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Thursday, June 12

Noteworthy macro moves today: US Dollar Index -0.9%. US 10Y Treasury Bond +0.4%. US 2Y Treasury Bond +0.1%. 

Recent economic data releases have highlighted a concerning trend in the U.S. economy, with producer prices rising only 0.1% month-over-month for May, falling short of expectations and indicating potential softening inflation pressures. Additionally, initial jobless claims remained steady at 248,000—higher than anticipated—and continuing claims surged to their highest level since November 2021. This combination suggests increasing challenges within the labor market amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

Geopolitical tensions are also significantly influencing market sentiment; escalating concerns regarding military actions between Israel and Iran have prompted safe-haven flows into gold as investors seek stability amidst risk aversion. Concurrently, President Trump's comments about setting unilateral tariffs on trading partners further exacerbate trade uncertainties that weigh heavily on global markets.

In response to these developments, major equity indices such as the S&P 500 and DAX experienced declines while bond yields fell across various maturities due to heightened demand for safer assets like government bonds amid fears surrounding both geopolitical risks and domestic economic indicators pointing towards slower growth ahead.

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) [-0.7%]
The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) has experienced a decline, coinciding with a broader downturn in the U.S. Dollar Index, which fell significantly amid rising geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data showed lower-than-expected growth, with month-over-month figures at 0.1%, below the anticipated 0.2%. This muted response reflects ongoing inflation concerns, as the Core PPI also missed expectations. Initial jobless claims remained steady at 248,000, suggesting potential softening in the labor market. Additionally, President Trump's announcement of new tariffs if trade agreements are not reached by July 9 has further contributed to uncertainty in global trade relations. The overall sentiment has prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets, such as gold, which has seen increased demand from central banks amid concerns over reserve currency stability.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [+1.1%]
Gold has recently surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, as noted in the European Central Bank's 2025 annual review. This shift is linked to increased central bank purchases and record gold prices, which have reached significant levels. Currently, gold prices are experiencing upward momentum, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts have emerged following softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Additionally, central banks have added over 1,000 tons of gold annually over the past three years, a marked increase compared to the previous decade. Concurrently, the US 2Y Treasury Bond has seen a modest increase, reflecting broader market sentiment historically correlated with gold prices.

ORCL | +8.2% | +43.2B
Oracle Corp | Systems Software
Oracle Corp reported robust fourth-quarter results, with total revenue reaching $15.9 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $15.58 billion and reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.70, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.64. The company's cloud revenue was notably strong at $6.7 billion, up 27% year-over-year, while cloud infrastructure revenue surged by 52%. Remaining performance obligations totaled $138 billion, marking a 41% year-over-year increase. Following these announcements, Oracle raised its fiscal year 2026 revenue outlook to over $67 billion, projecting total cloud revenue growth to exceed 40%. CEO Safra Catz expressed optimism for fiscal year 2026, anticipating even higher growth rates. In after-hours trading, Oracle shares surged approximately 8%.

BA | -7.5% | -9.1B
Boeing Co | Aerospace & Defense
Boeing Co's shares dropped significantly in pre-market trading, following a tragic incident involving an Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner that crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad, India, en route to London. The aircraft, carrying 242 passengers, reportedly lost signal shortly after departure and has been confirmed as the first fatal crash for this model. The incident has led to widespread reactions on social media, with reports of Boeing's stock declining by up to 8.2%. Emergency teams have been dispatched to the crash site, and Air India is coordinating with authorities while providing support to those affected. The airport where the crash occurred is currently non-operational.

TSLA | -1.8% | -18.8B
Tesla Inc | Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla Inc. has experienced a decline of 1.8%, aligning with broader market trends, which are also moving lower. Additionally, President Trump is poised to sign resolutions that may eliminate California's stringent electric vehicle regulations, potentially affecting Tesla's operations. CEO Elon Musk has voiced concerns over delays in obtaining approval for the company's Full Self-Driving technology from European authorities. Social media sentiment around Tesla is mixed, with discussions on the anticipated robotaxi launch and external factors influencing perceptions of the electric vehicle market.

NVDA | -1.4% | -47.3B
NVIDIA Corp | Semiconductors
NVIDIA Corp's stock has declined by 1.4%, coinciding with a broader market downturn. This decline is mirrored by the Nasdaq 100 Index, which has also dropped significantly. In recent developments, Xpeng has claimed that its self-designed Turing processors outperform those of NVIDIA, challenging the company's position in the semiconductor sector. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang remarked that U.S. technology remains a generation ahead of China's, amid competitive tensions in the industry. Additionally, NVIDIA outlined its strategic vision at GTC Paris, projecting over $1.5 trillion in global AI infrastructure spending and $1 trillion for sovereign AI initiatives, while noting it does not expect revenue from China, which could represent a potential upside of $30 to $40 billion.

XPEV | -2.6% | -975.5M
Xpeng Inc | Automobile Manufacturers
Xpeng Inc. has seen a notable decline in its stock price, aligning with broader market trends. The company recently announced the launch of its G6 and G9 Ultra Smart SUVs for the European market, featuring significant technological upgrades and ultra-fast charging capabilities. Additionally, Xpeng is developing advanced chips for Volkswagen vehicles, claiming its self-designed Turing processors outperform those from NVIDIA. Despite these advancements, Xpeng's stock has dropped significantly, alongside other Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers such as NIO and BYD. This decline appears to be influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties affecting the market, including the U.S.-China trade relationship and recent disappointing economic data from the UK.

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