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Thursday, October 2

Noteworthy macro moves today: Nasdaq 100 Index (US) +0.9%. STI 30 Index (Singapore) +2.0%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Broadcom Inc (AVGO) +3.5%.

The U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1 due to a failure in Congress to pass funding legislation, is creating significant uncertainty in the markets. This situation has led to expectations of delayed economic data releases that are crucial for assessing labor market conditions and overall economic health. Yesterday, the ADP employment report indicated an unexpected loss of 32,000 jobs in September—far below forecasts—and this downturn reinforces speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

In Europe, recent unemployment figures have shown mixed results; while France's budget deficit narrowed slightly year-over-year as expenditures decreased and revenues increased, Eurozone unemployment edged up from record lows despite strong youth job statistics indicating some resilience within specific demographics. These developments may influence monetary policy discussions at the European Central Bank (ECB), particularly regarding future interest rates amid ongoing inflation concerns.

Market reactions include rising gold prices near historical highs driven by safe-haven demand amidst fears related to both geopolitical tensions and domestic fiscal instability caused by the shutdown. Additionally, major equity indices tracking tech stocks continue their upward momentum even as broader investor sentiment remains cautious given these macroeconomic uncertainties surrounding labor market performance and central bank policies across large global economies.

Oil (WTI) (XTI/USD) [-0.9%]
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are currently under pressure, trading near four-month lows at approximately 61.80 per barrel. This decline is attributed to concerns about oversupply, particularly with potential OPEC+ production increases set for November. Additionally, an unexpected rise in US crude inventories last week has exacerbated these concerns. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is contributing to economic uncertainty, which may further impact demand dynamics for oil. Market participants are also anticipating additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts amid weak employment data, highlighted by a loss of 32,000 jobs in September according to the ADP report released yesterday.

Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) [-0.6%]
The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) has seen a decline of approximately 0.7% since Wednesday. This follows a notable rise over the previous two days, driven by a breakthrough drug pricing agreement between President Trump and Pfizer Inc., which sparked a rally in health care stocks, marking the sector's best performance in five years. The agreement includes substantial discounts on medications and a $70 billion investment in domestic manufacturing by Pfizer. Despite this recent surge, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created significant uncertainty, delaying key economic data releases and contributing to negative sentiment across financial markets. Additionally, several of XLV's top holdings experienced declines, with Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, and Pfizer all contributing negatively to the fund's performance. Social media discussions reflect a positive sentiment towards XLV, noting a resurgence in the health care sector after a prolonged period of underperformance.

AMD | +3.2% | +8.6B
Advanced Micro Devices Inc | Semiconductors
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares rose in premarket trading following reports that Intel is considering AMD as a potential foundry customer. This comes on the heels of AMD's impressive year-to-date performance, marked by a substantial increase. Additionally, AMD is gaining traction alongside Nvidia and Broadcom, fueled by renewed enthusiasm for AI investments linked to OpenAI's recent launch of its Sora video-generation app. OpenAI's collaborations with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to enhance chip supply further highlight the positive sentiment in the AI chip sector. Social media discussions reflect mixed sentiment about AMD, noting tight CPU supplies and rising memory chip prices, while also mentioning the potential collaboration with Intel. There are expectations for improved demand in 2025 and suggestions that AMD's stock may rally back above its 50-day moving average. Concurrently, the Nasdaq 100 Index has also increased, reflecting broader market sentiment.

FICO | +15.5% | +6.7B
Fair Isaac Corp | Application Software
Fair Isaac Corp's stock surged following the announcement of its Mortgage Direct License Program, which enables mortgage lenders to bypass credit bureaus when calculating and distributing FICO Scores. This program features a new pricing model that reduces costs for lenders by eliminating credit bureau mark-ups. Two options are available: a performance model with a $4.95 royalty fee per score and a $33 fee per borrower at loan closing, or a per-score-only model that aligns with previous credit bureau fees. This strategic shift aims to enhance transparency and competition within the mortgage lending sector. In conjunction with this development, competitors Equifax and TransUnion saw declines in their stock prices, reflecting the impact of Fair Isaac's announcement on the broader market landscape.

EFX | -8.5% | -2.4B
Equifax Inc | Research & Consulting Services
Shares of Equifax Inc are trading lower in pre-market activity, reflecting a significant decline following FICO's launch of its Mortgage Direct License Program. This new initiative allows tri-merge resellers to calculate and distribute FICO scores directly to customers, bypassing traditional credit bureau channels. As a result, Equifax's stock dropped notably, coinciding with a broader downturn in credit bureau stocks, including TransUnion and Experian. Additionally, discussions on social media highlighted a 70% year-over-year increase in credit card fraud in Canada, as reported by Equifax Canada, further contributing to negative sentiment surrounding the company's performance.

TRU | -9.7% | -1.4B
TransUnion | Research & Consulting Services
Shares of TransUnion have dropped significantly following the announcement of FICO's Mortgage Direct License Program. This program allows credit report resellers to calculate and distribute FICO scores directly to lenders, bypassing traditional credit bureau channels. As a result, TransUnion's stock is down sharply in premarket trading, reflecting concerns over potential revenue impacts from credit scoring services. Social media discussions have also noted declines in shares for TransUnion, Equifax, and Experian in response to FICO's plans to license its scores for evaluating mortgage borrower creditworthiness.

STLA | +6.7% | +2.0B
Stellantis NV | Automobile Manufacturers
Stellantis NV shares surged significantly following a Morgan Stanley report highlighting a notable turnaround in market share, driven by a 15% year-on-year increase in U.S. sales for September. This growth elevated Stellantis' U.S. market share to 8.7%, up from 7.2% in August. In Q3 2025, Stellantis reported total U.S. sales of 324,825 vehicles, reflecting a 6% year-over-year increase. The Jeep brand saw sales rise by 11%, while Ram retail sales increased by 26%. Notably, the Jeep Wagoneer experienced a remarkable 122% growth in sales during this period. Additionally, Stellantis is exploring the potential sale of its car-sharing division, Free2move, as Chief Executive Antonio Filosa seeks to revitalize the company and has begun contacting potential buyers.

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