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Tuesday, November 12

Some of the largest macro moves in the market today include: Bitcoin -3.4%. Ethereum -3.9%. Copper -1.5%. Some of the largest moves among US mega-cap stocks include: Tesla Inc (TSLA) -2.5%. 

Recent market movements are significantly influenced by the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election, where Donald Trump's return to office has sparked optimism among investors regarding potential fiscal policies such as tax cuts and deregulation. This sentiment is reflected in a notable rally across major equity indices, with Bitcoin reaching record highs amid increased interest from both retail and institutional investors.

In economic data releases today, UK labor statistics revealed mixed results; while unemployment rose unexpectedly to 4.3%, employment figures showed an increase of 220 thousand jobs over the three months ending September 2024. Additionally, Germany's inflation rate was confirmed at a three-month high of 2% for October, which may affect future monetary policy discussions within Europe amidst concerns about rising prices impacting consumer confidence.

Global markets have reacted cautiously due to fears surrounding proposed tariff increases under Trump’s administration that could strain trade relations with China and impact sectors reliant on Chinese manufacturing like technology firms including Apple. The DXY dollar index continues its upward trend following these developments alongside fluctuating bond yields reflecting investor positioning ahead of upcoming key economic indicators set for release this week.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [-3.9%]
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has experienced a decline of 3.9% since Monday, currently priced at approximately $89,500. This drop follows a significant rally, where Bitcoin surged nearly 30% post-election amid bullish sentiment linked to Donald Trump's presidential victory and his pro-crypto stance. Social media highlights include Bitcoin surpassing silver in value and MicroStrategy's acquisition of 27,200 BTC. Additionally, BlackRock's IBIT volume has exceeded $4.4 billion, coinciding with a surge in Bitcoin's price as market optimism increased, resulting in a decline of the euro and yuan. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH/USD) has dropped significantly by 3.56%, reflecting broader market sentiment that appears to influence Bitcoin's recent price action.

iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) [-2.7%]
The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) has seen a significant decline of 2.7% in premarket trading, reflecting broader market pressures amid geopolitical tensions. Concerns regarding the potential appointment of Senator Marco Rubio as U.S. Secretary of State have emerged, suggesting a tougher stance on trade with China. This sentiment is echoed in the performance of Chinese ADRs, with notable declines in companies such as Alibaba, JD.com, and PDD Holdings. Additionally, macroeconomic factors contribute to negative sentiment, with proposed tariffs on Chinese imports potentially impacting the economy and manufacturing sector. The People's Bank of China is taking measures to maintain the yuan exchange rate amid these pressures. In terms of FXI's holdings, JD and LI experienced significant drops, contributing negatively to the ETF's overall performance. The decline in the AUD/USD currency pair may also reflect broader market sentiment affecting Chinese equities.

LYV | +5.7% | +1.7B
Live Nation Entertainment Inc | Movies & Entertainment
Live Nation Entertainment Inc reported third-quarter earnings on November 11, 2024, revealing a GAAP EPS of 1.66, aligning with analyst expectations, while sales reached 7.651 billion, falling short of the anticipated 7.774 billion. The adjusted operating income was 909.8 million, surpassing the expected 856.6 million. Despite a year-over-year sales decline of 6.15%, ticket sales for 2024 concerts increased by 3%, with 144 million tickets sold through October. Following these results, shares rose by approximately 4.3% in after-hours trading, driven by positive sentiment around the company's concert pipeline and growing sponsorship commitments. Oppenheimer subsequently raised its price target on Live Nation to 155 from 120, maintaining an outperform rating. Ten minutes after the earnings announcement, shares had moved up by about 10%.

TSN | +6.1% | +1.3B
Tyson Foods Inc | Packaged Foods & Meats
Tyson Foods reported its fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results, achieving an adjusted earnings per share of 0.92, exceeding the consensus estimate of 0.69 by 33.33%. Sales reached 13.565 billion, surpassing expectations of 13.392 billion and marking a year-over-year increase of 1.63%. The board announced a quarterly dividend increase to 0.50 per share for Class A stock, effective November 8, 2024, and payable on December 13, 2024. For fiscal 2025, Tyson expects adjusted operating income between 1.8 billion and 2.2 billion, with a projected slight decline in sales of 1% to flat compared to fiscal 2024 levels. Following the earnings announcement at 7:30 AM NY time, Tyson's stock price surged significantly, reflecting the positive reception of its results.

HD | +1.9%| +7.8B
Home Depot Inc | Home Improvement Retail
Home Depot Inc reported its third-quarter results on November 12, 2024, with a net income of $3.6 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.67, down from $3.81 the previous year. Adjusted EPS was $3.78, exceeding the consensus estimate of $3.64. Total sales reached $40.22 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $39.32 billion and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.6%. Comparable sales decreased by 1.3%, an improvement over the anticipated decline of 3.1%. The company updated its fiscal 2024 guidance, projecting a 4% increase in total sales and a decline of approximately 2.5% in comparable sales, better than earlier forecasts. Additionally, Home Depot set its EPS guidance for fiscal 2024 at $15.1 and raised its revenue guidance to $158.8 billion from the previous range of $156.5 billion to $158 billion.

SHOP | +15.4%| +20.6B
Shopify Inc | Internet Services & Infrastructure
Shopify Inc reported its Q3 2024 results, revealing revenue of $2.16 billion, surpassing estimates and marking a 26% year-over-year increase. Monthly recurring revenue reached $175 million, exceeding projections. Merchant Solutions revenue was $1.55 billion, also above expectations. Gross merchandise volume increased by 24% to $69.72 billion, outperforming the anticipated figures. The company reported earnings per share of $0.64, significantly higher than the expected $0.27. Following the earnings announcement, Shopify shares experienced a notable rise in premarket trading, reflecting a strong market reaction. For Q4 2024, Shopify anticipates revenue growth in the mid-to-high twenties percentage range year-over-year, with gross profit growth expected to align closely with Q3's performance. Operating expenses are forecasted to be 32% to 33% of revenues.

TSLA | -2.3% | -25.5B
Tesla Inc | Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla Inc. is experiencing challenges as it approaches the end of the year, with potential declines in full-year sales despite expectations for record deliveries in the fourth quarter. Researcher Troy Teslike notes that Tesla must deliver over 514,926 vehicles this quarter to exceed last year's total of nearly 1.81 million. Although fourth-quarter deliveries are anticipated to surpass the previous year's record, current data suggests this may be difficult to achieve. Additionally, Tesla's sales in Europe have dropped, with a reported decline in new car registrations for the year-to-date period compared to last year. To stimulate sales, the company is offering promotional incentives, including a year of free Supercharging in Europe. Concurrently, the Nasdaq 100 Index has decreased slightly, which may also be influencing Tesla's recent price drop of 2.3%.

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