Oil Surges on Middle East Tensions, Lifting USO and XLE as Equities Trade Mixed | MarketReader Minute

Global equity markets show mixed performance as Asian indices rise while U.S. and European stocks decline ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision, amid escalating geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices.

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Wednesday, July 29

Noteworthy macro moves today: Oil (WTI) +6.2%. Hang Seng 50 Index (China) +2.2%. Oil (Brent) +5.7%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) +2.3%. Visa Inc (V) -2.0%. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock (SPCX) -1.2%.

Global equity indices are trading mixed, with Asian markets showing strength while U.S. and European indices are lower. The Hang Seng 50 Index in China is up by 2.2%, reflecting positive sentiment in the region, while the Nikkei 225 has declined amid ongoing concerns over technology valuations and geopolitical tensions.

In the U.S., equity indices are generally lower as investors await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later today, with expectations leaning towards rates remaining unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. Recent economic data released today showed the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate climbed to a one-year high of 6.76%, contributing to a decline in mortgage applications by 6.4%, indicating ongoing challenges in housing demand due to elevated borrowing costs.

Geopolitical tensions have escalated following joint U.S.-Saudi strikes on Iran-backed militia targets, which have contributed to rising oil prices; WTI crude is up by approximately 6.2%. This situation has heightened concerns about energy supply disruptions and inflationary pressures that may influence future monetary policy decisions from central banks.

Additionally, recent data from the UK indicates stronger-than-expected mortgage lending at £7.73 billion for June, exceeding forecasts despite rising interest rates impacting affordability concerns among borrowers. This suggests resilience in household financial behavior amidst challenging economic conditions influenced by inflation and geopolitical factors.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [+6.7%]
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven United States Oil Fund LP sharply higher in pre-market trading. President Trump's announcement of impending U.S. strikes against Iran in response to attacks on U.S. targets has intensified concerns over energy supply disruptions. Concurrently, WTI crude prices have rebounded significantly, now trading at $82.59 per barrel, influenced by military actions and threats from Yemen's Houthi group regarding commercial shipping fees. This combination of rising oil prices and escalating military conflict appears to have positively impacted the fund's performance today.

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) [+2.3%]
Oil prices surged nearly 4% today due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as U.S. and Saudi forces conducted strikes against Iran-backed targets, prompting retaliation from Tehran. This situation has raised concerns about potential disruptions to energy supplies, contributing to the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund's upward movement. The fund is gaining as significant contributors include ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips, with returns of 2.35%, 2.1%, and 2.8%, respectively. The overall sentiment surrounding crude oil pricing dynamics is positively influencing energy equities within the fund.

iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) [-2.1%]
South Korea's financial markets are under considerable strain, with the Kospi Index experiencing a significant drop of 6% earlier today. This decline follows a global selloff in technology stocks and has prompted authorities to schedule an emergency market meeting for Wednesday evening. The negative sentiment surrounding the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF is further exacerbated by geopolitical tensions following missile attacks by Iran on U.S. bases, raising concerns about regional stability. The ETF is currently trading lower during pre-market hours, reflecting broader market declines and contributing to its negative performance. Notably, SK Telecom, a key holding, has also seen a decline of 1.46%.

VRT | -11.5% | -10.3B
Vertiv Holdings Co | Industrials

Vertiv Holdings Co reported second-quarter results that included an adjusted EPS of $1.52, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.42. However, net sales of $3.27 billion fell short of expectations of $3.38 billion, despite an 18% year-over-year increase. This revenue miss has led to a significant decline in the stock price during pre-market trading, with shares down sharply. The company raised its full-year guidance for adjusted EPS to a range of $6.65 to $6.75, but this did not alleviate market concerns regarding the revenue shortfall. Analysts noted that the revenue miss was attributed to timing factors rather than demand weakness. As a result, Vertiv Holdings Co is experiencing notable downward pressure in pre-market hours, reflecting a continuation of lower closes observed over recent sessions.

HESAY | -13.9% | -2.5B
Hermes International SCA | Consumer Discretionary

Hermes International SCA's stock is sharply lower in pre-market trading following comments from its CEO about subdued consumer spending in France and a lack of improvement in the Chinese market. The CFO highlighted that ongoing conflict in the Middle East is contributing to growth challenges, impacting overall growth by an estimated 1.5 percentage points. While the company's second-quarter revenue of EUR 4.09 billion slightly exceeded consensus estimates, it also revealed a significant negative impact of over EUR 360 million from currency fluctuations. Additionally, sales in the Middle East declined by 4%, reflecting regional difficulties. This context underscores the pressures facing Hermes International as it navigates current market conditions.

LOGI | -11.0% | -1.7B
Logitech International SA | Information Technology

Logitech International SA is facing notable downward pressure following its first-quarter earnings announcement. The company reported sales of $1.23 billion, a 7% increase year-over-year, but below expectations for future growth. Analysts have raised concerns about a significant incident at a semiconductor supplier's factory, which is projected to impact revenues by approximately $200 million in the upcoming quarter. Additionally, Barclays lowered its price target for Logitech from $105 to $101 while maintaining an Equalweight rating. These factors have contributed to the stock's decline during pre-market hours. Earlier in the session, shares reached a high before pulling back significantly, reflecting a sharp shift from previous performance.

CSGP | -14.4% | -1.5B
CoStar Group Inc | Real Estate

CoStar Group Inc's stock is declining in pre-market trading following multiple analyst downgrades. KBW lowered its rating to Market Perform, citing concerns over delays in the recovery of bookings. Citizens analyst Andrew Boone reduced the price target from $44 to $35 while maintaining a Market Outperform rating. Additionally, William Blair and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods adjusted their ratings down to target prices of $29 and $33, respectively. These downgrades reflect growing caution regarding CoStar's near-term performance outlook. The stock had previously fallen 11% in after-hours trading after the company reported Q2 2026 earnings that slightly missed revenue estimates, despite an increase in adjusted EPS and significant year-over-year growth in net income.

MANH | +11.4% | +1.3B
Manhattan Associates Inc | Information Technology

Citi analyst George Kurosawa raised the price target for Manhattan Associates Inc to $203.00 from $193.00, maintaining a Buy rating. Baird analyst Joe Vruwink also increased his price target to $218.00 from $186.00, supporting an Outperform rating. This follows a strong second-quarter earnings report in which the company reported adjusted EPS of $1.39, exceeding estimates of $1.32, and revenue of $297.8 million, surpassing expectations. The combination of these upgraded price targets and robust earnings has positively influenced investor sentiment, contributing to shares trading sharply higher during pre-market hours on Wednesday.

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