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Thursday, February 19

Noteworthy macro moves today: Oil (WTI) +2.3%. USD/CNH +0.2%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: Walmart Inc (WMT) -2.0%. Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) +1.6%. Mastercard Inc (MA) -0.8%. 

Global equity markets are trading lower due to concerns over inflation and geopolitical tensions. U.S. Treasury securities are experiencing their worst performance streak in months, influenced by rising inflation fears ahead of critical economic data releases.

In the U.S., initial jobless claims released this morning fell to a lower-than-expected level of approximately 225K, indicating continued strength in the labor market. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to a five-month high of 16.3 in February, surpassing expectations and reflecting moderate strength in business activity despite some slowing in shipments.

Geopolitical tensions are also impacting markets, as reports indicate that the U.S. military is prepared for potential strikes against Iran amid ongoing negotiations regarding nuclear agreements. This has contributed to rising oil prices and increased volatility across financial markets as investors react to these developments.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) [-2.0%]
Ethereum's price has dropped significantly, slipping below 2,000 amid negative market sentiment. This decline coincides with a surge in gold prices above 5,000 an ounce due to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning potential U.S. military action against Iran. Additionally, oil prices have risen, further impacting market dynamics. Social media discussions reveal concerns over whale selling, ETF outflows, and hawkish Federal Reserve minutes affecting risk assets. Notably, billionaire Peter Thiel has completely exited his Ethereum treasury firm ETHZilla, selling his entire stake. In related movements, Bitcoin has also decreased slightly, reflecting broader market trends that may be influencing Ethereum's current performance.

United States Oil Fund LP (USO) [+1.9%]
Crude oil prices have surged, with Brent crude futures rising and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also increasing, driven by escalating military tensions in the Middle East amid stalled U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations. Reports suggest a potential imminent conflict between the two nations, which has led traders to reassess geopolitical risks affecting energy markets. Additionally, the American Petroleum Institute reported a decline in U.S. crude inventories by approximately 609,000 barrels for the week ending February 13, contrasting sharply with a significant build in the prior period. This tightening of supply conditions is further supporting bullish sentiment in oil markets.

EBAY | +7.2% | +3.2B
eBay Inc | Broadline Retail
eBay Inc. has announced a $1.2 billion acquisition of Depop from Etsy, aimed at attracting younger consumers, with the deal expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, pending regulatory approvals. The company's Q4 earnings report revealed a 15% year-over-year revenue increase to $2.97 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.87 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were reported at $1.41, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.35. For the first quarter, eBay anticipates revenue between $3.00 billion and $3.05 billion, above market expectations. The firm also announced a 7% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.31 per share and an additional $2 billion stock repurchase program, reflecting its financial health and commitment to shareholders. Following these announcements, eBay shares rose over 7% in after-hours trading.

OXY | +5.6% | +2.5B
Occidental Petroleum Corp | Integrated Oil & Gas
Occidental Petroleum Corp reported its fourth-quarter earnings, achieving an adjusted EPS of $0.31, exceeding the analyst estimate of $0.18. The company generated revenues of $5.42 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of $5.62 billion. Notably, Occidental raised its dividend by 8% to $0.26 per share and announced a cash tender offer for up to $700 million in senior notes to enhance financial flexibility. Additionally, Kinetik, a pipeline operator backed by Occidental, is exploring a sale amid increasing demand for natural gas. In social media discussions, the company's net sales were noted at $5.11 billion, surpassing estimates of $5.01 billion, with an adjusted net income of $315 million against an expectation of $114.8 million. Following these results, OXY shares rose by 3.6% in premarket trading, reflecting positive market sentiment surrounding the earnings report and potential takeover interest in Kinetik Holdings.

CVNA | -9.7% | -6.4B
Carvana Co | Automotive Retail
Carvana Co's stock has dropped significantly following multiple analyst downgrades on price targets. BofA Securities reduced its target from 460 to 400, Evercore ISI from 430 to 390, and RBC Capital from 500 to 440. The company's fourth-quarter financial results revealed an adjusted EBITDA of 511 million, missing the consensus estimate of 534.84 million, although revenue of 5.603 billion exceeded expectations. Despite reporting an EPS of 4.22 against an estimate of 1.12 and record retail unit sales of 163,522 vehicles, the stock fell sharply in after-hours trading. This decline was attributed to the lowest gross profit per unit in eight quarters and rising reconditioning costs. Social media discussions reflected shock at the stock's performance, with concerns about future profitability and cash flow generation. The overall sentiment remains negative despite some analysts reiterating buy ratings.

DE | +6.4% | +11.1B
Deere & Co | Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Deere & Co. reported first-quarter earnings today, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of 2.42, surpassing analyst expectations of 2.02. The company achieved net sales of 9.61 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of 7.59 billion, reflecting a 13% year-over-year increase. Despite this revenue growth, net income for the quarter was reported at 656 million, a decline of 25% compared to the previous year. Deere's chairman and CEO, John May, expressed optimism regarding demand recovery in construction and small agriculture segments, noting that 2026 is expected to mark the cycle's bottom. Additionally, the company raised its fiscal year 2026 net income guidance to a range of 4.5 billion to 5 billion, up from a prior estimate of 4.0 billion to 4.75 billion. Strong sales performances were recorded in the Small Agriculture & Turf and Construction & Forestry segments, with respective increases of 24% and 34%.

DASH | +5.9% | +4.5B
DoorDash Inc | Restaurants
DoorDash Inc has seen a significant rise in its stock price, gaining momentum following its fourth-quarter earnings report. KeyBanc raised its price target to 280, citing robust Gross Order Volume trends and profitability in newer verticals. BofA Securities increased its target to 272, maintaining a Buy rating, while Truist Securities set a new target of 340 with a similar rating. Despite some analysts reducing their targets, the overall sentiment remains positive. The company reported Q4 revenue of 3.96 billion, slightly below the estimate of 3.99 billion, with earnings per share of 0.48, missing expectations of 0.59. Total orders reached 903 million, with marketplace gross order value at 29.68 billion. Looking ahead, DoorDash projects Q1 marketplace gross order value between 31 billion and 31.8 billion, although concerns about profitability persist due to anticipated higher spending in the quarter.

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