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Friday, January 23

Noteworthy macro moves today: Nikkei 225 Index (Japan) -1.0%. Oil (WTI) +1.8%. Copper +1.7%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Broadcom Inc (AVGO) -2.2%. 

Global equity markets are trading lower due to a mix of geopolitical tensions and disappointing earnings reports. Major North European investors are reassessing their exposure to U.S. assets because of rising geopolitical risks, particularly concerning U.S.-Iran relations and ongoing tensions in Ukraine, which have raised concerns about financial stability.

In economic data released today, Germany's HCOB Services PMI rose to 53.3, exceeding expectations and indicating growth in the service sector despite rising costs and employment concerns. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.75%, aligning with market expectations but reflecting ongoing caution regarding future monetary policy amid mixed economic signals.

Additionally, Canada's retail sales excluding autos surged by 1.7%, surpassing forecasts and impacting sentiment around potential rate cuts amidst geopolitical tensions. However, overall market reactions remain tempered as investors weigh these positive indicators against broader uncertainties affecting global markets.

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) [+2.9%]
Spot silver prices surged to an all-time high of $99.36 today, significantly affecting the solar manufacturing sector, where silver now accounts for over 29% of solar panel production costs. This is a stark increase from 3.4% in 2023, raising concerns about potential price increases for solar modules after a period of losses in the industry. Social media discussions highlighted these developments, with posts noting silver's rise above $98 per ounce and reaching a record high of $99.01 per ounce. Additionally, silver prices in China surpassed $110 per ounce, indicating an $11 premium over the U.S. price. The United States Copper Index Fund also increased, reflecting broader market movements that may influence iShares Silver Trust. Overall, silver's recent price movements are attributed to market demand concerns amid economic uncertainties affecting precious metals trading.

iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) [-0.9%]
Headline consumer prices in Japan rose 2.1% year-over-year in December, falling short of expectations and marking the first slowdown in four months. Core inflation decreased to 2.4%, matching estimates but down from the previous 3.0%. Monthly changes showed a decline of 0.1% for both headline and core CPI. The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.75%, citing vigilance regarding price risks associated with a weakening yen. Despite this hawkish stance, the yen initially weakened before a sudden spike. The Japanese stock market rebounded on January 22, with the Nikkei 225 index rising significantly, driven by gains in financial and technology shares. Nevertheless, the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) is currently experiencing a daily return of nearly -1%. The move in USD/JPY contributed positively to the ETF's performance, while major holdings such as HMC and SONY saw declines. The S&P 500 Index has also declined slightly, reflecting broader market sentiment that may influence EWJ.

INTC | -13.3% | -26.6B
Intel Corp | Semiconductors
Intel Corp reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $591 million, a significant increase from the $126 million loss recorded the previous year. The company’s revenue for the quarter was $13.67 billion, which fell short of expectations, alongside a disappointing first-quarter revenue guidance of $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion, below the consensus estimate of $12.49 billion. The forecast anticipates breakeven adjusted earnings per share, contrasting sharply with analyst expectations for profit. Intel's CFO highlighted ongoing supply shortages limiting the company's ability to meet demand, with improvements not expected until the second quarter. Following the earnings announcement, shares dropped significantly in after-hours trading, with Frankfurt-listed shares falling by 12.1%. Despite exceeding Q4 revenue expectations, the weak guidance overshadowed results and led to heightened concerns regarding Intel's market position and operational challenges.

COF | -4.4% | -3.8B
Capital One Financial Corp | Consumer Finance
Capital One Financial Corp's stock has dropped significantly following the fourth-quarter earnings report and the announcement of its acquisition of Brex for $5.15 billion. The company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.86 fell short of analyst expectations, while revenue reached $15.58 billion, surpassing forecasts. CEO Richard Fairbank expressed concerns about President Trump's proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates, warning it could restrict consumer access to credit and potentially lead to a recession. Despite reporting a year-over-year increase in net income, the figure declined compared to the previous quarter. The market reacted negatively, with shares declining approximately 5% in after-hours trading following the earnings release and acquisition news.

AMD | +2.6% | +11.1B
Advanced Micro Devices Inc | Semiconductors
Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) has received a Buy rating from a top analyst at KeyBanc, who has set a price target of 270 ahead of the company's fourth-quarter earnings report scheduled for January 2026. Social media discussions highlight expectations that AMD could achieve over 50% market share in CPUs by the end of 2026, driven by a potential CPU shortage allowing for significant price increases. Additionally, Ofi Invest Asset Management acquired over 900,000 shares valued at over $200 million, while Massachusetts Financial Services increased its holdings by more than 268%, adding over 415,000 shares. This morning, AMD's stock was reported to be up significantly, with users noting bullish trends and price movements amid broader market activity involving competitors like Nvidia and Intel.

ERIC | +8.2% | +2.6B
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson | Communications Equipment
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson reported its fourth-quarter earnings, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.27, surpassing the estimate of 0.23. Revenue reached SEK 69.3 billion (approximately 7.4 billion), exceeding the forecast of 7.0 billion. Despite a year-over-year sales decline of 5%, the company achieved organic sales growth of 6%. The board proposed an increased dividend of SEK 3.00 per share and authorized a SEK 15 billion stock buyback. These financial results and shareholder return initiatives are contributing to an 8.2% increase in Ericsson's stock price during the pre-market session.

BAH | +5.6% | +736.3M
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp | Research & Consulting Services
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp reported its fiscal third-quarter results, revealing an adjusted EPS of 1.77, exceeding analyst expectations of 1.29. Revenue declined 10.2% year-over-year to 2.6 billion, falling short of the consensus estimate of 2.73 billion. The adjusted EBITDA margin remained solid at 10.9%. The company noted a record backlog of 38 billion. Additionally, Booz Allen revised its fiscal 2026 guidance, narrowing its adjusted EPS outlook to a range of 5.95 to 6.15 and its revenue forecast to between 11.3 billion and 11.4 billion. Free cash flow expectations were adjusted downward to 825 million to 900 million from the previous range of 850 million to 950 million. Following the earnings announcement, Booz Allen's stock rose significantly, reflecting market reaction to the results.

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