coinciding with a notable decline in Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, which fell significantly due to widespread losses in the financial and technology sectors amid concerns over trade tensions following recent tariff announcements. The Shanghai Composite Index also declined this week, marking the end of a two-week winning streak. Concurrently, the China Central Bank has suggested potential monetary policy adjustments, including possible cuts to the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates to enhance liquidity. Among FXI's holdings, JD, TCOM, and LI contributed negatively to performance. Additionally, the AUD/USD pair has experienced a slight decrease, reflecting broader market sentiment that may be influencing FXI's recent decline.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) [-0.6%]
In the pre-market session, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has declined by 0.6%. The S&P 500 index fell by 0.56%, reaching 5695, amid negative market sentiment influenced by renewed focus on Trump tariffs. Quad witching, involving $4.5 trillion in options expiring today, is expected to increase market volatility. Social media discussions highlight that the current 10% drawdown in SPY ranks as the sixth fastest on record. Notably, major contributors to SPY's performance include declines in Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Nike, the latter reporting a significant drop in footwear revenue and a challenging outlook due to tariffs. Conversely, Micron Technology exceeded earnings expectations, yet concerns about potential sell-offs following strong results were raised. Additionally, SPY has an upcoming ex-dividend date on March 21st, with a dividend payout of $1.676 per share anticipated on April 30th, 2025.

FDX | -9.2% | -5.1B
FedEx Corp | Air Freight & Logistics
FedEx Corp has revised its fiscal year 2025 earnings per share outlook, lowering the forecast to a range of 18.00 to 18.60, down from a prior estimate of 19.00 to 20.00 and below the consensus of 19.18. The company anticipates flat to slightly declining revenue growth year-over-year, a shift from previous expectations of stability. In its third-quarter results, FedEx reported adjusted EPS of 4.51, missing the analyst consensus estimate of 4.54, while revenues reached 22.20 billion, exceeding expectations of 21.89 billion. Following this news, analysts have adjusted their price targets downward, with Barclays reducing its target to 350 from 365, JPMorgan to 280 from 323, and Wells Fargo to 260 from 275. Social media sentiment reflects concerns over FedEx's performance, citing challenges such as severe weather and a compressed peak season, contributing to a significant drop in share price following the earnings report.

NKE | -7.0% | -7.1B
Nike Inc | Footwear
Nike Inc reported its Q3 earnings, revealing a significant decline in footwear revenue, which totaled $7.208 billion, marking a 12% year-on-year drop. The company anticipates a mid-teens percentage decrease in sales for the upcoming May quarter, attributed to ongoing tariffs and leadership changes. Gross margins are projected to decline by 400 to 500 basis points. Following this disappointing guidance, analysts have adjusted their price targets, now ranging from 64 to 99. Despite reporting earnings per share of $0.54, surpassing expectations of $0.29, and revenue of $11.3 billion exceeding the anticipated $11 billion, the stock fell approximately 5% in after-hours trading. Concerns about inventory levels remain, with a current figure of $7.54 billion despite a slight year-on-year reduction. Additionally, sales in China have seen a notable decline of 17% during the critical holiday quarter.

LEN | -4.0% | -1.3B
Lennar Corp | Homebuilding
Lennar Corp reported its first-quarter 2025 results, revealing adjusted earnings per share of 2.14, surpassing the consensus estimate of 1.73. Revenue reached 7.63 billion, exceeding expectations of 7.43 billion. Despite these positive figures, the company noted a decline in average sales price to 408,000, a 1% decrease year-over-year, and a gross margin of 18.7%, slightly below guidance. New orders increased by 1% to 18,355 homes, but their dollar value fell by 4% to 7.4 billion. Following the earnings announcement, shares dropped approximately 4.2% in after-hours trading. Social media discussions highlighted mixed reactions to the earnings report, with users noting the company's projected Q2 deliveries of between 19,500 and 20,500 homes, slightly above the estimate of 19,675.

MU | -3.4% | -3.7B
Micron Technology Inc | Semiconductors
Micron Technology Inc. reported its second-quarter results for fiscal 2025, revealing adjusted operating income of $2.01 billion, surpassing the estimate of $1.94 billion. Adjusted revenue reached $8.05 billion, a significant year-over-year increase, exceeding the consensus estimate of $7.91 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.56, beating the expected $1.43. The company forecasted third-quarter revenue between $8.6 billion and $9 billion, above the consensus estimate of $8.55 billion. Demand for high-bandwidth memory chips, particularly in the AI sector, was highlighted, alongside a tripling of revenue growth from data centers year-over-year. The Nasdaq 100 Index's decline of 0.38% may be influencing Micron's recent price movement of -3.0%.

MNSO | -6.5% | -1.6B
MINISO Group Holding Ltd | Broadline Retail
MINISO Group Holding Ltd reported its Q4 earnings, disclosing an earnings per share (EPS) of RMB2.56, which fell short of analyst expectations of RMB2.72. Revenue for the quarter reached RMB4.71 billion, also below the consensus estimate of RMB4.89 billion. Additionally, the company reported an adjusted EPS of 35 cents, with quarterly revenue at $645.64 million, missing FactSet's estimate of $667.3 million. While MINISO experienced a year-over-year revenue increase of 23%, it noted a decline in gross margin to 47%. These results were released approximately three hours ago, leading to a premarket decline of 3.8% in its stock price. Following this, MINISO's Q2 earnings were reported at 4:40 am NY time, with actual EPS at $0.35 and revenues at $645.6 million.

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