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Friday, June 13

Noteworthy macro moves today: Oil (WTI) +6.5%. Gold +1.4%. Ethereum -3.6%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) +3.1%. Visa Inc (V) -2.2%. Mastercard Inc (MA) -2.0%. 

The market is currently reacting to heightened geopolitical tensions following Israel's military strikes on Iran, which have significantly impacted oil prices and investor sentiment. Oil prices initially surged over 9%, reaching their highest levels in nearly five months as concerns about potential supply disruptions escalated due to the conflict. This situation has led investors toward safe-haven assets like gold, which also saw a notable increase of around 1% amid fears of further escalation.

In economic data releases today, U.S. consumer sentiment figures are anticipated with expectations for an improvement from May’s reading; however, analysts caution that ongoing geopolitical risks may overshadow these results and negatively influence broader market reactions. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be closely monitored by traders looking for insights into future spending trends amidst rising inflationary pressures linked to increased energy costs.

Additionally, recent comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest they remain cautious regarding interest rate adjustments. Given current macroeconomic uncertainties exacerbated by international conflicts and trade dynamics involving tariffs between major economies such as the U.S., China, Canada, and Mexico. As markets brace for possible volatility ahead of upcoming central bank meetings next week—including those scheduled at both the Fed and Bank of Japan—investors appear increasingly risk-averse while seeking refuge in more stable asset classes.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [+7.2%]
Crude oil prices have surged significantly due to escalating geopolitical tensions following Israel's airstrikes on Iran, raising concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading approximately 9% higher, reaching a price point reflective of this volatility. Social media discussions indicate that oil prices jumped over 7% in response to these developments, with reports noting that WTI futures surged as much as 13%, marking the largest single-day gains in nearly five years. In the context of these dynamics, the United States Oil Fund LP is experiencing upward momentum, mirroring the broader market reactions to the heightened uncertainty surrounding oil supply.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) [+1.2%]
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has seen an increase of 1.2% in pre-market trading on Friday, driven by a surge in gold prices, which have surpassed $3,400 per ounce amid escalating geopolitical tensions following Israel's military strikes on Iran. This conflict has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply and broader market instability rise. Social media discussions reflect significant price movements, with spot gold prices noted to have jumped nearly 1% to approximately $3,416.73 per ounce on October 9th, with intraday fluctuations exceeding $50. Concurrently, the U.S. Dollar has strengthened, reflecting increased risk aversion among market participants.

ADBE | -4.7% | -8.2B
Adobe Inc | Application Software
Adobe Inc's shares have dropped significantly following the release of its second-quarter financial results. The company reported revenue of $5.87 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $5.79 billion, and an adjusted earnings per share of $5.06, surpassing the consensus estimate of $4.96. Despite these positive figures, analysts reacted with mixed adjustments to price targets, with Mizuho lowering its target from $575 to $530 and Oppenheimer reducing its target from $530 to $500. Adobe also raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to between $23.50 billion and $23.60 billion, reflecting strong operational performance. However, sentiment shifted negatively in pre-market trading, with shares declining by approximately 2%. This decline coincided with broader market risk-off sentiment due to geopolitical tensions and concerns about Adobe's growth trajectory in the AI sector.

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) [+3.1%, +15.6B]
Integrated Oil & Gas
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) is experiencing a price increase, moving higher alongside the Integrated Oil & Gas sector. This upward movement is further supported by significant gains in correlated assets, including Ring Energy Inc, which has surged notably, and Brent crude oil prices, which have also risen substantially. These developments reflect broader market dynamics that typically align with Exxon Mobil's performance in the energy sector.

RDDT | -2.6% | -489.5M
Reddit Inc | Interactive Media & Services
In the past 14 hours, 25 analysts have issued a range of ratings for Reddit Inc, reflecting a shift in sentiment. The latest assessments include 10 bullish, 6 somewhat bullish, 8 indifferent, and 1 bearish rating. Analysts have adjusted the average price target down to 148.12, a significant drop from the previous target of 180.57. Notably, Loop Capital reduced its target from 210.00 to 200.00 while maintaining a Buy rating. Wells Fargo lowered its target from 168.00 to 115.00. Conversely, Citigroup raised its target from 150.00 to 158.00, highlighting the mixed perspectives among analysts. Social media discussions have echoed Loop Capital's recent downgrade announcement, reinforcing the market's attention on these adjustments.

BABA | -2.3% | -51.4B
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd | Broadline Retail
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd has adjusted the conversion rate for its $4.5 billion convertible bonds due in 2031, as disclosed in a filing with the Hong Kong stock exchange. The conversion rate was revised from 9.7271 to 9.8915 ADSs per $1,000 principal amount, effective June 12. Additionally, the maximum conversion rate increased from 12.6452 to 12.8589 ADSs. This adjustment raised the total number of ordinary shares that could be issued upon full conversion to 514.36 million, up from 505.81 million. Following this announcement, Alibaba's shares experienced a decline of approximately 3% during afternoon trading on the same day. Meanwhile, Alibaba's Qwen AI platform has gained traction within the developer community, with users on Huggingface creating 130,000 custom models based on Qwen, ranking it fifth for open contributions.

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