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Wednesday, February 4

Noteworthy macro moves today: Gold +2.1%. USD/JPY +0.5%. Silver +7.0%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) +9.0%. 

Global equity markets are trading mixed as investors react to a series of economic data releases and geopolitical tensions. In the U.S., the ADP Employment Change report released today showed that private sector employment increased by only 22,000 jobs in January, significantly below expectations of approximately 48,000 jobs. This disappointing figure has raised concerns about ongoing labor market challenges and contributed to a cautious sentiment among investors.

In Europe, equity indices are generally higher ahead of key inflation data releases from the Eurozone. The flash estimate for Eurozone inflation indicated a decrease to 1.7% year-on-year in January from December's rate of 2.0%, aligning with market expectations but sparking caution regarding economic momentum and future monetary policy implications. Additionally, the HCOB Composite PMI for Germany rose to 52.1 in January, indicating continued expansion despite some underlying weaknesses.

Meanwhile, gold prices have surged by over 2%, driven by safe-haven demand amid rising geopolitical tensions involving Iran and ongoing concerns about global economic stability. The U.S.-Iran situation has heightened investor anxiety, contributing to increased interest in precious metals as a protective asset during uncertain times.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [+2.1%]
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has experienced a price increase of 2.1%, coinciding with a notable rebound in gold prices, which rose significantly to over $5,000 per ounce. This surge in gold is attributed to geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, alongside concerns regarding U.S. monetary policy stability amid leadership changes at the Federal Reserve. Additionally, dip buying activity in Asia has further supported the precious metals market. Social media discussions highlighted a substantial order for GLD, reflecting heightened activity around the fund. Meanwhile, silver prices have surged, reinforcing the correlation between these precious metals and contributing to GLD's performance. Goldman Sachs has also projected an increased gold price forecast for December 2026, adding to the positive sentiment surrounding gold investments.

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) [+6.6%]
iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has risen significantly in pre-market trading, reflecting a broader surge in silver prices, which have increased notably following a substantial decline earlier this year. March silver prices have jumped, recovering from a prior sharp drop that resulted in a significant market contraction. Social media discussions highlight SLV's recent performance, noting it has rebounded above key support levels and achieved considerable gains over a short period. Additionally, geopolitical tensions have driven demand for safe-haven assets like silver, while easing inflation in various regions has positively influenced market sentiment towards precious metals. Gold prices have also seen an increase, which typically correlates with movements in silver. Recent macroeconomic data has shown mixed signals, with mortgage rates declining but applications falling sharply, contributing to volatility in SLV's trading environment.

LITE | +15.1% | +5.1B
Lumentum Holdings Inc | Communications Equipment
Lumentum Holdings reported its Q2 results on February 3, 2026, achieving an adjusted EPS of 1.67, exceeding the consensus estimate of 1.23 by 36%. Revenue for the quarter reached 665.5 million, surpassing expectations of 646.7 million, and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 263.3 million. The company provided optimistic guidance for Q3, projecting earnings between 2.15 and 2.35 per share and revenue of 780 million to 830 million, both above analyst estimates. Following these announcements, several analysts raised their price targets significantly, with recent targets reaching as high as 580. Social media discussions highlighted the earnings beat and robust guidance, contributing to a notable increase in Lumentum's share price, which rose approximately 15.2% in pre-market trading.

LLY | +8.5% | +87.8B
Eli Lilly and Co | Pharmaceuticals
Eli Lilly and Co reported its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results, achieving an adjusted EPS of 7.54, surpassing the estimate of 6.67, and total sales of 19.3 billion, exceeding expectations of 17.96 billion. The company’s net income rose to 6.8 billion from 4.8 billion year-over-year. For fiscal year 2026, Eli Lilly projects an adjusted EPS between 33.50 and 35.00, above the consensus estimate of 33.23, and anticipates revenue ranging from 80 billion to 83 billion, compared to a forecast of 77.62 billion. Strong demand for its weight-loss and diabetes drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, is expected to alleviate pricing pressures in the U.S., its largest market. Following this earnings announcement, shares have risen nearly 9% in pre-market trading.

BSX | -9.2% | -11.3B
Boston Scientific Corp | Health Care Equipment
Boston Scientific Corp's stock fell significantly in pre-market trading, declining by over 9% following the release of its fourth-quarter results and initial fiscal year 2026 guidance. The company reported an adjusted EPS of $0.80, an increase from $0.70 last year, and net income rose to $672 million from $566 million. Net sales reached $5.29 billion, slightly exceeding estimates of $5.28 billion, with a year-over-year revenue increase of 15.9%. Despite these positive figures, the guidance for fiscal year 2026 projected adjusted EPS between $3.43 and $3.49, which fell short of analyst expectations. Additionally, concerns emerged from a recent FDA warning regarding certain medical devices, contributing to the negative market reaction.

GSK | +4.3% | +9.9B
GSK plc | Pharmaceuticals
GSK plc reported strong Q4 results, with core EPS at 25.5p, reflecting a 14% increase at constant exchange rates. Sales reached £8.6 billion, up 6% on an actual basis and 8% at constant rates. The adjusted operating profit of £1.634 billion surpassed estimates. The company projects core EPS growth of 7% to 9% for FY26, alongside turnover growth of 3% to 5%. GSK declared a fourth interim dividend of 18p per share for Q4 2025, with expectations of a total dividend of 70p for FY26. Additionally, GSK's EPS guidance for FY2026 is set between $4.9 and $5.0, with revenue guidance of $44.8 billion to $45.6 billion. Following the earnings report and dividend announcement, GSK's stock rose by approximately 4%.

AMD | -9.7% | -34.3B
Advanced Micro Devices Inc | Semiconductors
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. is experiencing notable market challenges, with shares declining approximately 9% in pre-market trading today. CEO Lisa Su announced a limited revenue outlook for China, projecting only $100 million for Q1 due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. export licenses for advanced AI chips. This cautious guidance follows a strong Q4 earnings report, which included revenues of $10.27 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.53 per share, both exceeding Wall Street expectations. Despite reporting a record data center revenue of $5.4 billion—reflecting a 39% year-over-year increase—the stock faced downward pressure after-hours, attributed to disappointing Q1 revenue guidance projected between $9.5 billion and $10.1 billion. Social media discussions highlighted confusion over the stock's poor performance despite robust earnings, with concerns about future outlook contributing to the negative sentiment.

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