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Wednesday, February 18

Noteworthy macro moves today: Oil (WTI) +2.6%. Gold +1.6%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) +2.1%. Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) +1.6%. Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) +1.4%. 

Global equity markets are trading higher following positive cues from U.S. stocks and a rebound in oil prices. Notably, the U.S. Durable Goods Orders released this morning fell by less than expected, with a decline of 1.4% compared to forecasts of a larger drop of 2%. This indicates some resilience in manufacturing despite ongoing economic uncertainties.

In the U.S., Housing Starts rose significantly by 6.2% month-on-month to an annualized rate of 1.404 million in December, surpassing expectations and marking the highest level since July. This increase reflects strong demand for new homes and suggests potential strength in the housing market as it rebounds from previous lows.

Additionally, UK consumer price inflation eased to a ten-month low of 3.0% in January, down from December's rate of 3.4%. This decline is contributing to expectations that the Bank of England may consider interest rate cuts as early as March, further influencing market sentiment across Europe and impacting currency movements against the dollar.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [+1.6%]
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has seen a price increase of 1.6% during the pre-market session. Recent Chinese market closures have created a buying opportunity in precious metals, potentially enhancing interest in gold investments. A 13F filing from Greenlight Capital revealed a reduction in their holdings of SPDR Gold Shares, reflecting a strategic shift but not necessarily negative sentiment towards gold itself. Additionally, geopolitical tensions are being discussed on social media, with concerns about instability in global markets that may drive interest in safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, gold prices have rebounded to trade above $4,900 an ounce, influenced by U.S.-brokered peace talks and rising oil prices, which contribute to market volatility. Notably, silver has also increased significantly, which may further correlate with the movement in GLD.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [+2.6%]
United States Oil Fund LP (USO) has seen its price increase by 2.6% in pre-market trading, coinciding with a broader surge in oil prices. This uptick is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly following the abrupt cessation of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, which has raised concerns over global energy supply. Additionally, escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran after failed negotiations are contributing to increased volatility in oil pricing dynamics. WTI crude has also shown significant gains, rising by approximately 2.75% shortly before market activity. These developments collectively foster a bullish environment for oil-related investments.

NVDA | +2.1% | +99.8B
NVIDIA Corp | Semiconductors
NVIDIA Corp has announced a multiyear strategic partnership with Meta Platforms, focusing on AI infrastructure development. This collaboration includes deploying millions of NVIDIA GPUs and CPUs in Meta's data centers to enhance AI training and inference capabilities. Mark Zuckerberg highlighted the importance of this partnership for improving AI across Meta's platforms. Concurrently, NVIDIA is expanding its presence in India, aligning with the national $1 billion AI initiative to boost computing capacity and develop local AI models. In related news, Morgan Stanley noted that NVIDIA is the most under-owned megacap tech stock compared to its S&P 500 weighting. Additionally, NVIDIA has reported a stake of 214.8 million shares in Intel while dissolving its stake in ARM Holdings. Following the partnership announcement, AMD shares fell, reflecting shifts in AI chip supply dynamics.

PANW | -7.6% | -3.7B
Palo Alto Networks Inc | Systems Software
Palo Alto Networks Inc reported its fiscal second-quarter results on February 17, achieving an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 1.03, exceeding estimates of 0.94, and revenues of 2.6 billion, slightly above expectations of 2.58 billion. Despite this, the company lowered its EPS guidance for fiscal year 2026 to a range of 3.65 to 3.70, down from prior estimates of 3.80 to 3.90. Analysts from Stifel, Needham, DA Davidson, Wolfe, and BMO Capital subsequently reduced their price targets significantly, reflecting concerns over the weaker guidance. The guidance for the third quarter EPS was also revised downward to between 0.78 and 0.80, below the consensus estimate of 0.92. Following these announcements, PANW stock experienced a notable decline in after-hours trading, attributed to the lowered expectations and apprehensions regarding the impact of the CyberArk acquisition on future performance metrics.

MRNA | +7.1% | +1.3B
Moderna Inc | Biotechnology
Moderna Inc. announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has accepted its biologics license application for mRNA-1010, an investigational seasonal influenza vaccine. This acceptance follows a prior Refusal-to-File letter, with the FDA setting a goal date of August 5, 2026, for the review process. The proposed regulatory pathway includes full approval for adults aged 50 to 64 and accelerated approval for those 65 and older, contingent upon a post-marketing study in older adults. If approved, mRNA-1010 would be available for the 2026/2027 flu season. The vaccine is also under review in Europe, Canada, and Australia, with additional submissions planned for 2026. Recent social media discussions highlighted the FDA's reversal on reviewing the flu vaccine application, with users expressing surprise and criticism regarding the agency's previous stance.

GRMN | +14.1% | +6.7B
Garmin Ltd | Consumer Electronics
Garmin Ltd reported robust fourth-quarter results, with a non-GAAP EPS of 2.79, surpassing the consensus estimate of 2.39. Revenue reached 2.125 billion, exceeding expectations of 2.01 billion. The company provided optimistic guidance for fiscal year 2026, projecting a pro forma EPS of 9.35 and revenue of 7.9 billion, both above analyst forecasts. Operating income was reported at 614.15 million, compared to 516.08 million in the prior year. Additionally, Garmin announced a proposed 17% increase in its dividend and a new share repurchase program valued at 500 million. Social media activity highlighted these earnings results, emphasizing the company's performance and guidance as exceeding expectations.

VRSK | +12.2% | +3.4B
Verisk Analytics Inc | Research & Consulting Services
Verisk Analytics Inc reported its fourth-quarter results today, revealing revenue of $779 million, surpassing the estimate of $773.6 million. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached $1.82, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.61. The adjusted EBITDA increased significantly to $437 million, compared to the estimate of $420.6 million. Additionally, the board approved an increase in the share repurchase authorization to $2.5 billion and declared an 11% increase in the quarterly dividend, now set at $0.50 per share, payable on March 31, 2026. Following the earnings announcement at 7:15 AM NY, the stock saw a notable increase of 10% within 40 minutes. The company also set its EPS guidance for FY 2026 at $7.45-$7.75 and revenue guidance at $3.2 billion.

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