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Monday, April 13

Noteworthy macro moves today: Oil (WTI) +8.4%. DAX 30 Index (Germany) -1.7%. Oil (Brent) +7.4%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) -1.8%. Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) +1.7%. Meta Platforms Inc (META) -1.3%. 

Global equity markets are trading lower following heightened geopolitical tensions after the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks over the weekend, which has led to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the U.S. Navy. This development has raised concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies and inflationary pressures, contributing to declines across major indices, particularly in Europe where the DAX is down significantly.

In economic news, Canada's building permits fell by 8.4% month-over-month in February, indicating weakened construction intentions across sectors and adding to concerns about economic growth amid rising geopolitical risks. This data was released this morning and reflects broader uncertainties affecting investor sentiment.

Additionally, oil prices have surged sharply today with WTI up by 8.4%, driven by fears surrounding supply disruptions due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. The significant rise in oil prices is likely to exacerbate inflation concerns and could influence central bank policies moving forward as they navigate these challenges amidst a volatile market environment.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [+7.5%]
U.S. crude oil futures surged nearly 8% following President Trump's announcement of a blockade on all vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports, effective April 13. This blockade, stemming from stalled nuclear negotiations with Iran, is projected to threaten 1.7 to 2 million barrels per day of Iranian crude exports, raising concerns about global supply disruptions. In the wake of these geopolitical developments, the United States Oil Fund LP (USO) gained 7% in pre-market trading. This movement aligns with broader increases in oil-related equities as the market reacts to heightened tensions and the potential for reduced oil supply globally.

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) [+1.8%]
Saudi Arabia has fully restored its East-West pipeline to peak throughput of approximately 7 million barrels daily, following disruptions from recent geopolitical tensions. This restoration aligns with a significant drop in oil prices, as WTI and Brent crude have fallen sharply after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and Iran's reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Saudi energy ministry confirmed that infrastructure repairs were completed, allowing for regular operations. This backdrop coincides with a rally in U.S. equities, as the geopolitical premium on energy prices has diminished, contributing to positive sentiment in energy-linked equities. Despite this broader context, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is trading lower in pre-market hours, reflecting a complex interplay of market dynamics.

RVMD | +33.9% | +7.2B
Revolution Medicines Inc | Biotechnology
Revolution Medicines Inc. announced that its Phase 3 RASolute 302 trial of daraxonrasib met both primary and secondary survival endpoints in patients with metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. The trial revealed a median overall survival of 13.2 months for daraxonrasib, compared to 6.7 months for standard chemotherapy, with a hazard ratio of 0.40 (p < 0.0001). The drug was generally well tolerated, and the company plans to submit these results to global regulatory authorities, including the FDA. This pivotal data has resulted in a notable premarket share increase of approximately 33.5%. Social media discussions echoed this positive news, highlighting the unprecedented nature of the results for this challenging cancer indication and speculating on potential acquisition interest from larger pharmaceutical companies.

GS | -4.5% | -12.5B
Goldman Sachs Group Inc | Investment Banking & Brokerage
Goldman Sachs Group Inc reported Q1 earnings this morning, revealing an EPS of $17.55 and net revenues of $17.23 billion, both surpassing analyst expectations. Despite these strong results, the company's shares fell in pre-market trading, continuing a downward trend with a noted drop of approximately -4.1% following the announcement. Notably, while equities revenue was robust at $5.33 billion, FICC sales and trading revenue fell short at $4.01 billion, contributing to concerns among investors. Additionally, the provision for credit losses was recorded at $315 million. Social media discussions indicated that the stock reached a low of 872.79 after the earnings report, highlighting mixed reactions to the overall performance and specific revenue shortfalls.

FAST | -3.5% | -962.8M
Fastenal Co | Trading Companies & Distributors
Fastenal Co reported its first-quarter earnings, revealing adjusted earnings per share of $0.30 and revenue of $2.2 billion, both matching analyst expectations. Despite this alignment with consensus estimates and a year-over-year revenue increase of 12.4%, the stock has declined significantly, attributed to concerns over moderating growth trends and margin pressures. Operating margin improved slightly to 20.3%, yet gross margin decreased to 44.6%, impacted by unfavorable price/cost dynamics and rising transportation costs. The company also outlined plans for capital investments between $310 million and $330 million in 2026 to enhance operational efficiency. In pre-market trading, shares have dropped notably, reflecting broader market sentiment as the Dow Jones Index has also declined, contributing to Fastenal's performance amidst a backdrop of rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions.

BBY | -4.2% | -544.2M
Best Buy Co Inc | Computer & Electronics Retail
Best Buy Co Inc is experiencing significant downward pressure following a downgrade from Goldman Sachs, which has shifted its rating from Neutral to Sell. This change reflects analysts' concerns regarding the company's future performance, particularly in light of anticipated challenges beyond the first quarter. Despite potential short-term benefits from increased same-store sales due to a surge in personal computer demand, rising memory costs are expected to negatively impact pricing and margins. Additionally, the Computer & Electronics Retail sub-sector is also moving lower, contributing to Best Buy's decline. Overall, the stock is trading significantly lower this morning, with a notable drop observed since Friday's close, aligning with broader market sentiment reflected in the decline of the Russell 2000 Index.

ON | +3.6% | +1.1B
ON Semiconductor Corp | Semiconductors
ON Semiconductor Corp received an upgrade from Neutral to Buy by BOFA Securities, with the price target raised from 70.00 to 85.00. This upgrade, published approximately 24 hours ago, likely contributed to the positive sentiment surrounding the stock today. Meanwhile, discussions on social media highlighted geopolitical events affecting market sentiment, particularly a significant rise in oil prices due to the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports. This spike in oil prices is noted as a potential factor influencing broader market dynamics, including semiconductor stocks like ON. Additionally, the Indian rupee's notable decline amid rising oil prices could impact companies reliant on imports, including those in the semiconductor sector. Despite the broader market's downward movement, ON Semiconductor is trading higher in pre-market hours, reflecting these developments.

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