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Thursday, February 13

Noteworthy macro moves today: US 10Y Treasury Bond +0.3%. Ethereum -2.6%. Bitcoin -1.8%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Tesla Inc (TSLA) +3.5%. 

Recent economic data releases have significantly influenced market sentiment. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for January showed a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, slightly above expectations, while core producer prices rose by 0.3%. This follows the release of higher-than-expected consumer price inflation figures that raised concerns about persistent inflation and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Geopolitical developments are also impacting markets as President Trump announced plans to initiate reciprocal tariffs amid ongoing negotiations with Russia regarding peace talks in Ukraine. These announcements contributed to fluctuations in risk assets, particularly benefiting European equities, which saw gains across major indices like Germany's DAX and France's CAC following optimism around potential resolutions to geopolitical tensions.

In addition, recent labor market indicators revealed that initial jobless claims fell more than expected, suggesting continued strength in employment despite rising inflation pressures; this has implications for future monetary policy decisions from central banks globally including the Fed and ECB amidst their respective challenges related to growth forecasts and interest rate adjustments.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [-1.8%]
Bitcoin's price has declined following an increase in U.S. consumer inflation, with the Consumer Price Index rising to 3% year-over-year. This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates longer, negatively impacting risk assets like Bitcoin. Concurrently, discussions on social media have highlighted Riot Platforms' new board appointments aimed at enhancing its focus on artificial intelligence and Bitcoin mining, potentially affecting mining profitability amid rising energy costs. Additionally, JPMorgan has indicated that Tether may need to sell Bitcoin to comply with proposed U.S. stablecoin regulations. Whale inflows to exchanges are reportedly at a five-year high, while Bitcoin remains relatively strong compared to altcoins, which have seen significant market cap declines. Ethereum has also experienced a notable drop, reflecting the broader sentiment affecting the cryptocurrency sector.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [-1.0%]
United States Oil Fund LP (USO) has seen a notable decline in its price, dropping significantly amid recent geopolitical developments. Following a productive call between President Trump and President Putin regarding negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices fell sharply. Concurrently, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by over four million barrels for the week ending February 7, adding further pressure on oil prices. Social media discussions reflect this sentiment, noting that WTI prices tumbled to near $71.00 and highlighting USO's worst trading day since before Thanksgiving. The overall atmosphere is marked by concerns over geopolitical stability and its potential impact on energy markets.

APP | +27.2% | +43.3B
Applovin Corp | Application Software
Applovin Corp announced a divestiture of its apps business for $900 million, which includes $500 million in cash and a minority equity stake in the private entity. During its quarterly earnings call, the company reported earnings per share of $1.73, exceeding analyst estimates of $1.25, alongside revenue of $1.372 billion, surpassing expectations of $1.264 billion. The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was reported at $848 million, exceeding the anticipated $762.5 million. For the first quarter, Applovin forecasted revenue between $1.355 billion and $1.385 billion, also above consensus estimates of $1.32 billion. Following the earnings report, discussions on social media highlighted a significant surge in Applovin's stock price, with analysts raising their price targets, reflecting positive sentiment regarding the company's performance and outlook.

HUBS | +5.3% | +2.2B
HubSpot Inc | Application Software
HubSpot Inc. reported its fourth-quarter financial results on February 12, 2025, achieving an adjusted EPS of 2.32, exceeding the consensus estimate of 2.19, and reflecting a year-over-year increase. Revenue for the quarter reached 703.17 million, surpassing the forecast of 673.32 million and marking a significant year-over-year growth. The company projects Q1 2025 adjusted EPS between 1.74 and 1.76, along with revenue expectations of 697 million to 699 million, both below analyst estimates. For the fiscal year 2025, HubSpot anticipates adjusted EPS between 9.11 and 9.19 and revenue ranging from 2.985 billion to 2.995 billion. Following these announcements, multiple analysts raised their price targets for HubSpot, with several firms now setting targets at 900 or higher. Social media discussions highlighted the strong Q4 earnings but raised concerns regarding the guidance for the upcoming quarter and fiscal year.

HOOD | +13.5% | +7.5B
Robinhood Markets Inc | Investment Banking & Brokerage
Robinhood Markets Inc reported strong fourth-quarter results, with earnings per share of $1.01, surpassing the analyst consensus of $0.42. Revenue reached $1.01 billion, exceeding expectations of $945.8 million and marking a 115% year-over-year increase. Transaction-based revenue surged significantly, driven by a remarkable rise in cryptocurrency revenue, which increased by 700% to $358 million. Assets under custody grew by 88% year-over-year to $193 billion, supported by net deposits of $16.1 billion. Following the earnings announcement, shares of Robinhood experienced substantial movement in after-hours trading, rising approximately 15%. Analysts responded positively, with Bernstein raising its price target for Robinhood from $51 to $105, while Mizuho and Piper Sandler also adjusted their targets upward. The company's user engagement improved markedly, as evidenced by an 86% increase in Gold subscribers to 2.6 million.

DDOG | -10.2% | -4.5B
Datadog Inc | Application Software
Datadog Inc. reported fourth-quarter earnings that included an adjusted EPS of $0.49, exceeding the $0.43 estimate, and revenue of $738 million, surpassing the expected $714 million. Despite these positive results, the company's guidance for fiscal year 2025 disappointed analysts, projecting adjusted EPS between $1.65 and $1.70 against a consensus of $1.98, and revenue between $3.175 billion and $3.195 billion versus a forecast of $3.24 billion. For Q1 2025, Datadog anticipates adjusted EPS of $0.41 to $0.43, below the consensus estimate of $0.46. Following this news, shares of Datadog experienced a significant decline in premarket trading, dropping by over 10%. Social media discussions highlighted both the earnings beat and concerns regarding the weaker guidance, reflecting mixed sentiment among users.

CSCO | +6.2% | +16.6B
Cisco Systems Inc | Communications Equipment
Cisco Systems Inc reported strong second-quarter results, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 0.94, surpassing analyst expectations of 0.91. Revenue reached 14 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of 13.87 billion. The company raised its fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance to between 56 billion and 56.5 billion, up from a prior forecast of 55.3 billion to 56.3 billion. Cisco also forecasted third-quarter adjusted EPS between 0.90 and 0.92, with revenue ranging from 13.9 billion to 14.1 billion. Additionally, the firm announced a 2.5% increase in its quarterly dividend to 0.41 per share and a significant boost to its stock repurchase program, now totaling approximately 17 billion in remaining authorization. This financial performance reflects heightened demand for AI infrastructure solutions, with over 700 million in AI orders received in the last six months.

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