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Monday, June 16

Noteworthy macro moves today: Oil (WTI) -2.3%. Ethereum +2.7%. Copper +1.4%. 

Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated, with missile exchanges continuing to impact market sentiment. Despite these developments, investors are cautiously optimistic (as reflected in reduced risk premia ono the day) and they anticipate the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, but any dovish signals could further weaken the US dollar.

Recent economic data from China has shown mixed results: retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year in May, while industrial production growth eased slightly to 5.8%. These figures reflect ongoing recovery efforts amid a backdrop of global trade uncertainties that may influence central bank policies worldwide.

In Europe, inflationary pressures remain subdued as Italy reported an annual consumer price increase of just 1.6% for May—below expectations—and wage growth across the Eurozone slowed down significantly in Q1 2025 compared to previous quarters' gains, indicating potential challenges ahead for European Central Bank policymakers amidst rising geopolitical risks and energy prices influenced by Middle Eastern conflicts.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [-2.1%]
The United States Oil Fund LP (USO) has seen a price decline of 2.1% since Friday, following a large spike towards the end of last week. Meanwhile, OPEC's recent report maintains its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026, while projecting a reduced increase in oil supply outside OPEC+ for 2026. Brent crude prices have decreased despite geopolitical tensions, now sitting around $73.80. Social media discussions highlight Israel's military actions against Iran's oil industry, raising concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply. Additionally, U.S. drilling rigs have dropped to their lowest level since 2021, and Iran is reportedly considering closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil route. The situation continues to evolve, affecting market dynamics and sentiment surrounding USO.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) [+2.7%]
Ethereum (ETH/USD) has experienced a price increase amid escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, which have raised concerns over potential oil supply disruptions. This uncertainty may lead to increased interest in cryptocurrencies as safe-haven assets. Recent social media activity highlights a significant inflow into digital asset investment products, totaling $1.9 billion last week, with Ethereum accounting for $583 million—its strongest inflow since February. This brings Ethereum's year-to-date total to a record figure. Additionally, discussions on social media reflect optimism regarding ETH's price targets, with users noting that daily support levels continue to hold, suggesting stability in its price movement. Expectations for a steady interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve this week may also influence market dynamics surrounding Ethereum.

INCY | +8.9% | +1.5B
Incyte Corp | Biotechnology
Incyte Corporation's stock has seen a notable increase following several significant announcements. Stifel upgraded the company to a buy rating with a price target of 107. Positive late-breaking data for Incyte's first-in-class mutCALR-targeted therapy, INCA033989, were presented at the EHA2025 Congress. The data indicated that 86% of patients with essential thrombocythemia achieved a complete or partial hematologic response at doses of 400 mg and above. Furthermore, Incyte announced a collaboration with QIAGEN to develop a novel diagnostic panel for myeloproliferative neoplasms, utilizing next-generation sequencing technology to enhance global patient testing. This partnership aims to bolster Incyte's investigational therapies portfolio, particularly in the field of oncology diagnostics.

X | +5.1% | +628.6M
United States Steel Corp | Steel
United States Steel Corp's shares surged in premarket trading following President Donald Trump's approval of Nippon Steel's $14.9 billion acquisition of the company. This approval concludes an 18-month negotiation process that involved national security assessments. The deal requires both companies to sign a national security agreement with the U.S. government, committing to invest approximately $11 billion by 2028 and adhering to governance and trade provisions. Concurrently, discussions on social media highlighted the significance of this partnership, with a procedural development from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit keeping related cases in abeyance. This backdrop of strategic investment and partnership appears to be positively influencing market sentiment surrounding United States Steel Corp.

PLTR | +2.4% | +7.6B
Palantir Technologies Inc | Application Software
Palantir Technologies Inc's stock has shown upward momentum, reflecting a new street-high price target reported. This report underscores the company's steady trajectory and strong earnings. Additionally, Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale is collaborating with Anduril founder Palmer Luckey to invest in a cryptocurrency-friendly banking startup named "Erebor," which aims to provide stability for tech entrepreneurs. Recent operational performance for Q1 FY2025 surpassed EPS and revenue estimates, with U.S. revenue increasing significantly year-over-year, driven by demand for AI products and strategic agreements such as a NATO deal. Discussions on social media noted that Palantir's stock has experienced considerable yearly fluctuations, including a substantial increase so far in 2025, and reached new record weekly and daily closing highs recently.

ASTS | +3.5% | +362.6M
AST SpaceMobile Inc | Alternative Carriers
AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS) has seen its stock price surge by 3.4% in pre-market trading, following a significant announcement regarding a comprehensive agreement with multiple spectrum-based companies. This development has propelled ASTS to an all-time high, reflecting a remarkable rally over the past year and a substantial rise in 2025. Discussions on social media have highlighted this spectrum expansion deal, noting its potential to enhance the company's competitive position against established players like Starlink. Additionally, there is growing awareness of ASTS's future technology developments, including the integration of Minima's Arm chips in upcoming smartphones. Despite a quarterly revenue of $0.72 million falling short of expectations, brokerages maintain a consensus buy rating for the stock, underlining the market's optimistic outlook on its long-term growth prospects.

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