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Friday, July 11

Noteworthy macro moves today: Copper -1.9%. Gold +0.9%. 

Recent market movements are significantly influenced by escalating trade tensions, particularly following President Trump's announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports and potential blanket tariffs ranging from 15% to 20% for other nations. This development has led to increased risk aversion among investors, resulting in declines across major equity indices such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures.

In economic data releases, Canada's unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 6.9%, contrasting with expectations of an increase. Additionally, employment rose sharply by over 83,000 jobs in June against forecasts predicting no change; this positive labor market news may provide some support for the Canadian dollar amidst ongoing tariff concerns.

Meanwhile, UK GDP figures revealed a contraction of -0.1% month-over-month in May—worse than anticipated—and continued weakness was observed across industrial production sectors including manufacturing which fell more than expected at -1%. These disappointing results have raised questions about future monetary policy actions from the Bank of England amid persistent inflationary pressures linked to global supply chain disruptions exacerbated by recent U.S.-led tariffs.

iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC) [-0.6%]
The iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC) has experienced a daily return decline of approximately 0.77%, attributed to escalating trade tensions following President Trump's announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1. This development has negatively impacted the Canadian dollar and contributed to the ETF's performance. Additionally, significant movements among the ETF's holdings include declines from key contributors such as GIB, TD, SHOP, CNQ, and TECK. The Toronto-Dominion Bank has announced a private placement offering of AUD 30 million in Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes, which may influence its financial positioning. Furthermore, the Russell 2000 Index has declined by 0.84%, reflecting broader market sentiment that may be affecting EWC's performance.

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) [-0.6%]
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) has experienced a decline of approximately 0.6% in pre-market trading, coinciding with President Trump's announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian products, effective August 1. This tariff news has led to a significant drop in Dow futures, which fell by around 300 points shortly after the announcement. The broader market sentiment is reflected in the declines of major indices, with the Dow Jones Index and the S&P 500 both down by about 0.5%. Notably, key holdings within DIA such as Goldman Sachs, Caterpillar, and American Express have also reported negative returns, contributing to the ETF's overall performance. These developments highlight the interconnectedness of market dynamics amid rising trade tensions and mixed signals regarding interest rate policies from Federal Reserve officials.

BP | +1.8% | +9.5B
BP PLC | Integrated Oil & Gas
BP PLC's shares have risen following several key developments. OPEC has projected that global oil demand will reach 123 million barrels by 2050, positively impacting oil stocks. BP expects an increase in upstream production for the second quarter compared to the prior quarter, alongside strong results from its oil trading division. Despite facing potential after-tax impairments of $500 million to $1.5 billion due to declining gas and oil prices, refining margins have improved. Brent crude averaged lower in the second quarter, while U.S. gas prices also decreased. Additionally, BP reported a slight reduction in net debt from $27 billion. Nonetheless, shares are under pressure due to activist investor Elliott pushing for significant changes within the company.

COIN | +1.4% | +1.4B
Coinbase Global Inc | Financial Exchanges & Data
Coinbase Global Inc has announced a partnership with Perplexity AI to deliver real-time crypto market insights through a chat interface. This feature allows users to inquire about price movements and receive immediate data, thereby enhancing trading decisions. The service leverages Coinbase's live price and volume feeds, enabling users to investigate specific cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and gain contextual insights. Brian Armstrong noted the potential for this tool to significantly influence AI adoption in finance. Concurrently, social media discussions reflect a bullish sentiment towards Coinbase, with users suggesting that COIN could reach $400 or more. Recent posts highlighted a surge in bullish bets on COIN, particularly in May call options, which have appreciated significantly as the stock nears the $400 mark. The excitement around Bitcoin's recent price surge also contributed to discussions about increased activity in the crypto market.

LEVI | +7.7% | +651.6M
Levi Strauss & Co | Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Levi Strauss & Co. reported second-quarter earnings of $0.22 per share, significantly exceeding the analyst estimate of $0.13, representing a year-over-year increase. Revenue for the quarter reached $1.446 billion, surpassing expectations of $1.366 billion and slightly up from $1.441 billion last year. The company raised its fiscal year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $1.25 to $1.30, above the previous range of $1.20 to $1.25, and also anticipates revenue growth between 1% to 2%, a change from an earlier projection of decline. Social media discussions highlighted a 6% increase in net revenues and a 9% rise in organic net revenues, alongside record gross margin expansion to 62.6%. Following these announcements, several firms raised their price targets for LEVI, reflecting positive sentiment around the company's performance and outlook.

FCX | -2.3% | -1.6B
Freeport-McMoRan Inc | Copper
Freeport-McMoRan Inc is experiencing a decline of 2.3%, coinciding with a significant drop in the Copper sector, which has decreased notably. Copper prices have fallen, contributing to the company's price movement. Conversations on social media highlight that while copper prices have seen increases, volatility is expected due to proposed import tariffs that have led to domestic prices being considerably higher than global benchmarks. This has prompted stockpiling and altered market dynamics. Analyst ratings for Freeport-McMoRan vary, with some firms raising their price targets while others have reduced theirs, reflecting a consensus leaning towards a "Moderate Buy" despite the current price movement.

PFGC | +7.9% | +1.2B
Performance Food Group Co | Food Distributors
Performance Food Group Co has experienced a significant rise in its share price, increasing by over 7% in premarket trading. This uptick follows reports of takeover interest from US Foods, which has been evaluating a potential acquisition of Performance Food Group for several months. Bloomberg indicates that this acquisition could create a combined food distribution entity with approximately $100 billion in sales. The discussions surrounding this potential merger have gained traction on social media, reflecting heightened market focus on the implications for Performance Food Group's valuation.

RCAT | +15.7% | +91.1M
Red Cat Holdings Inc | Electronic Equipment & Instruments
Red Cat Holdings Inc (RCAT) has seen a notable price increase following recent developments in the drone industry. On September 25th, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued new orders aimed at expediting drone production and deployment, which encompasses companies like Red Cat. This directive is part of a broader strategic shift in defense policy to enhance U.S. drone capabilities, potentially benefiting firms within this sector. Social media discussions reflect a positive sentiment around RCAT, with users highlighting its solid after-hours performance and mentioning recent share issuance and the establishment of a new boat division funded by those proceeds. The correlation between Hegseth's orders and the favorable price movement of RCAT has been noted, suggesting heightened interest in the company's prospects linked to military contracts.

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