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Monday, January 27

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today: Nasdaq 100 Index (US) -3.4%. S&P 500 Index (US) -2.0%. US 10Y Treasury Bond +0.6%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) -11.4%. Broadcom Inc (AVGO) -10.8%. Microsoft Corp (MSFT) -4.5%. 

Recent market movements are heavily influenced by the emergence of China's DeepSeek AI model, which has raised concerns about U.S. technological dominance and led to significant sell-offs in tech stocks. Major indices such as the Nasdaq have seen declines exceeding 4%, with companies like Nvidia experiencing substantial drops due to fears that their high valuations may no longer be justified.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions surrounding trade policies under President Trump have contributed to a risk-off sentiment among investors. Following Trump's threats of imposing tariffs on Colombia over immigration issues—subsequently met with retaliatory measures from Colombia—the U.S. dollar initially strengthened but later weakened amid uncertainty regarding future tariff implementations against other countries, including Canada and Mexico.

Economic data releases also play a crucial role at this time; for instance, China reported disappointing manufacturing activity figures along with declining industrial profits year-over-year, indicating ongoing economic challenges within its economy. In contrast, Germany's Ifo Business Climate index showed slight improvement despite broader negative sentiments affecting European markets ahead of key central bank meetings scheduled for this week.

Invesco QQQ Trust Series I (QQQ) [-3.4%]
Invesco QQQ Trust Series I (QQQ) experienced a notable pre-market decline of approximately 3.4%. This movement coincided with broader market declines attributed to heightened concerns over competition in the AI sector, particularly from China's DeepSeek. U.S. stock futures fell significantly, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down nearly 5%. Reports indicated that QQQ was trading at 508.03, reflecting a drop of over 4%. Major holdings within the ETF contributed to this downturn, with NVIDIA and Broadcom both experiencing substantial declines due to competitive pressures. Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet also faced negative impacts from the overall tech sector sell-off. Social media discussions highlighted fears of panic selling and margin calls, alongside expectations surrounding upcoming tech earnings and the Federal Reserve meeting, which are contributing to market volatility.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) [-6.4%]
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is experiencing a notable decline of approximately 6.4% as of pre-market trading on Monday. This downturn is attributed to broader market pressures, particularly concerns regarding new AI developments from China's DeepSeek, which pose competitive challenges to U.S. tech firms, including Nvidia. The ETF's performance has also been negatively affected by recent tariff threats from President Trump against Colombia, which have heightened risk aversion among investors. Social media discussions reflect bearish sentiment towards semiconductors, with mentions of significant put options being purchased as hedges against potential declines. Key holdings within the ETF, such as Nvidia and Broadcom, have seen substantial drops in their stock prices due to these developments. Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 Index has declined, mirroring the negative sentiment affecting the semiconductor sector.

NVDA | -11.4%| -354.8B
NVIDIA Corp | Semiconductors
NVIDIA Corp's shares have dropped significantly, with a decline of approximately 11.4% in pre-market trading, now priced at $126.96. This downturn follows the launch of China's DeepSeek AI, which claims to compete with offerings from OpenAI. The new application has quickly risen to the top of the App Store, utilizing lower-cost chips and less data, raising concerns about NVIDIA's competitive positioning in the AI sector. Reports indicate that NVIDIA's market capitalization has decreased by around $400 billion, potentially marking one of the largest single-day losses in history. The broader tech sector is also feeling the effects, with notable declines among other AI-related stocks such as Meta Platforms and Microsoft. Additionally, discussions on social media reflect fears regarding declining demand for NVIDIA's high-margin products amid this evolving competitive landscape.

MSFT | -3.6% | -114.3B
Microsoft Corp | Systems Software
Microsoft Corp's stock price has dropped significantly amid a broader decline in the technology sector, influenced by competitive pressures from the Chinese AI startup DeepSeek, which has launched a free AI assistant that challenges established U.S. companies. This decline coincides with substantial decreases in other major tech stocks, including NVIDIA and Meta. The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions and mixed economic data, including a contraction in China's manufacturing sector. Additionally, Microsoft is set to report its Q2 FY2025 earnings this Wednesday, with an EPS estimate of $3.12 and a revenue estimate of $68.9 billion. Social media discussions reflect concerns about the competitive landscape in AI and Microsoft's valuation relative to emerging technologies. Microsoft’s stock has moved down in tandem with significant declines in correlated assets such as the Nasdaq 100 Index.

ORCL | -7.7%| -35.7B
Oracle Corp | Systems Software
Oracle Corp (ORCL) has experienced a significant decline of 7.7%. This drop coincides with a broader downturn in correlated assets, including a notable decrease of 10.15% in ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) and a 3.42% drop in the Nasdaq 100 Index. Microsoft Corp (MSFT) also fell by 3.54%, amidst negative sentiment in the technology sector, influenced by competition from a new AI assistant launched by a Chinese startup. Concurrently, Oracle announced a collaboration with El Paso Electric to enhance secure access to customer data, allowing residential customers to share energy usage data with third-party vendors. On social media, there was significant discussion regarding CEO Safra Catz's recent sale of $705 million in shares and ongoing negotiations for Oracle to acquire TikTok, reflecting strategic movements within the company.

NVO | -2.2% | -6.3B
Novo Nordisk A/S | Pharmaceuticals
Novo Nordisk A/S has experienced a decline of 2.2%, aligning with the broader market's downward trend. This movement comes amidst heightened geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, particularly following U.S. tariff announcements affecting Colombia. Additionally, fears surrounding potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico have contributed to a risk-off sentiment in financial markets. Social media discussions have highlighted a recent surge in Novo Nordisk shares due to promising results from its amycretin weight loss drug, although concerns about long-term health implications of weight loss medications persist. The Vanguard Russell 1000 Growth ETF has also dropped significantly, reflecting the overall market sentiment that may be influencing Novo Nordisk's performance.

SOFI | -13.7% | -2.2B
SoFi Technologies Inc | Consumer Finance
SoFi Technologies Inc. reported its Q4 results, with total net revenue reaching $734.13 million, an increase from the previous year's $615.40 million, and a net income of $332.47 million compared to $47.91 million last year. The company announced an adjusted EPS of $0.05, surpassing estimates of $0.04. However, guidance for Q1 indicates a GAAP EPS of $0.03, below the consensus estimate of $0.05, alongside projected adjusted net revenue of $725 million to $745 million, which is under expectations of approximately $688 million. Following these announcements, SoFi shares fell significantly in premarket trading, reflecting a broader market decline influenced by concerns over U.S. technological dominance and geopolitical tensions affecting investor sentiment across tech stocks. The Nasdaq 100 Index has also experienced notable declines, which may be impacting SoFi's performance.

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