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Wednesday, February 25

Noteworthy macro moves today: Ethereum +6.7%. Bitcoin +3.9%. USD/CNH -0.3%. Noteworthy US mega-cap moves today: UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) +1.1%. Visa Inc (V) +0.6%. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) +0.3%. 

Global equity markets are trading higher following positive sentiment from U.S. markets and easing concerns over artificial intelligence disruptions, particularly ahead of Nvidia's earnings report later today. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the gains with a notable rebound after previous losses, reflecting investor optimism as consumer confidence improved in February.

In the U.S., the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate was released this morning, falling to 6.09%, its lowest since September 2022. This decline may stimulate housing market activity despite mixed mortgage application trends showing only a modest increase of 0.4%. The decrease in borrowing costs is seen as a potential catalyst for increased homebuying interest amid ongoing economic uncertainties.

Additionally, Germany's GfK Consumer Confidence Index fell to -24.7 for March, missing expectations and indicating rising pessimism among consumers regarding their financial outlook amidst geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. This data suggests that while there are signs of economic recovery in some areas, consumer sentiment remains fragile and could significantly impact future spending behaviors.

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) [+4.0%]
Spot silver increased significantly, reaching its highest level since early February. This rise coincided with a positive performance from iShares Silver Trust and various silver mining companies. The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to a weakening U.S. dollar and rising gold prices, alongside geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran, which have heightened demand for safe-haven assets. Social media discussions highlighted that SLV options are performing well, with specific call options noted as being in the money. Additionally, the United States Copper Index Fund also saw an increase, reflecting broader market movements that may influence SLV's recent price change.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) [+3.6%]
Bitcoin (BTC) has increased by approximately 3.6% during Wednesday's market hours. Truist Wealth has broadened its investment offerings to include cryptocurrency, providing clients access to SEC-registered spot bitcoin ETFs from Fidelity and BlackRock. This development aligns with a daily return for Bitcoin that has risen nearly 3.5%, coinciding with positive market sentiment influenced by easing concerns over AI disruptions and geopolitical tensions. Social media discussions have noted hedge funds and financial advisors as significant sellers in Q4, reducing ETF exposure by around 25,000 BTC. Additionally, rumors of a potential 0% capital gains tax on digital assets have surfaced, suggesting a possible boost for the crypto market. Ethereum (ETH) has also experienced a notable increase of over 6%, indicating a strong correlation with Bitcoin's performance.

GDDY | -17.1% | -1.8B
GoDaddy Inc | Internet Services & Infrastructure
GoDaddy Inc. reported its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 financial results, revealing earnings per share of $1.80, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.59. Revenue matched expectations at $1.27 billion. However, the company provided guidance for first-quarter revenue between $1.25 billion and $1.27 billion, below the consensus estimate of $1.28 billion, and projected fiscal year 2026 revenue of $5.195 billion to $5.275 billion, also falling short of the $5.28 billion estimate. Following these announcements, analysts at JPMorgan and Wells Fargo lowered their price targets significantly. On social media, users noted a significant decline in GoDaddy's stock, highlighting a drop after the company missed earnings expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Discussions centered around the implications of the earnings report for the stock's performance.

AXON | +15.9% | +6.2B
Axon Enterprise Inc | Aerospace & Defense
Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON) reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching $797 million, surpassing estimates of $755.4 million. Adjusted earnings per share stood at $2.15, compared to the forecast of $1.60. The company's annual recurring revenue grew by 35% year-over-year to approximately $1.3 billion. For fiscal year 2026, Axon anticipates revenue growth of 27% to 30%, projecting total sales between $3.53 billion and $3.61 billion. Management aims for $6 billion in annual revenue by 2028, with adjusted EBITDA margins around 28%. The positive sentiment on social media reflects excitement about the company's performance and aggressive growth targets, particularly in light of its early monetization of AI capabilities, with new product bookings projected to exceed $1 billion in 2025, nearly tripling that of 2024.

FSLR | -15.7% | -3.4B
First Solar Inc | Semiconductors
First Solar reported its Q4 earnings, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of 4.84, which fell short of the consensus estimate of 5.14. Revenue for the quarter reached 1.68 billion, surpassing expectations of 1.56 billion. However, the company’s guidance for fiscal year 2026 revenue is projected between 4.9 billion and 5.2 billion, significantly below the analyst consensus of 6.12 billion. This disappointing outlook, along with a recent trend of missing earnings estimates, has led to a negative market reaction, with the stock dropping approximately 15.1% since Tuesday. Social media discussions highlighted concerns over tariffs, weak residential demand, and policy uncertainty as contributing factors to the cautious outlook. Despite a brief uptick of 2.4% in the stock prior to the earnings announcement, the mixed results have sparked significant discussions about First Solar's competitive positioning, particularly in light of Tesla's solar manufacturing plans.

DEO | -10.9% | -22.1B
Diageo PLC | Distillers & Vintners
Diageo PLC reported disappointing financial results for the first half of fiscal 2026, with adjusted operating profit of 3.256 billion, falling short of the estimated 3.462 billion. Sales reached 10.5 billion, below the expected 11.149 billion, reflecting a decline in organic net sales by 2.8%, driven by a drop in organic volume of 0.9%. The company has revised its guidance, now anticipating a decrease of 2% to 3% in organic sales for 2026, compared to the previous outlook of flat to slightly down. Additionally, Diageo has reduced its dividend from 0.40 to 0.20 per share, citing challenges in the U.S. market and weakness in Chinese white spirits. Social media discussions highlighted these developments, noting a significant decline in demand in both markets, with U.S. spirits down by 9.3% and Greater China experiencing a 42% drop.

WDAY | -9.4% | -2.9B
Workday Inc | Application Software
Workday Inc. reported its fourth-quarter earnings on February 24, 2026, achieving revenue of 2.53 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate of 2.52 billion. The company reported an adjusted EPS of 2.47, surpassing the expected 2.32. However, the guidance for fiscal 2027 revenue ranged from 9.925 billion to 9.950 billion, below analyst expectations of 10.64 billion to 10.66 billion. Following this announcement, several analysts, including those from Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and Evercore, significantly lowered their price targets. Social media discussions noted a significant decline in Workday's shares, which fell approximately 10% after hours despite the earnings beat. CEO Aneel Bhusri emphasized the importance of AI investments amidst concerns regarding leadership changes and subscription growth challenges.

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